Election Update — Issue 8

83 days until Election Day

With 83 days to go until Election Day, below is our update with a list of key dates and the state of play for House, Senate, and gubernatorial races.

KEY DATES

HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES

This summer Democrats continue to outraise Republican candidates and incumbents as they look to net the 23 seats necessary to take control of the House in November. Democratic candidates outraised 56 Republican incumbents in the second quarter, and more than two dozen Democratic candidates outraised Republicans in open seat districts. Outside groups, however, could make up the difference with the House Republican super PAC — the Congressional Leadership Fund — bringing in a record $51 million in the second quarter and opening field offices in key battleground districts. Both the National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC) and the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) are neck-and-neck with cash on hand, each with over $60 million.

Health care is becoming the top issue for voters this fall with Democrats focusing their attacks on Republican attempts to repeal and replace the Affordable Care Act while talking about protecting those with pre-existing conditions, lowering drug prices, and fighting cuts to Medicare. Republicans are messaging on a broader set of issues including the economy and immigration.

Democrats continue leading in generic congressional ballots with the RealClearPolitics poll average at D +3.9 percent. The largest lead was in December 2017 when Democrats were favored by 13 points on average. A drop of nearly ten points shows the volatility in this upcoming election.

NEWS FROM THE FRONTLINES

• AL-02: Republican Representative Martha Roby held back former Republican Representative Bobby Bright in a runoff on July 17, securing 68 percent of the vote. Voter turnout was lower than expected at 12.7 percent. In the crowded June 5 primary, Roby was unable to clear 50 percent of the vote, forcing her into a runoff with Bright, and despite her earlier criticism of then-candidate Trump, the president tweeted an endorsement during the runoff. Roby is favored to beat Democratic nominee Tabitha Isner in November.
• CA-39: Democratic candidate Gil Cisneros released a poll that found him leading Republican former State Assemblywoman Young Kim by 11 points. However, private Republican polling shows a closer race with Kim in the lead. Both parties are focused on the race to replace retiring Republican Ed Royce.
• CT-05: The state party-endorsed candidate Mary Glassman lost the Democratic primary to teacher Jahana Hayes. Hayes could become the first African-American Democrat to represent Connecticut in Congress and is expected to add a progressive voice to the House Democratic Caucus. She will face Republican nominee Manny Santos in the fall, but this is considered a reliable Democratic seat.
• GA-06: Gun control activist Lucy McBath won the Democratic nomination in the primary runoff on July 24 to face Republican Representative Karen Handel in the general election. McBath won 53.7 percent of the vote against businessman Kevin Abel. McBath and Abel were forced into a runoff after neither received a majority of the votes in a field of four Democratic candidates. McBath stands in contrast to Handel who is endorsed by the National Rifle Association. Handel kept the district red in the expensive special election last year to fill former Representative Tom Price’s seat, and although Democrats would like to flip the seat, they will not devote the same resources as last time with so many other competitive races.
• KS-02: Iditarod dog racer Steve Watkins won the Republican nomination in his first run for political office. He prevailed in a crowded primary field of seven Republican candidates that included four state legislators and a former State House speaker. He will face Democrat Paul Davis in November to replace retiring Republican Representative Lynn Jenkins. Davis previously ran for governor in 2014 and carried the district despite losing statewide.
