Election Update — Issue 6

116 days until Election Day

More than 75 percent of registered voters say the country is on the wrong track, and President Joe Biden’s approval rating is a dismal 33 percent, according to a recent New York Times/Siena College poll. Of the 13 presidents during the polling era, according to FiveThirtyEight none has been in worse shape at this point in his first term.

Conventional wisdom is a president loses House seats in his first midterm election. Biden is no different. The Cook Political Report forecasts a GOP gain of 20–35 seats, based on analysis of districts likely to flip which the incumbent party holds, but the opposite party’s presidential nominee carried in the previous election. “In the last three midterm elections, a majority of the seats gained by the party not holding the White House (anywhere from 56 percent to 74 percent), came from districts that either the president carried by less than five points or had lost in the previous election.” Cook puts those opportunities at a low of 19 seats and a high of 41 seats, before factoring in Republican seats that may flip to Democrats (10 current ratings). Compounding the challenge for Democrats is the two-thirds of voters across 31 states who switched their official party registration in the past year to the Republican party, most pronounced in the suburbs, according to The Associated Press.

American news consumption continues to fall, with 42 percent reporting they sometimes or often actively avoid the news, and recent events are not moving voter sentiment. In the New York Times/Siena College poll, voters rank jobs and the economy as the most important problem facing the country, followed closely by inflation and the cost of living. Abortion and gun policies rate as the most important issue for five percent and ten percent of voters, respectively.

With 116 days to go until Election Day, here is Invariant’s latest outlook on the state of play in the House, Senate, and gubernatorial races to watch.

KEY DATES

HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES

Reps. Rodney Davis (R-IL) and Marie Newman (D-IL) are the latest incumbents to fall, losing in their Member-on-Member primaries against Reps. Mary Miller (R-IL) and Sean Casten (D-IL) in newly drawn districts, respectively. Rep. Steven Palazzo (R-MS) also lost his seat in the June 28 runoff to Jackson County Sheriff Mike Ezell.

The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) narrowly bested the National Republican Campaign Committee (NRCC) in fundraising last month, raising $17 million and $16.5 million, respectively. Coming into July, the NRCC has $109 million on hand, compared to the DCCC’s $121.5 million.

Redistricting

The once-a-decade exercise to draw House districts is now final despite ongoing legal challenges. As the maps stand, Democrats secured an additional six seats leaning their way, Republicans neither gained nor lost any seats, and six fewer seats are considered highly competitive. Of the approved maps, 14 states are engaged in active litigation, though it is unlikely any maps will change before the midterm elections.

Louisiana was the last state to set its map after the U.S. Supreme Court issued an order halting a challenge on the grounds district lines illegally diluted Black voters’ influence under the Voting Rights Act. The map preserves Louisiana’s current breakdown of five strongly Republican, majority-white seats and one solidly Democratic, majority-Black seat.

