Mark Your Calendar: Election Season is Here
Welcome to the first edition of Invariant’s 2024 Election Update. It may be January 11, but Election Day 2024 is only 299 days away and will be here before we know it. With the White House, all 435 House seats, 34 Senate seats, and 11 governors’ mansions up for grabs in 2024, Invariant is here to provide helpful insight as this year’s election unfolds. From tracking competitive races to unpacking the socioeconomic factors that sway the electorate to providing a forward-looking perspective, our election updates will help you make sense of the complex political landscape and understand how the balance of power in Washington and state capitals could change on November 5. First up, the key dates to watch, plus the most important things to know as primary season kicks off this month.
Presidential
The contest for the Republican Party’s presidential nomination whittled down to five candidates when former New Jersey Governor Chris Christie announced the end of his campaign yesterday. Sen. Tim Scott (R-SC) and former Vice President Mike Pence dropped out of the race last fall. At the moment, the general election looks to be a rematch between President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump. However, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis and former United Nations Ambassador and South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley remain top Republican contenders. They are the only two candidates besides the former President who qualified for last night’s debate in Iowa. During the CNN debate in Des Moines, Trump was also in town but at a separate town hall on Fox News. While both Haley and DeSantis trail Trump significantly in Iowa polling, Haley is within single digits of Trump in recent New Hampshire polls.
In the Iowa Caucus on January 15, candidates will compete for a majority (1,237) of the 2,472 pledged delegates to secure the nomination on the first ballot at the 2024 Republican National Convention in July. The current Real Clear Politics and 538 averages have the former President ahead of his closest opponent by approximately 35 percent in the state.
The New Hampshire primary will be held eight days later January 23. Rep. Dean Philips (D-MN) and author and 2020 presidential candidate Marianne Williamson have announced long-shot campaigns to contest President Biden for the Democratic nomination. Still, early primary state Democratic parties are coalescing in support of the President. The Biden campaign will focus on maintaining his coalition of support amid global conflicts, lingering economic anxiety, and record numbers of migrants at the U.S.-Mexico border. Robert Kennedy Jr., a nephew of former President John F. Kennedy, is running as a third-party candidate, and multiple polls show him polling at over 10 percent against Biden and Trump — enough support to keep him on your radar as a possible spoiler in some states by attracting voters away from the major party candidates.
Legal decisions in Colorado and Maine could also impact the presidential election. The Colorado Supreme Court and Maine’s Secretary of State have ruled that the former President is ineligible to appear on the primary ballot in each state due to the 14th Amendment’s prohibition against holding public office for those who have “engaged in insurrection.” The Trump campaign appealed Maine’s decision to its Superior Court and the Colorado decision to the U.S. Supreme Court. On January 5, the U.S. Supreme Court granted Trump’s request to review the Colorado ruling. Both states will keep Trump on the ballot while the appeals proceed. Former President Trump is facing similar challenges in other states, and a decision from the U.S. Supreme Court will likely apply to all current and future decisions at the state level.
House of Representatives
In the House, Republicans currently hold a tight 220–213 majority with two vacancies after the expulsion of Rep. George Santos (R-NY) on December 1 and former Speaker of the House Kevin McCarthy’s (R-CA) resignation on December 31. While House Majority Leader Steve Scalise is away from Washington for cancer treatment until February, Republicans’ margin will shrink to 218–213 when Rep. Bill Johnson (R-OH) resigns on January 21 — a primary is set for March 19 and special election for June 11. The special election to replace Santos will be held on February 13 and is currently rated as a Toss-Up between former Rep. Tom Suozzi (D-NY) and county legislator Mazi Melesa Pilip (R-NY). The primary election for McCarthy’s seat will be held on March 19, with the special election on May 21. Rep. Brian Higgins (D-NY), who plans to resign in February, will also be replaced in special elections before the 2024 general election. However, given the respective district demographics, the Johnson, McCarthy, and Higgins special elections are not expected to change the partisan makeup of the House.
Congress has seen a wave of retirements with 23 House Democrats and 19 House Republicans announcing they will not seek re-election, and more expected throughout the year. With 74 races considered competitive, control of the House is again up for grabs in 2024. The Cook Political Report currently rates 24 competitive races as “Toss-Up,” with 10 districts having a Democrat incumbent and 14 with a Republican incumbent. Additionally, Inside Elections identifies 12 seats as “Toss-Up,” with 6 currently held by Republicans and 5 by Democrats. The twelfth seat was occupied by Rep. George Santos before his expulsion.