• KS-03: Attorney and former MMA fighter Sharice Davids won the Democratic primary to face incumbent Republican Representative Kevin Yoder. Davids is Kansas’ first openly gay, Native American congressional nominee. She defeated five other Democratic candidates, including progressive labor lawyer Brent Welder, who was backed by Senator Bernie Sanders (I-VT). Davids is backed by EMILY’s List and is part of the DCCC’s Red-to-Blue program.
• MI-11: Republican businesswoman Lena Epstein will face former U.S. Auto Task Force chief of staff Haley Stevens in November. Both won crowded primaries — with five candidates listed on each parties’ ballot — on August 7 in the race for retiring Republican Representative Dave Trott’s seat. The race is expected to be one of the most competitive in the country as Democrats look to take advantage of the open seat.
• MI-13: While Detroit City Council President Brenda Jones won the Democratic nomination to serve out the two-month remainder of former Democratic Representative John Conyers’ term, she did not win the Democratic nomination for the full two-year term beginning in January. Former State Representative Rashida Tlaib won the Democratic primary race. Tlaib is positioned to become the first Muslim woman elected to Congress as she has no Republican opponent in the fall.
• MN-02: Incumbent Republican Representative Jason Lewis received backlash for recently circulated contentious comments made on his radio show in 2012. Lewis ran unopposed in the Republican primary and will face Democratic nominee Angie Craig in the fall. In 2016, Craig lost to Lewis by less than two percentage points, and Democrats are hoping to leverage this newly discovered controversy to gain a seat in November.
• NY-27: Republican Representative Chris Collins announced he will not run for reelection after being charged with insider trading. Collins can be removed from the ballot only if he dies, moves out of state, or runs for a different office, and there are a significant number of Republican candidates who could run for the seat. Given that Collins has two homes outside of New York, he is expected to be removed from the ballot. Democrats recruited attorney Nate McMurray, who could make the race competitive.
• OH-12: In the special election held August 7, several thousand absentee and provisional votes still need to be counted. Currently Republican State Senator Troy Balderson is up by more than 1,000 votes over Democratic Franklin County Recorder Danny O’Connor. If votes start bending toward O’Connor they could hand him a narrow victory or a shot at an automatic recount, which must be conducted if the results are within 0.5 percentage points. Republicans were forced to spend millions on a seat they comfortably held for decades, potentially foreshadowing challenges in November when Balderson and O’Connor face each other again.
• VA-02: A special prosecutor was appointed to investigate claims that members of Republican Representative Scott Taylor’s staff illegally forged signatures to help an Independent candidate get on the ballot to siphon votes away from the Democratic candidate, retired Naval Commander Elaine Luria. Taylor fired his campaign consultant and followed an earlier decision to fire his campaign manager.
• WA-08: Former Republican State Senator Dino Rossi advanced in the competitive race for retiring Republican Representative Dave Reichert’s seat with 43 percent of the vote. Under the state’s top-two primary system and with some votes still uncounted, it is undecided who will earn the second spot in the general election. Democratic pediatrician Kim Schrier, who was endorsed by EMILY’s List, narrowly leads former Democratic King County prosecutor Jason Rittereiser for the second slot.
• WI-01: Labor organizer and strong fundraiser Randy Bryce won the Democratic nomination in the race for retiring House Speaker Paul Ryan’s seat. He will face former Ryan aide and University of Wisconsin Board of Regents member Bryan Steil, who won a six-way contest on the Republican side. Steil’s campaign had $631,000 on hand by July 25 compared to nearly $1.7 million for Bryce.
• WA-05: Incumbent Republican Representative Cathy McMorris Rodgers gained ground, extending her lead by nearly 7,000 votes in the top-two primary over Democratic candidate Lisa Brown. McMorris Rodgers is facing her toughest race in her 14 years in Congress. The close race is bolstering Democrats’ chances of flipping the district in November.