Primary and Runoff Results

• AL-05: Madison County Commission Chairman Dale Strong defeated former Assistant Secretary of the Army Casey Wardynski in the June 21 Republican runoff election. Strong will now represent the GOP in the race to replace Rep. Mo Brooks (R), who lost his bid to replace retiring Sen. Richard Shelby (R). Strong will face Democratic nominee Kathy Warner-Stanton in the November general election. The seat is rated Solid Republican.
• AK-AL: Former Governor Sarah Palin (R), Nick Begich (R), and State Rep. Mary Peltola (D) will vie in the August 16 ranked choice special election to finish the late Rep. Don Young’s (R) term. Independent Al Gross, who came in third with 12 percent of the vote, dropped out of the race too late for election officials to replace him. Alaskans will also choose candidates to faceoff in November for a full term.
• CA-09: Rep. Josh Harder (D) will face Republican Tom Patti, a member of the San Joaquin County Board of Supervisors, in the general election after election-night returns were too close to call. The seat shifted from Likely Democratic to Lean Democratic.
• CA-13: Blue Dog-endorsed Democrat Adam Gray will run against Republican farmer John Duarte in the general election. Duarte had a strong showing, taking 34 percent of the vote while Gray took 31 percent after splitting with another Democratic candidate. The seat shifted from Lean Democratic to a toss-up.
• CA-22: Republican Rep. David Valadao defeated challenger Chris Mathys and will face New Dem-backed challenger Rudy Salas. The seat is rated a toss-up.
• CA-37: Democrats Sydney Kamlager and Jan Perry will compete in the general election for this open seat. Kamlager took first place and is the favorite to enter Congress next January, while Perry narrowly beat third-place finisher Daniel Lee in a race too close to call on election night. The seat is rated Solid Democratic.
• CO-07: New Dem candidate State Sen. Brittany Pettersen ran uncontested to replace outgoing Rep. Ed Perlmutter (D). Pettersen will face military veteran and oil and gas project manager Erik Aadland, who beat Tim Reichert and Laurel Imer for the Republican nomination with 47.9 percent of the vote. The seat is rated Likely Democratic.
• CO-08: State Sen. Barbara Kirkmeyer defeated three challengers in the Republican primary with 39 percent of the vote and will run against Yadira Caraveo, a pediatrician and state general assemblymember, who ran unopposed for the Democratic nomination. The seat is rated a toss-up.
• GA-01: First-time candidate and lawyer Wade Herring upset frontrunner and three-time candidate Joyce Griggs in the June 21 Democratic runoff election, defeating the Army veteran by nearly 5,000 votes. Herring will face the Trump-endorsed, four-term Rep. Buddy Carter (R) in November. The seat is rated Solid Republican.
• GA-02: Thomasville attorney Chris West upset former Army Captain Jeremy Hunt in the June 21 Republican runoff, despite being outspent roughly 9–1 and finishing second in the May primary. West now faces Rep. Sanford Bishop (D), who has represented the region for three decades. The seat is rated Likely Democratic.
• GA-06: Marine veteran Rich McCormick defeated Trump-endorsed Jake Evans in the June 21 Republican runoff to face Democratic nominee Bob Christian in the newly drawn sixth district. The seat is rated Solid Republican.
• GA-07: Mark Gonsalves defeated Mike Corbin in the June 21 Republican runoff and will challenge Rep. Lucy McBath (D) in November. The seat is rated Solid Democratic.
• GA-10: Two runoff elections were decided on June 21: Democrat Tabitha Johnson-Green defeated Jessica Fore with 64 percent of the vote, and Republican trucking company owner and former candidate Mike Collins defeated Trump-backed Vernon Jones with nearly 75 percent of the vote. The seat is rated Solid Republican.
• IL-01: Seventeen Democrats entered the race to replace retiring Democratic Rep. Bobby Rush, who has represented Illinois’ first district since 1993. Jonathan Jackson, the son of Rev. Jesse Jackson, clinched victory with 28.3 percent of the vote, defeating the Rush-endorsed candidate Karin Norrington-Reaves. Jackson will face veteran and nonprofit executive Eric Carlson in November, after Carlson narrowly defeated opponent Jeff Regnier. The seat is rated Solid Democratic.
