Election Update — Issue 4

173 days until Election Day

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The single most important issue for voters going into this fall’s election is the economy. Voters are experiencing soaring inflation, costing them significantly more at the gas pump, in the grocery store, and in housing costs. But other hot-button political and cultural issues are making waves too.

Campaigns around the country are reacting to the first-ever leak of a Supreme Court draft opinion. If issued by the Court, Justice Samuel Alito’s draft opinion would overturn Roe v. Wade and end federal abortion protections. Democrats responded by giving a financial boost to groups like NARAL Pro-Choice America, but the net impact on the election is hard to judge at this point. Republicans — including Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) — expect the revelation to be “a wash,” with voters energized on both sides.

Immigration also remains top of voters’ minds, with 41 percent of Americans reporting illegal immigration as a “top worry.” The Biden-Harris Administration is calling for an end to Title 42, which allows immigration authorities to bar entry to people seeking asylum at the border for health and safety reasons during the pandemic. Republicans are increasing calls for Congress to act on the border as the party focuses on the issue for midterms. Democrats in competitive races are responding by cosponsoring legislation to delay the end of the restrictions. Last month, Senator Maggie Hassan (D-NH) visited the U.S.-Mexico border to advocate for border security.

The debate around education policy, driven largely by discussions around critical race theory, sex and gender identity, and COVID-19 safety measures, will also play an important role in congressional and gubernatorial contests. Polling shows nearly half of parents with children under the age of 18 list education as “extremely important” in determining their vote. Republicans are making education policy and critical race theory a central part of their campaigns — as seen last year in Gov. Glenn Youngkin’s (R-VA) successful run. As Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-FL) campaigns for a second term, he signed a law to bar conversations about sex and gender identity in lower elementary grades, prompting a backlash from corporations, including Disney. This resulted in a return volley from state Republicans ending Florida’s largest private employer’s special tax status and Sen. Marco Rubio (R-FL) introducing legislation to end tax deductions for “woke corporations” including gender-affirming care and abortion travel payments in employee benefit packages.

Republicans hold an advantage over the perceived handling of the economy, controlling inflation, immigration, and crime — though Democrats have the edge on women’s health and education issues.

With 173 days to go until Election Day, here is Invariant’s latest outlook on the state of play in the House, Senate, and gubernatorial races to watch in 2022.

KEY DATES

HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES

The number of House Democrats leaving Congress continues to grow, as Rep. Kaialiʻi Kahele (D-HI) announced he will leave Congress to run for governor of Hawaii and Rep. Antonio Delgado is departing Congress early to become Lieutenant Governor of New York. With these announcements, there are 32 House Democrats retiring or running for another office.

Earlier this week, a court-appointed special master released draft congressional maps for New York state after the state’s highest court struck down Democratic maps. The New York ruling erased expected gains in Democratic-leaning districts and improves chances for Republicans to take control of the House. The boundaries released by the special master on Monday include 15 Democratic-leaning seats, five Republican-leaning seats, and six highly competitive seats. The congressional primaries were also moved from June 28 to August 23 to accommodate the rewrite of the maps. Invariant will have a special New York election report early next week after the map is finalized.

Also in New York, Republican Rep. Tom Reed abruptly resigned on May 10. Reed, facing allegations of sexual misconduct, had already decided not to run for reelection, but it is not clear why he decided to resign this month. Party leaders in the state were frustrated by the lack of warning and the burden of a special election. Gov. Kathy Hochul has until May 20 to set a date for the race to fill the remainder of Reed’s term.

As House races heat up through primary season, Republicans are investing heavily in television ads. The Congressional Leadership Fund, a House leadership-aligned GOP Super PAC, purchased $125 million worth of television advertisement reservations in 50 media markets nationally. The fund has already sunk more money into House races this cycle than the entirety of the 2020 election. Of their total spend, $111 million is designated to districts that President Biden carried by six to nine points.