POLLING PROJECTIONS

The Cook Political Report lists 59 Republican-held seats as Lean or Toss-up as opposed to four Democratic-held seats. Similarly, Inside Elections lists 41 Republican-held seats up-for-grabs as opposed to seven Democratic-held seats. Shifts in designations from our last Election Report are indicated by an asterisk (*). The Cook Political Report shifted 14 races in favor of Democrats and two races in favor of Republicans. Inside Elections shifted four races in favor of Democrats.

SENATE

The Senate returned to Washington this week after Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) cancelled most of the August recess to continue work on executive nominations and appropriations bills. The move keeps Senate Democrats away from campaigning and could hurt reelection efforts, including the 10 incumbents in states Donald Trump carried in 2016.

Democrats are hoping strong recruits and the national environment could put three Republican-held seats into play in Arizona, Nevada, and Tennessee. Public polling shows nominal leads for Democrats in all three states and could bolster against potential losses in deep red states. Democrats must net two additional seats to flip control of the Senate and have a spending advantage in six of the ten top battlegrounds. Republicans are outspending Democrats in Florida, New Jersey, North Dakota, and Wisconsin.

NEWS FROM THE FRONTLINES

• Florida: Incumbent Democratic Senator Bill Nelson is raising concerns that Russian hackers have compromised state and local elections offices, a claim that state, local, and federal officials challenged. Nelson faces Republican Governor Rick Scott in one of the most competitive races this cycle where both sides will spend millions. Public polling shows neither Nelson nor Scott hold a significant edge. Both campaigns could see a boost from coordinated efforts with gubernatorial and House campaigns.
• Hawaii: Senator Mazie Hirono did not face an opponent in the state’s Democratic primary. Ron Curtis, a retired systems engineer, won the Republican primary, but Hirono is widely favored to win reelection in November.
• Michigan: Democratic incumbent Senator Debbie Stabenow will face Republican businessman John James after each won their respective primaries. President Trump endorsed James, calling him a future senator and future star of the Republican party. Trump won Michigan in 2016 by 0.3 percent.
• Minnesota: Incumbent Senators Amy Klobuchar and Tina Smith easily advanced through their respective Democratic primaries. Smith defeated former White House ethics lawyer Richard Painter while Klobuchar faced nominal opposition in her primary. Smith faces Republican State Senator Karin Housley in the special election to finish the final two years of former Senator Al Franken’s term. Klobuchar will face Republican State Representative Jim Newberger.
• Missouri: Attorney General Josh Hawley won the Republican primary and will face incumbent Senator Claire McCaskill, one of the most endangered Senate Democrats in November and whose campaign Russian hackers reportedly targeted. Trump won Missouri in 2016 by nearly 20 points while McCaskill defeated controversial Representative Todd Akin in her last reelection bid in 2012. Outside groups are spending heavily in the state.
• Nevada: A new Suffolk University/Reno Gazette Journal poll found Republican Senator Dean Heller narrowly leading Democratic Representative Jacky Rosen 41 percent to 40 percent with close to nine percent of voters undecided. Heller is the most vulnerable Republican incumbent this cycle, and his shifting stance on health care, a growing concern for voters, is providing leverage to Democrats looking to flip the seat.
• New Mexico: The Libertarian Party is recruiting former governor and 2016 presidential candidate Gary Johnson after their candidate Aubrey Dunn quit the race. Incumbent Democratic Senator Martin Heinrich is widely favored over Republican Mick Rich, and a new poll found Heinrich would easily win a three-way race with Rich and Johnson.
• Tennessee: Former Democratic Governor Phil Bredesen and Republican Representative Marsha Blackburn easily won their respective primaries and will face off in a potential Democratic pick up opportunity. Bredesen leads Blackburn in public polling, but his advantage continues to shrink as Blackburn and outside groups are going up on the air. Republican Senator Bob Corker declined to seek reelection, creating an open seat for Republicans to defend.
• Washington: Democratic incumbent Senator Maria Cantwell easily took the top spot in the state’s top-two primary and will face Republican Susan Hutchinson in November. Hutchinson received only 24 percent of the primary vote and poses little risk to Cantwell in the general election.
• Wisconsin: State Senator Leah Vukmir defeated businessman Kevin Nicholson in the Republican primary and will face incumbent Democratic Senator Tammy Baldwin. Vukmir drew support from most of the state’s Republican congressional delegation including Speaker Paul Ryan while Nicholson had support from Republican megadonor Richard Uihlein and Senators Ted Cruz and Mike Lee. While Baldwin is favored in November, she is warning Democrats to not take the race for granted with spending already topping $35 million in total.

POLLING PROJECTIONS

The Cook Political Report lists six Democratic-held seats as Lean or Toss-up as opposed to four Republican-held seats. Inside Elections also lists seven Democratic seats up-for-grabs as opposed to three Republican-held seats. The Cook Political Report shifted two races in favor of Democrats.

GOVERNORS

Thirty-six states will hold gubernatorial elections in the fall with several open seats where Democrats are hoping to capitalize on the national environment to flip some governor’s mansions. Republicans currently hold 33 seats while Democrats hold 16. Alaska Governor Bill Walker is an Independent.

Republican governors in blue states must navigate President Trump’s deepening unpopularity in their states against their own political brands as they seek reelection. Charlie Baker (MA), Larry Hogan (MD), and Phil Scott (VT) are all running for second terms and hope their personal popularity carries them across the finish line against the national environment. Meanwhile, the President’s involvement in Republican primaries could put seats in Georgia and Kansas into play as controversial candidates emerge over more establishment-favored picks.