• IL-03: The new map merged two Chicago suburbs to create a Hispanic plurality seat on Chicago’s North Side. State Rep. Delia Ramirez (D) will face Justin Burau (R) in November. The seat is rated Solid Democratic.
• IL-06: Rep. Sean Casten defeated Rep. Marie Newman for the Democratic nomination 67.9 to 29 percent following redistricting, and will face Republican Orlando Park Mayor Keith Pekau in November. The seat is rated Lean Democratic.
• IL-07: Rep. Danny Davis defeated Democratic challenger Kina Collins, despite Collins outraising the incumbent. Davis will run unopposed in the general election. The seat is rated Solid Democratic.
• IL-13: Nikki Budzinksi, former senior advisor to Governor JB Pritzker and chief of staff for the Office of Management and Budget in the Biden-Harris Administration,will face Republican Regan Deering in November. The seat is rated Lean Democratic.
• IL-15: Trump-backed Rep. Mary Miller defeated five-term Rep. Rodney Davis to earn the Republican nomination. Davis moved to run in Miller’s heavily red district after redistricting turned his former district blue. Miller faces the uncontested Democratic nominee Paul Lange in the general. The seat is rated Solid Republican.
• IL-17: Rockford meteorologist Eric Sorenson secured the Democratic nomination in the race to replace retiring Democratic Rep. Cheri Bustos with 39.7 percent of the vote in a crowded primary race, which included a former state representative and a Rockford town alderman. Sorenson will face Army Reserve Judge Advocate General Esther Joy King in November, after King easily defeated small business owner Charles Helmick in the Republican primary. The race is rated a toss-up.
• MS-03: Republican Rep. Michael Guest defeated Naval Reserve pilot Michael Cassidy in the June 28 runoff. After only 300 votes separated the two in the primary, Guest defeated Cassidy with nearly 70 percent of the runoff vote. Guest faces Democratic nominee Shuwaski Young in the general. The seat is rated Solid Republican.
• MS-04: Jackson County Sheriff Mike Ezell ousted Rep. Steven Palazzo in the June 28 Republican runoff with 54 percent of the vote. In November, Ezell will face Democrat Johnny DuPree and Libertarian Alden Patrick Johnson. The seat is rated Solid Republican.
• NE-01: Republican Mike Flood won the June 28 special election to serve the remainder of former Rep. Jeff Fortenberry’s term. Flood and Democratic State Sen. Patty Pansing Brooks will face off again in the general for a full term. The race is rated Solid Republican.
• OK-02: Out of a crowded 14-candidate field, Republican state legislators Avery Frix and Josh Brecheen advance to an August 23 runoff election, with 14.7 and 13.8 percent respectively. The winner will face Democrat Naomi Andrews and Independent Ben Robinson in November. The seat is rated Solid Republican.
• TX-15: After a recount, Michelle Vallejo (D) defeated Ruben Ramirez (D) for the Democratic nomination in this open seat. Vallejo will face Republican small business owner Monica De La Cruz, who won her primary outright in March. The seat is rated Lean Republican.
• TX-28: Rep. Henry Cuellar (D) defeated progressive challenger Jessica Cisneros after a recount confirmed the election-night returns. Cuellar will face Republican Cassy Garcia, a former staffer to Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX) and Trump White House aide who won her May runoff election. The seat is rated a toss-up.
• VA-02: Rep. Elaine Luria (D) will face a challenge from Republican State Sen. and Navy veteran Jen Kiggans. Luria raised more than $1.8 million last quarter and is reporting over $4.3 million cash on hand. The seat is rated a toss-up.
• VA-07: Rep. Abigail Spanberger ran uncontested for the Democratic nomination. She faces a challenge from Yesli Vega, a Republican sheriff’s deputy and former head of Latinos for Youngkin, who emerged from a crowded primary with 28.9 percent of the vote. The seat is rated a toss-up.