Democrats are working to keep pace with their advertising efforts. House Majority PAC committed $102 million to advertising last month in support of candidates in competitive races, including Reps. Elissa Slotkin (D-MI), Elaine Luria (D-VA), and Jared Golden (D-CO). Democratic-aligned Super PAC American Bridge 21st Century added a $3.5 million ad buy in battleground states including Arizona, Georgia, Pennsylvania, and Nevada.

REDISTRICTING

Two states still have not approved new congressional maps — New Hampshire and New York. Forty-two out of 44 states with more than one congressional district have finalized their map-drawing process. As the maps stand, Democrats secured an additional eight seats that lean their way, Republicans neither gained nor lost any seats, and seven fewer seats are considered highly competitive. Of the approved maps, 16 states are engaged in active litigation challenges. Of note:

• In Florida, Gov. DeSantis’ map — approved by the Florida legislature in late April — was partially struck down on May 11 after the judge found the map unconstitutional because it eliminated Rep. Al Lawson’s majority-minority fifth congressional district. DeSantis appealed the ruling, which automatically stayed the court’s decision. On May 17, a circuit court judge lifted the stay, ordering election officials to begin using a map preserving Lawson’s district.
• In Kansas, the state supreme court upheld the Republican legislature’s approved map, reversing last week’s lower court decision which held the map unconstitutional. The new map splits Wyandotte County between two districts, likely endangering Rep. Sharice Davids, Kansas’s only Democratic Member of Congress. The state’s primaries are scheduled for August 2.
• In Missouri, after a long intraparty stalemate between the Republican-controlled legislative chambers, the state passed a new map on May 13 preserving the current partisan breakdown of six Republican-leaning seats and two Democratic-leaning seats. Conservative state senators were pushing a map favoring Republicans seven-to-one. Gov. Mike Parson signed the new map into law on May 18.
• In New Hampshire, a conference committee on May 18 approved the recently released congressional map after the state supreme court ruled the May 5 House-passed map could not stand. The new map heads to the full legislature for a vote. The proposed changes place Democratic Reps. Annie Kuster and Chris Pappas in the same district and headed to a match-up. The court will intervene if Gov. Chris Sununu and the state legislature cannot come to an agreement on a map before the end of the month.
• In New York, the state’s highest court ruled the congressional map enacted in February is unconstitutional due to the extreme partisan advantage it gave Democrats. On May 16, the court-appointed special master released a new proposal due to be final on May 20. Under the plan, Democrats have 14 safe seats and a slim advantage in seven competitive seats, while Republicans would be heavily favored in five districts. The plan also draws together several Democratic incumbents including Reps. Mondaire Jones, Jamaal Bowman, and Sean Patrick Maloney; Reps. Hakeem Jeffries and Yvette Clarke; and Reps. Carolyn Maloney and Jerry Nadler. Republican Reps. Chris Jacobs and Elise Stefanik will face Democratic Reps. Brian Higgins and Paul Tonko, respectively. It is likely some of these incumbents will run in new districts to avoid challenging a colleague, upending those August 23 primaries. The court did not decide whether candidates must file new petitions for candidacy, an arduous process the campaigns thought was behind them.