House Democrats need to flip just five seats to gain a majority, and the map is in their favor. Republicans currently hold a total of 17 congressional seats in districts carried by President Biden in 2020. Compare that to Democrats with only five seats former President Trump won in 2020. These battleground districts will play a key role in Republican efforts to keep control of the House.
Further, the National Republican Campaign Committee (NRCC) has targeted 37 districts, made up of vulnerable House Democrats and two open seats, as pick-up opportunities. The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) announced 33 competitive Republican-held or open seats they will target in 2024.
With a razor-thin majority in the House going into the 2024 elections, ongoing disputes over redistricting could play an outsized role in the outcome. States like North Carolina, Alabama, and Georgia only recently resolved their congressional maps. Republicans are pleased with the outcomes in North Carolina, where there is a potential to gain up to three seats, and Georgia, where a lawsuit resulted in a fifth seat with a majority Black population and re-drawing Rep. Lucy McBath’s (D-GA) district to favor Republicans. The new map will likely maintain the delegation’s partisan composition of nine Republicans and five Democrats.
However, the U.S. Supreme Court upheld a lower court decision to impose a new map in Alabama that cost Republicans a seat in the state. Meanwhile, states like Louisiana and New York have yet to finalize their 2024 maps. New York’s highest court recently directed the Independent Redistricting Commission to submit a new plan to the New York State Legislature for approval, while Louisiana continues to try to resolve whether the state will be forced to draw a new district that would likely favor Democrats.
Senate
In the Senate, Democrats are gearing up for an uphill battle to maintain or grow their one-seat majority while facing a brutal 2024 election map. Of the 34 Senate seats in the cycle this year, 23 seats are currently held by Democrats (or Independents that caucus with the Democrats), including three seats in states Trump won in 2020 (Ohio, Montana, and West Virginia). Republicans are defending only 11 largely uncompetitive seats this year, needing just one or two seats to reclaim the majority depending on which party wins the White House.
Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee Chair Gary Peters (D-MI) has a difficult task ahead this year. Sen. Joe Manchin’s (D-WV) retirement will almost certainly put West Virginia in Republican hands. Further, Democrats are not likely to take much comfort from the fact that every incumbent Senator won their re-election bid in 2022. This time around, Democrats will need to defend incumbents up for re-election in red states, including Sens. Sherrod Brown (D-OH), Jon Tester (D-MT), Jacky Rosen (D-NV), Bob Casey (D-PA), Tammy Baldwin (D-WI), and an open seat in Michigan left by retiring Sen. Debbie Stabenow (D-MI), all considered battleground states. Additionally, Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (I-AZ) has not announced her plans to run for re-election in the battleground state of Arizona. Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-AZ) jumped into the race with support from former Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi, while Sinema has until April to secure a place on the ballot as an independent if she decides to defend her seat. Former newscaster and 2022 gubernatorial candidate Kari Lake has already locked up the support of Trump and other key Republicans in the Republican primary where her most significant opponent will be Pinal County Sheriff Mark Lamb.
Although Republicans face an easier 2024 election map, National Republican Senatorial Committee Chair Steve Daines (R-MT) still has a difficult job navigating intraparty primary fights, hoping to avoid problematic candidates that could impact the Republicans’ chances of winning Senate control. As these races unfold, we will provide deep dives on the challengers who could win back the majority for the GOP.
The Cook Political Report lists eight Democratic-held Senate seats as Likely, Lean, or Toss-Up. Additionally, Inside Elections currently identifies 31 Senate seat as “In Play,” with 20 of those currently occupied by Democrats and 11 by Republicans.
Governors
This year, 11 governors’ mansions are up for grabs, with Republicans defending 8 and Democrats defending 3. Although these campaigns are for state offices, candidates and voters will be focused on national issues. This is especially true in 2024 as governors are forced to manage the state impacts of national political fights, including the prevalence of abortion state ballot initiatives in the post-Roe v. Wade era and the record numbers of migrant arrivals at the southern border.
The Cook Political Report lists two Democratic-held seats and one Republican-held seat as Likely, Lean, or Toss-Up. Inside Elections has the same makeup but has open elections in North Carolina and New Hampshire rated as Toss-Ups, while Cook Political Report only has New Hampshire rated as a Toss-Up.