From the Frontlines

• AZ-01: GOP candidate Josh Barnett received the endorsement of gubernatorial candidate Kari Lake in his bid to oust Rep. David Schweikert (R) in the primary. Small business owner Elijah Norton is also seeking the Republican nomination. Head Start program director Jevin Hodge was endorsed by prominent members of the Congressional Black Caucus and Congressional Hispanic Caucus in his contest against Adam Metzendorf for the Democratic nomination. The seat is rated Lean Republican.
• AZ-02: Rep. Tom O’Halleran (D) will face the winner of a crowded Republican field of seven, led by State Rep. Walter Blackman, the first African American Republican elected to the Arizona house. He is running against Navy veteran Eli Crane, architect Mark DeLuzio, small business owners Steven Krystofiak and Andy Yates, Williams Mayor John Moore, and Qanon influencer Ron Watkins. The seat is rated Likely Republican.
• AZ-04: Tanya Wheeless is the GOP establishment candidate running against Jerone Davison, Dave Giles, and Rene Lopez for the right to challenge Rep. Greg Stanton (D) in November. Stanton, the former Phoenix mayor, is now facing a map that shifted away from the city and toward conservative voters to the east. The seat is rated Lean Democratic.
• AZ-06: Republicans are betting on Juan Ciscomani, a senior adviser to Gov. Doug Ducey, to flip this open seat to replace retiring Rep. Ann Kirkpatrick (D). Avery Anderson, Kirsten Engel, and Daniel Hernandez, Jr. are vying for the Democratic nomination on August 2. The seat is rated Lean Republican.
• CA-40: After easily defeating a Republican primary challenger boosted by Democrats, Rep. Young Kim (R) is in a stronger position against Democrat Asif Mahmood. The seat shifted from Lean Republican to Likely Republican.
• CA-45: Rep. Michelle Steel (R) and her Republican challengers combined for 57 percent of the vote in the June all-party primary. This strong showing against Democrat Jay Chen, who took 43 percent of the vote, suggests Steel is in a strong position heading into the general election. The race shifted from a toss-up to Lean Republican.
• FL-07: The August 2 primary will reveal potential successors to Democratic Rep. Stephanie Murphy, who is not seeking reelection. Redistricting shifted Florida’s seventh district from blue to red. Rusty Roberts and Brady Duke remain prominent frontrunners for the Republican nomination among a crowded field of 12 Republican candidates. The winner will be up against one of four candidates hoping to keep the district blue, including prominent Democratic campaign official Karen Green. The seat is rated Likely Republican.
• FL-13: With Democratic Rep. Charlie Crist running for Governor, Florida’s 13th district is an open seat. Eric Lynn, an Obama alum and former Department of Defense official, is the only Democratic candidate in the race and has Crist’s endorsement. Trump-endorsed candidate Anna Paulina Luna is the frontrunner of five Republican candidates in this newly red district. The seat is rated Likely Republican.
• FL-15: The Republican primary field shrunk once again, with Jay Collins leaving the race to run for state senate. Six Republicans now remain, including former Florida Secretary of State Laurel Lee, State Sen. Kelli Stargel, and State Rep. Jackie Toledo, who is currently leading the field in fundraising. Among the Democrats are political consultant Gavin Brown and Navy veteran Bill VanHorn. The seat is rated Likely Republican.
• FL-27: State Sen. Annette Taddeo (D) joined the race last month after ending her gubernatorial candidacy. She will face Democratic Miami Commissioner Ken Russell in the primary for the right to challenge Rep. Maria Elvira Salazar (R). Taddeo entering the race puts pressure on Salazar with polls showing her trailing Salazar by just two points. The seat shifted from Solid Republican to Likely Republican.
• HI-02: Former State Sen. Jill Tokuda (D) is competing against State Rep. Pat Branco and four other Democrats for their party’s nomination on August 13 to replace Rep. Kai Kahele (D), who is running for governor. The winner will take on either former military intelligence officer Joe Akana or small business owner Joe Webster in the general election. This race is rated Solid Democrat.
• MD-06: Rep. David Trone (D) faces two primary challengers on July 19, non-profit founder and executive director Ben Smilowitz and political newcomer Heba Machado Zayas. However, after redistricting made his district more competitive, Trone’s true challenge could come in November when he faces off against one of six Republicans running. Among the Republican candidates is Washington County Delegate Neil Parrott, who lost to Trone in 2020. This race is rated Lean Democratic.