Primary Results

• ID-02: Rep. Michael Simpson triumphed over four Republican challengers to seek a 13th term. Simpson again defeated his closest rival, Bryan Smith, who previously challenged him in 2014. Simpson’s victory is a sign of strength among the party’s establishment wing, though both candidates sought to establish strong support for former President Donald Trump during the campaign. Simpson will now face Democrat Wendy Norman, who ran unopposed. The seat is rated Solid Republican.
• IN-01: Air Force Veteran Jennifer-Ruth Green won the Republican nomination to face off against Democratic Rep. Frank Mrvan in the general. Green defeated Blair Milo, the former Mayor of LaPorte, receiving 47.1 percent of the vote share. Green marketed herself as the conservative choice and called Milo a “never Trump liberal.” Mrvan ran away with the Democratic nomination with 91 percent of the vote. The race is rated Lean Democratic.
• IN-09: Former state senator Erin Houchin won the crowded Republican primary to replace Rep. Trey Hollingsworth, who decided not to seek reelection after he voted to establish an independent commission to investigate the January 6 attacks on the U.S. Capitol. Houchin overcame personal investments from her challengers by raising $440,000 from outside sources and racking up endorsements from current and former Republican elected officials. On the Democratic side, Matthew Fyfe won the primary with 56.5 percent of the vote. The seat is rated Solid Republican.
• KY-03: Progressive state legislators Morgan McGarvey and Attica Scott faced off to replace retiring Rep. John Yarmuth. McGarvey won, receiving 63.3 percent of the vote. On the Republican side, the race is still too close to call as of May 19, with Stuart Ray (29.5 percent) and Rhonda Palazzo (29.4 percent) still battling for the nomination with upwards of 95 percent of the vote reported. The district was little changed after the 2020 census and includes a diverse area around Louisville. The seat is rated Solid Democratic.
• NE-01: State Senator Mike Flood won the Nebraska Republican primary following Rep. Jeff Fortenberry’s resignation after he was convicted of lying to federal authorities about an illegal campaign contribution. Flood will face off against fellow State Senator Patty Pansing Brooks, who won the Democratic nomination. The race is considered Solid Republican.
• NE-02: Rep. Don Bacon won the Republican nomination, defeating Republican challenger Steve Kuehl. He will face Tony Vargas, who advanced by a wide margin over Alisha Shelton for the Democratic nod. While the district voted for Biden, the race is rated Likely Republican.
• NC-01: State Senator Don Davis won the Democratic primary, vying to replace retiring Rep. G.K. Butterfield. Davis defeated State Senator Erica Smith who received strong support from pro-choice advocates and sought to make reproductive rights a central issue in the closing days of her campaign. Davis will be up against Republican nominee Sandy Smith, the winner of a crowded Republican primary race. The race is rated Lean Democratic.
• NC-04: State Senator Valerie Foushee dominated the Democratic primary, receiving more than 46 percent of the vote in a crowded race. She defeated progressive candidate Nina Allam who was endorsed by Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) and Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY). Foushee is running to replace Rep. David Price who retired this year after representing the fourth district since 1986. She is up against Republican nominee Courtney Geels. The race is rated Solid Democratic.
• NC-06: Democratic Rep. Kathy Manning was unopposed in her bid for a second term. She will face Christian Castelli who emerged from a crowded Republican field, beating out frontrunner Lee Haywood and securing the nomination by just over 1,000 votes. Castelli is an Army veteran and business owner in his first political campaign. The race is rated Likely Democratic.
• NC-11: Trump-backed freshman Rep. Madison Cawthorn conceded his race to opponent Chuck Edwards. Cawthorn made enemies after making unsubstantiated allegations of drug-fueled sex parties in Washington. Edwards will face Democratic nominee and Christian minister Jasmine Beach-Ferrara in November. The race is rated Solid Republican.
• NC-13: Without an incumbent in the re-drawn 13th district, the primaries were crowded on both sides. Political newcomer Bo Hines clinched the Republican nomination after receiving an endorsement from Trump. He will face State Senator and former defense attorney Wiley Nickels in a contentious race for the North Carolina triangle area. The race is rated a toss-up.
• NC-14: North Carolina gained one seat following the 2020 census. Democrat Jeff Jackson will face Republican Pat Harrigan to be the first to represent the new district. Jackson is a state senator, attorney, and former Army National Guard officer; Harrigan is an Army veteran and business owner. The race is rated Solid Democratic.
• OH-07: Former Trump White House Aide Max Miller won the district’s Republican primary to replace retiring Rep. Bob Gibbs. Prior to redistricting, Miller initially announced a challenge to Rep. Anthony Gonzalez in response to Gonzalez’s vote to impeach Trump. Gonzalez also decided to retire from Congress. Miller will face Democrat Matthew Diemer. The race is rated Solid Republican.