NEWS FROM THE FRONTLINES

• Connecticut: Businessman Ned Lamont won the Democratic primary and will face Republican Bob Stefanowski in November. Lamont, who lost the 2010 gubernatorial primary, was favored after receiving strong support at the state Democratic convention in May and a robust get-out-the-vote effort. Incumbent Democratic Governor Dannel Malloy is not seeking reelection, and Republicans hope to link Lamont to Malloy who suffers from poor favorability numbers.
• Florida: Representative Ron DeSantis released a primary campaign ad highlighting President Trump’s endorsement interspersed with clips of DeSantis saying “Make America Great Again,” teaching his daughter how to “build the wall,” and reading The Art of the Deal to his son. DeSantis’ campaign released a poll showing a large lead over Agriculture Commissioner Adam Putnam in the Republican primary. Former Representative Gwen Graham is leading the Democratic field, which includes former Miami Beach Mayor Philip Levine, businessman Jeff Greene, and Tallahassee Mayor Andrew Gillum.
• Georgia: Secretary of State Brian Kemp defeated Lieutenant Governor Casey Cagle in the Republican runoff. Kemp, whom President Trump endorsed, also appeared at campaign rallies with Vice President Mike Pence. He faces Democrat Stacey Abrams who raised more than $6 million since winning the Democratic primary. Incumbent Republican Governor Nathan Deal is term limited and had endorsed Cagle in the runoff election.
• Hawaii: Incumbent Governor David Ige defeated Representative Colleen Hanabusa in the Democratic primary and should safely win reelection in November. Ige, who is serving his first term, came under fire for his administration’s handling of the state’s false missile alert earlier this year. However, Ige’s numbers rose as he dealt with the state’s flooding and ongoing Kilauea volcano eruption. He faces Republican State Representative Andria Tupola in November.
• Kansas: Governor Jeff Colyer conceded to Secretary of State Kris Kobach in the contentious Republican primary. Colyer replaced former Governor Sam Brownback after he was nominated to serve in the State Department while Kobach received President Trump’s endorsement. Democrats are hoping their nominee, State Senator Laura Kelly, combined with Kobach’s controversial profile, could put the race into play in November.
• Michigan: Former State Senate Minority Leader Gretchen Whitmer and Michigan Attorney General Bill Schuette won the Democratic and Republican primaries respectively, setting up a competitive contest in November. Notably, term-limited Republican Governor Rick Snyder refused to back Schuette. More than two million votes were cast in the primary, a record turnout for midterm primaries.
• Minnesota: Former two-term Governor Tim Pawlenty failed to advance through the Republican primary with Hennepin County Commissioner Jeff Johnson defeating Pawlenty 53 to 44 percent. Pawlenty jumped in the race in April, but Johnson ran to his right, appealing to President Trump’s supporters and criticizing Pawlenty for his time in Washington. Representative Tim Walz won the three-way Democratic primary, defeating State Representative Erin Murphy and Attorney General Lori Swanson. It remains to be seen whether Republicans will invest heavily in Johnson, who lost the 2014 gubernatorial race to incumbent Governor Mark Dayton.
• New York: Incumbent Governor Andrew Cuomo continues to lead challenger Cynthia Nixon ahead of the state’s September primary. Cuomo maintains a 60 to 29 percent lead over Nixon who is hoping to capitalize on progressive energy in her longshot bid.
• South Dakota: Democrat Billie Sutton released an internal poll showing Republican Representative Kristi Noem holding a narrow lead of 46 to 42. The poll claims Sutton is drawing crossover support from rural Republican voters as well as independent voters. Sutton is a state senator and rancher. The state last elected a Democratic governor in 1974.
• Tennessee: Businessman Bill Lee won the Republican primary defeating State House Speaker Beth Harwell, former state economic development commissioner Randy Body, and Representative Diane Black. Vice President Pence endorsed Black, but President Trump remained on the sidelines. Former Nashville Mayor Karl Dean defeated State House Minority Leader Craig Fitzhugh in the Democratic primary after outraising Fitzhugh 15 to 1.
• Vermont: Republican Governor Phil Scott faces reelection in a deep blue state and saw his popularity among Republican voters fall after he signed legislation to expand background checks, raise minimum age requirements, and ban bump stocks and some magazines. Democrat Christine Hallquist became the first transgender candidate to win a major party gubernatorial nomination but faces an uphill battle against Scott in November.
• Wisconsin: Republican incumbent Governor Scott Walker will face State Superintendent Tony Evers in his bid for a third term. Walker is warning supporters that special election results and the national environment indicate significant challenges for the general election. An NBC News/Marist College poll found Walker trailing Evers by 13 points with only 34 percent of registered voters saying Walker should win reelection in the fall.

POLLING PROJECTIONS

The Cook Political Report lists 11 Republican-held seats as Lean or Toss-up as opposed to four Democratic-held seats. Inside Elections lists 11 Republican seats up-for-grabs as opposed to four Democratic-held seats. These numbers do not include Governor Bill Walker (I-AK). The Cook Political Report shifted three races in favor of Democrats and one race in favor of Republicans.

AD OF THE MONTH

Representative Ron DeSantis (R-FL) released a new lighthearted 30-second ad for his Florida gubernatorial campaign, and it is full of love for President Trump. The ad does not contain substance on his platform except for his loyalty to the President, including a scene building a wall of toy blocks with his child. DeSantis is counting on building support with Trump’s base to give him an edge over his competitor Adam Putnam in the Republican primary later this month.