• MI-03: Rep. Peter Meijer (R) has no regrets voting to impeach former President Donald Trump, and criticized Trump and right-wing allies for refusing to acknowledge the attack on the U.S. Capitol. Meijer is facing Trump-backed John Gibbs in the primary, which may prove to be an uphill battle for the GOP freshman. Meijer or Gibbs will face off against Democrat Hillary Scholten, a former Department of Justice lawyer, in November. The seat is rated a toss-up.
• MI-07: Endangered Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D-MI) posted a fundraising haul of just over $1.5 million in the second quarter. She will need to continue strong fundraising to counteract the $7.3 million in ad buys from the National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC) across the district to benefit GOP challenger Tom Barrett. The seat is rated a toss-up.
• MI-10: John James, a GOP-backed business owner and perennial candidate, and Democrat marketing executive Angela Rogensues received endorsements in their crowded primary fields from the Detroit News for this open seat. The seat is rated Lean Republican.
• MN-02: Democrat Rep. Angie Craig faces Republican Tyler Kistner in a rematch. Democrats are worried the presence of the third-party Legal Marijuana Now candidate Paula Overby may siphon votes from Craig in the tight race rated a toss-up.
• MO-04: GOP candidate and fundraising leader Taylor Burks received the endorsement of Reps. August Pfluger (R-TX) and Mike Waltz (R-FL) and Sen. Tom Cotton (R-AR). Democrat Jack Truman faces slim chances for a seat rated Solid Republican.
• MO-07: The Republican field hoping to replace Republican Rep. Billy Long is crowded, including physician Dr. Sam Alexander; pastor Alex Bryant; State Sens. Eric Burlison, Mike Moon, and Jay Wasson; and U.S. Treasury Department alum Audrey Richards. The seat is rated Solid Republican.
• NY-10: Sen. Cory Booker (D-NJ) endorsed Rep. Mondaire Jones for this open seat, citing his “passion for serving his constituents and making real change.” More than a dozen Democrats are running, including former Mayor Bill de Blasio. This seat is rated likely Democratic.
• PA-12: After a primary win by a progressive State Rep. Summer Lee, this Pittsburgh-area seat, which became less Democratic during redistricting, may be in play. Lee will face Republican Michael Doyle in the general election. Confusion among voters between retiring Rep. Michael Doyle and candidate Michael Doyle is an added dynamic in this race. This seat shifted from Solid Democratic to Likely Democratic.
• RI-02: Left open by the retirement of Rep. James Langevin, Democrats are concerned about holding this seat after a new Boston Globe poll shows Republican Cranston Mayor Allen Fung leading each of his six potential Democratic opponents, including State Treasurer Seth Magaziner. Langevin announced his endorsement of Magaziner, urging Democrats to unite behind “the strongest candidate in the race.” The race shifted from Lean Democratic to toss-up.
• TN-05: A Nashville judge ordered the Tennessee Republican party to reinstate Robby Starbuck to the primary, finding the executive committee violated the state’s Open Meetings Act when it removed Starbuck. In April, Starbuck, Morgan Ortagus, and Baxter Lee were booted from the ballot for not meeting requirements. The seat is rated Solid Republican.
• VT-AL: Seven candidates running for Vermont’s open at-large seat debated last week in advance of the state’s August 9 primary. Split into two debates by party, Democratic candidates were asked how they would codify abortion rights into law following the Supreme Court overturning Roe v. Wade, while Republicans were asked if they support the ruling. Democratic candidates include Lt. Gov. Molly Gray and State Senate President Pro Tempore Becca Balint, who garnered the endorsement of Senator Bernie Sanders. Republican candidates include former Marine Corps Sgt. Liam Madden and State Republican Party Secretary and Treasurer Anya Tynio. This seat is rated Solid Democratic.
• WY-AL: Republican Rep. Liz Cheney continues to face slim odds for re-election with an August 16 primary challenge from Harriet Hagerman. Cheney is encouraging Democrats to switch parties and vote for her, though Sen. John Barrasso (R-Y) recently cast doubt those efforts could prevail because “there are not enough Democrats.” The seat is rated Solid Republican.