• OH-09: J.R. Majewski, who was publicly praised by Trump for painting murals of the former president on his lawn, won the Republican primary. Majewski beat out multiple state representatives to secure the nomination. He will face Democratic Rep. Marcy Kaptur, the longest-serving woman in the House. Under the new map, the district voted for Trump by three points in 2020. The race is rated a toss-up.
• OH-11: Rep. Shontel Brown secured the Democratic nomination by defeating Nina Turner, an activist and former state senator who works closely with Sen. Bernie Sanders (D-VT) and other prominent progressives. This is the second time the two faced off in a Democratic primary and the second time Brown prevailed. Brown will be up against Republican Eric Brewer, a journalist and the former mayor of Eastern Cleveland. The race is rated Solid Democratic.
• OH-13: Following redistricting and two retirements, Ohio 13 is open for two new candidates. Democratic primary winner Emilia Sykes comes from a long line of Akron politicians and has represented the city in the statehouse since 2015, with parents who represented the area on and off since 1982. She will face Madison Gesiotto Gilbert, a Trump-endorsed conservative political columnist from Canton. The race is rated a toss-up.
• PA-01: Centrist Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick defeated challenger and Trump supporter Alex Entin to win his party’s nomination. He will face Democrat Ashley Ehasz, who ran unopposed. The seat is rated Likely Republican.
• PA-03: Rep. Dwight Evans easily beat back a challenge from progressive candidate Alexandra Hunt, who gained notoriety among Democratic activists on TikTok. Evans is running unopposed in the general election.
• PA-07: Rep. Susan Wild ran unopposed in the Democratic primary for this closely watched seat. She will now proceed to a rematch with her 2020 challenger, Republican Lisa Scheller — a business owner and former county commissioner — who defeated Kevin Dellicker — a business owner, former government advisor, and veteran — in the Republican primary. The seat is rated a toss-up.
• PA-08: Rep. Matt Cartwright ran unopposed in the Democratic primary for this competitive seat. He will face Republican challenger Jim Bognet, who received Trump’s endorsement and defeated Mike Marsicano in the primary. The seat is rated a toss-up.
• PA-09: Rep. Dan Meuser secured his party’s nomination unopposed in the Republican primary. Meuser was set to face Rep. Fred Keller in a Member-on-Member primary, but Keller ultimately declined to contest the seat. Meuser will now face Democrat Amanda Waldman, who ran unopposed. The seat is rated Solid Republican.
• PA-10: Running unopposed in his primary, Republican Rep. Scott Perry will face Democrat Shamaine Daniels, who defeated Rick Coplen in a close race. The seat is rated Likely Republican.
• PA-12: Progressive State Rep. Summer Lee and Steve Irwin are awaiting results in a crowded Democratic primary too close to call as of May 19. The winner will face the Republican nominee who coincidentally shares the name of the representative retiring after serving the district since 2009, Mike Doyle. The seat is rated Solid Democratic.
• PA-17: Democrat Chris Deluzio defeated Sean Meloy to win the party’s nomination to run to replace Rep. Conor Lamb, who lost his primary bid for the Senate. Deluzio will face Republican Jeremy Shaffer, who defeated Jason Killmeyer and Kathy Coder with nearly 60 percent of the vote. The seat is rated toss-up.
• OR-04: Val Hoyle beat out a crowded field to secure the Democratic nomination in the race to replace Rep. Peter DeFazio. Hoyle will face Republican Alek Skarlatos, who ran unopposed. The seat is rated Likely Democratic.
• OR-05: Rep. Kurt Schrader, one of the most conservative House Democrats, is awaiting the result of his primary challenge from Jamie McLeod-Skinner in a race too close to call as of May 19 with 54 percent of the ballots in. McLeod-Skinner challenged Schrader from the left, emphasizing environmental protection, reproductive rights, and racial justice as priority issues in her campaign. The winner will face Lori Chavez-DeRemer, who bested a field of five candidates in the Republican primary. The seat is rated Lean Democratic.
• OR-06: While neither primary race is called yet, Andrea Salinas likely beat eight other Democrats to receive the party’s nomination for this newly created open seat. Odds are that she will face off against Republican Mike Erickson, who beat six other contenders. The seat is rated Likely Democratic.
• WV-02: Seen as a bellwether for Trump’s influence, Republican Rep. Alexander Mooney defeated his colleague Rep. David McKinley in the first Member versus Member primary of the cycle. Trump endorsed Mooney over McKinley, who voted with Democrats to pass the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act and in favor of establishing a commission to investigate the January 6 attacks. Mooney will now face Democrat Barry Wendell. This seat is rated Solid Republican.