Ratings

The Cook Political Report lists 42 Democratic-held and 12 Republican-held seats as Lean or Toss-Up and rates five Democratic-held seats as Likely or Solid Republican and zero Republican seat as Likely or Solid Democratic. Inside Elections considers 31 Democratic-held and 13 Republican-held seats as Tilt/Lean or Toss-Up, with five Democratic seats as Likely Republican and one Republican district as Likely Democratic. Click to enlarge each chart.

SENATE

With candidates now confirmed in most competitive Senate races, recent polling suggests Republicans flipping the Senate may not be as easy as the House, with toss-up races in Georgia, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin potentially out of reach because of candidates who might underperform a generic Republican candidate despite an advantageous political environment. Some Republicans are comparing the situation to 2010 and 2012, when the party fell short of winning the Senate majority because of undisciplined and polarizing candidates such as Sharron Angle in Nevada, Todd Akin in Missouri, Christine O’Donnell in Delaware, and Richard Mourdock in Indiana.

Primary Results

• Alabama: Katie Britt won the GOP nomination to replace retiring Sen. Richard Shelby, defeating Rep. Mo Brooks in a June 21 runoff election 44.8 to 29.1 percent. Trump endorsed Britt in the runoff after rescinding his endorsement of Brooks in March. Britt, who is the former head of the Business Council of Alabama and Shelby’s chief of staff, will face Democrat Will Boyd in November. This race is rated Solid Republican.
• Colorado: Sen. Michael Bennet (D) will face businessman and first-time Republican candidate Joe O’Dea in November, after O’Dea defeated State Rep. Ron Hanks 55 to 46 percent. O’Dea self-funded $1.6 million and benefitted from more than $1 million spent by Republican Super PAC American Policy Fund. In the 10-week reporting period before the June 28 primary, Bennet reported raising just over $2 million, bringing his total to $13.2 million this cycle. This race is rated Likely Democratic.
• Illinois: Attorney Kathy Salvi won the Illinois Republican nomination to take on first-term Sen. Tammy Duckworth. Salvi took a strong and early lead in the crowded seven-candidate race, receiving 30.5 percent of the vote. Duckworth advanced from the uncontested Democratic primary and heads into the general election with over $7 million cash on hand. This race is rated Solid Democrat.
• New York: Both parties ran uncontested primary candidates on June 28. Senate Democratic Leader Chuck Schumer will face Republican nominee and Newsmax host Joe Pinion in the general election. This race is rated Solid Democrat.
• Oklahoma — Lankford: On June 28, Sen. James Lankford turned back his primary challengers. Madison Horn, a cybersecurity executive, and Jason Bollinger, an attorney and former State Department official, advanced to an August 23 Democratic runoff to determine who will face Lankford in November. This race is rated Solid Republican.
• Oklahoma — Open: The Republican race to serve the four years remaining of retiring Sen. James Inhofe’s (R) term is heading to an August 23 runoff between Rep. Markwayne Mullin and former Speaker of the Oklahoma House T.W. Shannon out of a crowded primary field. Scott Pruitt, Trump’s former Environmental Protection Agency administrator who resigned amid ethics scandals in 2018, finished last. The race is rated Solid Republican.
• South Carolina: Republican Sen. Tim Scott will face State Rep. Krystle Matthews in November, after Matthews defeated Catherine Fleming Bruce in the June 28 primary runoff. Scott has raised over $44 million, with $24 million cash on hand. This race is rated Solid Republican.