From the Frontlines

• AZ-01: The state’s bipartisan redistricting commission’s new map improved the outlook for Republicans across the state, but Rep. David Schweikert’s district is getting more competitive. He will face off against Josh Barnett and Elijah Norton for the Republican nomination. Jevin Hodge, Adam Metzendorf, and Ginger Sykes Torres are running for the Democratic nomination. The seat is rated Likely Republican.
• AZ-02: Rep. Tom O’Halleran is running unopposed for the Democratic nomination but is considered one of the most at-risk incumbents. In 2020, the new district would have favored Trump over Biden by eight points. The Republican field is yet to take shape, with several candidates vying for the nomination, including Army veteran Walter Blackman and Navy veteran Eli Crane. The race is rated Likely Republican.
• CA-13: The open-party primary means the top two vote-getters among the three Republicans and two Democrats will advance. On the Republican side, John Duarte and David Giglio have $449,000 and $380,000 on hand, respectively. Democratic candidates include Blue-Dog endorsed Assemblyman Adam Gray and progressive-backed Phil Arballo. The seat is rated Lean Democratic.
• CA-22: Republican Rep. David Valadao will benefit from a $3 million Congressional Leadership Fund ad buy as he attempts to protect his seat, which has grown increasingly Democratic. Valadao is being challenged by three other candidates in the open-party primary, including Democratic State Assemblyman Rudy Salas. After a decade of recruitment from House Democrats, Salas finally decided to run for Congress and has the endorsement of the centrist New Democrat Coalition Action Fund. The seat is rated a toss-up.
• CA-27: Republican Rep. Mike Garcia is facing two other Republicans and three Democrats in the open-party primary. Two of his challengers, Democrats Christy Smith and John Quaye Quartey, have over $400,000 on hand each. Smith has endorsements from Planned Parenthood, Sierra Club California, and the California Federation of Teachers. Quartey is endorsed by the New Democrat Coalition Action Fund. The seat is rated a toss-up.
• CA-40: Republican Rep. Young Kim raised $948,000 in the first quarter as she prepares to face three other candidates, including Democrat Dr. Asif Mahmood, in the jungle primary. Mahmood pulled in $1.4 million in Q1. The seat is rated Likely Republican.
• CA-45: Republican Rep. Michelle Steel unseated Rep. Harley Rouda in 2020 and is facing a tough challenge to keep the seat. Steel will benefit from $1.7 million in ad buys from the Congressional Leadership Fund. She faces two candidates in the open-party primary, including Democrat Jay Chen, a military veteran with an endorsement from the New Democrat Coalition Action Fund, who raised over $544,000 in the first quarter. The seat is rated a toss-up.
• CA-47: The Congressional Leadership Fund is targeting progressive Rep. Katie Porter with $1.8 million in ad buys. Porter’s tough questions in the House Committee on Oversight and Reform garner frequent attention on social media, which helped raise her profile as she faces a field of four Republicans in the open-party primary including Scott Baugh, who has over $1.2 million on hand. The seat is rated Lean Democratic.
• GA-06: New district boundaries pushed out Democratic Rep. Lucy McBath and make this seat more conservative. Voters within the new boundaries supported Trump in 2020 by a 13-point margin, and he endorsed candidate Jake Evans, who is vying for the Republican nomination along with eight others. Democrats Bob Christian and Wayne White are contesting the seat. The seat is rated Solid Republican.
• GA-07: The three Democratic primary contenders faced off in a debate earlier this month, including Reps. Carolyn Bourdeaux and Lucy McBath. The re-drawn district pulls in many of Bourdeaux’s current constituents, but McBath has an edge in fundraising and recent polling. McBath also has a high profile on gun safety due to the murder of her son Jordan Davis and endorsements from groups like Everytown for Gun Safety. Former State Rep. Donna McLeod is the third Democrat seeking the nomination. Five Republicans are running. The district is rated Solid Democratic.
• FL-15: Jay Collins, the presumed Republican frontrunner to take on Rep. Cathy Castor in FL-11, instead announced he will run for the newly created 15th district following the approval of a new congressional map which made the 11th district lean further in Castor’s favor. Collins will face five other Republicans in a difficult primary, including State Rep. Jackie Toledo and former Rep. Dennis Ross. The winner will run against the Democratic primary victor, either Gavin Brown or Jesse Phillippe. The race is rated Likely Republican.
• IA-01: Democratic challenger State Rep. Christina Bohannan had a slight edge in Q1 fundraising compared to Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks. The incumbent raised $439,000 to Bohannan’s $513,000. Yet, Miller-Meeks has a large cash-on-hand advantage, with $2,104,460 to Bohannan’s $822,188. The seat is rated Likely Republican.
• IA-02: Republican Rep. Ashley Hinson narrowly outraised her Democratic challenger in Q1. Hinson raised $959,000 compared to State Sen. Liz Mathis’ $715,000. Hinson maintains a cash-on-hand advantage, with $1,783,000 to Mathis’ $1,354,000. The seat is rated Likely Republican.
• IA-03: Democratic Rep. Cindy Axne announced strong fundraising numbers as she looks to win reelection in a district that narrowly voted for Trump in 2020. Axne raised $766,566 and has $2,565,536 on hand. Her Republican challenger Nicole Hasso reported $200,748 in receipts and has only $140,904 on hand. The district is rated a toss-up.
• IL-13: Nikki Budzinski remains the Democratic frontrunner, earning praise from both Democrats and Republicans, including Rep. Cheri Bustos who called her campaign the best run in the nation. Budzinski is up against the winner of a crowded Republican primary race that includes prominent lawyer Jesse Reising, under recent criticism for fake hunting photos. The district is rated Lean Democrat.
• MI-03: Incumbent Peter Meijer, one of ten Republicans voting to impeach Trump, outraised former Trump official John Gibbs in Q1, raising $553,135 compared to Gibbs’ $123,035. On the Democratic side, Hillary Scholten is running unopposed. Meijer defeated Scholten in the 2020 general election, earning 53 percent of the vote. The seat is rated a toss-up.
• MI-07: Rep. Elissa Slotkin is running for re-election in the new seventh congressional district. State Sen. Tom Barrett and Jacob Hagg are jockeying for the Republican nomination in the August 2 primary. Slotkin was named one of the most bipartisan members of the House, and the new map will be slightly more favorable for her. The seat is rated a toss-up.
• MI-10: Rep. Lisa McClain is running in the redrawn ninth congressional district, leaving the tenth open. The Democratic primary is crowded, with five candidates running for the nomination including former State Rep. Henry Yanez, activist Huwaida Arraf, and Warren council member Angela Rogensues. On the Republican side, West Point graduate and Army Ranger John James is running against software engineer Tony Marcinkewicz. James was previously the Republican nominee for the Senate in 2018 and 2020, falling to Senators Debbie Stabenow and Gary Peters in the general elections. The seat is rated Lean Republican.
• MN-1: Minnesota’s first district will hold a special election following the death of Republican Rep. Jim Hagedorn. Out of the 10 Republican candidates vying to fill the role, the race will likely come down to state party chairwoman and widow of Rep. Hagedorn, Jennifer Carnahan, State Reps. Jeremy Munson and Nels Pierson, former Trump USDA Minnesota director Brad Finstad, and agriculture attorney Matt Benda. The Democratic side is also crowded with candidates including former President George W. Bush’s White House lawyer Richard Painter and political consultant Sarah Brakebill-Hacke. The race is rated Likely Republican.
• NJ-07: The Congressional Leadership Fund is targeting Democratic Rep. Tom Malinowski with a $2.5 million ad buy. Malinowski, who defeated five-term Republican incumbent Leonard Lance in 2018, has an easy path to victory in the primary, facing off against a Trump-supporting Democrat Roger Bacon who has not reported raising any money. In a difficult year for Democrats generally, Malinowski faces an uphill battle against the winner of the seven-candidate Republican primary. Malinowski won his seat by two points in 2020, however, redistricting made his seat significantly more favorable for Republicans. The seat is rated Lean Republican.