From the Frontlines

• Alaska: As the August 16 primary approaches where the top four candidates will advance to a ranked choice election in November, Sen. Lisa Murkowski is turning up the attacks on her Trump-endorsed challenger Kelly Tshibaka. In her latest ad spot, Murkowski calls Tshibaka out on health care issues, painting her views on contraception as extreme. Trump was in Anchorage for a rally on Saturday to stump for Tshibaka and House candidate Sarah Palin. Murkowski has raised close to $7.5 million compared to Tshibaka’s $2.5 million. The race is rated Solid Republican.
• Arizona: With the August 2 primary less than a month away, the gloves are off in the GOP primary to face Democratic Sen. Mark Kelly in November. Businessman Jim Lamon is spending millions accusing venture capitalist Blake Masters of siding with Big Tech. Outside groups supporting Masters responded with commercials of their own, labeling Lamon a “liberal” who supports communist China. State Attorney General Mark Brnovich is also in the race but falling behind in the ad wars. Kelly launched two new TV ads, including the first Spanish language ad of his reelection campaign highlighting Kelly’s work to support Latino Arizonans and lower costs and support small businesses as they recover from the pandemic. The second ad features his efforts to ban Members of Congress from stock trading. This race is rated a toss-up.
• Florida: Neither the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee nor Senate Majority PAC are reserving any ad time to support Rep. Val Demings’ challenge to Sen. Marco Rubio, who is linking Demings to Biden and other establishment Democrats. This race is rated Lean Republican.
• Georgia: A Quinnipiac University poll finds Democratic Sen. Raphael Warnock leading Republican challenger Herschel Walker 54 to 44 percent. Warnock reported raising $17.2 million in the second quarter, with $22.2 million cash on hand, compared to Walker’s $6.2 million in Q2 and $7 million cash on hand. While Warnock is focusing his campaign on improving Georgia’s infrastructure and other hot button issues, Walker’s campaign is engulfed by controversies and gaffes. After securing the GOP nomination in May, reports started circulating that Walker lied to his campaign staff about the number of children he fathered, undercutting past sentiments on absentee fathers in the Black community. Walker also gave a bungled explanation of his views on air pollution solutions. In response, veteran Washington operatives are being deployed to reset his campaign. The race is rated a toss-up.
• Missouri: The ad campaigns are fiery in the Republican primary to replace retiring Republican Sen. Roy Blunt, with Missouri Attorney General Eric Schmitt wielding a blowtorch in his latest ad while calling Biden’s legislative agenda a “total disaster.” The ad followed a controversial spot from former Gov. Eric Greitens, who breached a house with a full SWAT team and machine guns hunting “Republicans in Name Only.” Greitens, who was recently the target of $1 million worth of attack ads from Republican Super PAC Show Me Values, leads Schmitt and Rep. Vicky Hartzler in most polls. Trump recently declined to endorse Hartzler despite her endorsement from Sen. Josh Hawley (R-MO). John Wood, former U.S. Attorney in Kansas City and former senior investigator for the January 6 committee, is running in November as an Independent and said he would caucus with Republicans if elected. The race is rated Solid Republican.
• Nevada: Following the Supreme Court’s decision overturning Roe v. Wade, Republican Adam Laxalt called Roe “a joke” and said it was “sad Nevada is not anti-abortion.” Laxalt acknowledged he is out of step with voters, citing polling showing a majority of the state’s Republican and Independent voters are pro-choice. Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto is hoping for a repeat of her first election in 2016, a tough cycle for Democrats. Both candidates are courting Latino voters, who make up nearly 30 percent of the state’s population. This race is rated a toss-up.
• New Hampshire: Democratic Sen. Maggie Hassan launched her first ad addressing the overturning of Roe v. Wade. Hassan, who raised more than $5 million in the second quarter and has $7 million cash on hand, will face one of the top three Republican hopefuls: Retired Army Brig. Gen. Don Bolduc, State Senate President Chuck Morse, or Londonderry Town Manager Kevin Smith. The race is rated Lean Democratic.
• North Carolina: Democrat Cheri Beasley launched a new ad calling out both Democrats and Republicans in her race for this open seat against Republican Rep. Ted Budd in November to replace retiring Republican Sen. Richard Burr. Beasley has sought to distance herself from Biden and Democrats by casting herself as an outsider. Polling is within the margin of error, with two recent polls drawing competing conclusions. This race is rated Lean Republican.
• Ohio: Democrat Rep. Tim Ryan is distancing himself from Biden and appealing to Trump supporters, launching ads citing his agreement with Trump on blue collar issues such as trade and China and slamming his opponent J.D. Vance for proposing to defund the FBI and Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms, and Explosives. Meanwhile, Trump-endorsed Vance is avoiding the spotlight while defending against accusations a pro-Vance Super PAC illegally provided information to his campaign. The race is rated Lean Republican.
• Pennsylvania: Democratic Lt. Gov. John Fetterman returned to the campaign trail last week, appearing at a volunteer training in Pittsburgh. A recent AARP poll found Fetterman leading celebrity Republican Dr. Mehmet Oz 50 to 44 percent, with a 4.4 percent margin of error, and a USA TODAY/Suffolk University poll found Fetterman holding a nine-point lead with the same margin of error and five percent undecided. Fetterman continues to hit Oz on his wealth and residency, recently taking credit for trying to “shitpost” his way to the Senate. The race is rated a toss-up.
• Wisconsin: Lt. Gov. Mandela Barnes and Milwaukee Bucks executive Alex Lasry are both picking up support in the Democratic primary, according to a recent Marquette Law School poll, with 36 percent of voters still undecided. Republican Sen. Ron Johnson is under fire for his alleged role in the effort to undermine certification of the 2020 election on behalf of Trump. This race is rated as a toss-up.

Ratings

The Cook Political Report lists five Democratic-held and five Republican-held seats as Likely, Lead, or Toss-Up. Inside Elections lists six Democratic-held and four Republican-held seats as Likely, Tilt/Lean, or Toss-Up. Inside Elections shifted Sen. Patty Murray from Solid Democratic to Likely Democratic. Click to enlarge each chart.

GOVERNORS

Four of the 36 gubernatorial primaries returned results in the past month, and crowded primaries to fill vacant seats and challenge vulnerable incumbents are coming up in late July and August.

Primary Results

• Illinois: Republican State Sen. Darren Bailey won the party’s nomination to face Democratic Gov. J.B. Pritzker in November. Bailey defeated five other GOP candidates, securing 58 percent of the vote after receiving Trump’s endorsement just before the primary. Pritzker and the Democratic Governors Association also supported Bailey, believing the more conservative opponent would make for an easier general election. This primary race was the most expensive in Illinois history and could be the most expensive non-presidential race by the general election. This race is rated Solid Democratic.
• Oklahoma: Republican Gov. Kevin Stitt defeated three other GOP candidates for the nomination by a landslide, receiving 69.1 percent of the vote. Stitt is endorsed by Trump. Superintendent of Public Instruction Joy Hofmeister secured the Democratic nomination. Hofmeister, who was once a Republican, rebranded as a Democrat in fall 2021 claiming Stitt hijacked the GOP. This race is rated Solid Republican.
• New York: Democratic Gov. Kathy Hochul, easily defeating two Democratic opponents, will face Rep. Lee Zeldin in the general election. Zeldin beat Andrew Giuliani with 43.9 percent of the GOP primary vote. This race is rated Solid Democratic.

From the Frontlines

• Arizona: Republican candidates recently participated in a debate where they all claimed the 2020 presidential election was stolen. Trump-endorsed GOP frontrunner Kari Lake compared the debate to a Saturday Night Live skit. Republican Matt Salmon recently suspended his election campaign and urged his supporters to vote for Karrin Taylor Robson rather than Lake. Marco Lopez is hoping to overtake frontrunner Katie Hobbs in the Democratic primary on August 2, touting his experience in government. Lopez accepted an invitation to appear for a televised debate while Hobbs decided to sit it out. This race is considered a toss-up.
• Georgia: Democrat Stacey Abrams is significantly outraising Republican Gov. Brian Kemp, collecting more than $22 million over the past two months compared to Kemp’s $6.8 million raise. New Quinnipiac polling shows the two candidates tied at 48 percent. Abrams is currently winning the support of women, Black voters, and younger voters (18 to 49 years old). Kemp is leading with voters aged 50 and older, white voters, and men. This race is rated a toss-up.
• Kansas: Republican Attorney General Derek Schmidt picked up support from the Kansas Farm Bureau and Kansas Fraternal Order of Police in his challenge to Democratic Gov. Laura Kelly, despite the latter endorsing Kelly in 2018. This race is rated a toss-up.
• Maryland: Nine candidates are in the Democratic race to secure the nomination on July 19. Recent polling shows Maryland Comptroller Peter Franchot; former U.S. Labor Secretary Tom Perez; and military veteran, author, and television producer Wes Moore as top-tier candidates. Most notable in the Republican primary are Trump-endorsed State Del. Dan Cox and Gov. Larry Hogan-endorsed Kelly Schulz. This race is rated Lean Democratic.
• Michigan: Five Republican candidates running to challenge Democratic Gov. Gretchen Whitmer participated in a debate, with businessman Kevin Rinke the only candidate who did not claim the 2020 election was stolen. Candidate Ryan Kelley was arrested for his involvement in the January 6 insurrection and may now be the frontrunner, leading in three recent polls. Whitmer released her first ad, taking credit for “getting things done.” She also participated in a Washington Post profile on her efforts to secure abortion rights in the state. A Glengariff Group poll found Whitmer safely leading all of her potential GOP challengers in hypothetical head-to-head matchups, with a 55 percent approval rating. This race is rated a toss-up.
• Pennsylvania: According to a recent FiveThirtyEight forecast, Democratic Attorney General Josh Shapiro is favored to win the Pennsylvania’s governor’s race with their model showing Shapiro defeating Republican State Senator Doug Mastriano 51.1 to 46.7 percent. Additionally, nine GOP leaders from across Pennsylvania endorsed Shapiro over their party’s candidate, saying Mastriano is an extreme candidate who would undermine democracy. This race is rated Lean Democratic.
• Texas: According to a University of Texas poll, Republican Gov. Greg Abbott and Democratic candidate Beto O’Rourke are statistically tied, with 10 percent undecided. Abbott’s approval rating is dropping among Texans following the governor’s response to the Uvalde school shooting. This race is rated Likely Republican.
• Wisconsin: Business consultant Kevin Nicholson suspended his campaign for the Republican nomination leaving executive Tim Michels and former Lt. Gov. Rebecca Kleefisch to face Democratic Gov. Tony Evers in November. This race is considered a toss-up.

Ratings

The gubernatorial ratings have not changed since our last issue. Cook Political Report lists five Democratic-held and five Republican-held seats as Likely, Lean, or Toss-Up. Inside Elections lists four Democratic-held and four Republican seats as Likely, Tilt/Lean, or Toss-Up. Click to enlarge each chart.