• NV-01: Democratic Rep. Dina Titus brought in $360,000 during Q1 and has $1.12 million on hand. Titus has one primary opponent, Amy Vilela, who has raised over $300,000 during the campaign but reported only $46,000 on hand. On the Republican side, a crowded field is vying to take on Titus. The three top fundraising Republicans, Mark Robertson, Carolina Serrano — who was recently endorsed by GOP Conference Chair Rep. Elise Stefanik (R-NY) — and David Brog, all reported over $200,000 on hand. Former Rep. Cresent Hardy also entered the race but did not file a contribution report in Q1. The seat is rated Lean Democrat.
• NV-03: Democratic Rep. Susie Lee announced a Q1 fundraising haul of over $575,000, with more than $2.1 million on hand. Lee currently has one primary opponent, Randell Hynes. On the Republican side, April Becker is leading a crowded field of five candidates after securing an endorsement from House Republican leadership. Becker currently has over $400,000 on hand. The seat is rated a toss-up.
• NV-04: Rep. Stephen Horsford will face one of three Republicans including top fundraisers Annie Black, who has $292,000 on hand, and Sam Peters, who has $200,000. Horsford announced over $500,000 in contributions in Q1, with more than $1.9 million on hand. The seat is rated a toss-up.
• TN-05: The effective date of Tennessee’s new residency law allowed candidates to stay on the ballot, but the state Republican party decided to remove conservative social media influencer Robby Starbuck, Trump-endorsed Morgan Ortagus, and Baxter Lee from the ballot for failing to meet Republican “bona fides.” Starbuck is pursuing litigation over the party’s decision. Nashville lawyer and retired National Guard Brig. Gen. Kurt Winstead, former state house speaker Beth Harwell, and Maury County Mayor Andy Ogles have the best chances to win the nomination among the remaining candidates. The seat is rated Solid Republican.
• TX-15: Republican nominee Monica De La Cruz announced a Q1 fundraising haul of $514,000, with $362,000 on hand. Her strong fundraising numbers will be boosted by $2.2 million in ad reservations from the Congressional Leadership Fund. De La Cruz will face the winner of the Democratic primary run-off, either Ruben Ramirez or Michelle Vallejo, who both have less than $100,000 on hand. The race is rated Lean Republican.
• TX-28: The leaked draft Supreme Court opinion overturning Roe v. Wade has scrambled the run-off election between Democratic Rep. Henry Cuellar and challenger Jessica Cisneros. Cuellar — who found out last month that despite having his home and office raided in January, he is not the target of a Department of Justice investigation — is one of the last remaining pro-life Democrats at the federal level. Cisneros, on the other hand, has the endorsement of NARAL Pro-Choice America. The winner of the run-off will face either Cassy Garcia, who was recently endorsed by Maggie’s List, a political action committee supporting conservative women, or Sandra Whitten in the general election. The Congressional Leadership Fund also announced a $3.9 million ad buy targeting the race. The seat is rated a toss-up.
• WY-At Large: Trump will host a rally with former gubernatorial candidate Harriet Hageman on May 28 to support her primary challenge against Rep. Liz Cheney, who was ousted from House Republican leadership and censured by the Wyoming Republican party in response to her vote to impeach Trump. Cheney is one of two Republicans working with Democrats on the committee investigating the January 6 attacks. The race is a rated Solid Republican.

RATINGS

The Cook Political Report lists 33 Democratic-held and 10 Republican-held seats as Lean or Toss-Up and rates four Democratic-held seats as Likely or Solid Republican and zero Republican seat as Likely Democratic. Inside Elections considers 28 Democratic-held and 12 Republican-held seats as Tilt/Lean or Toss-Up, with two Democratic seats as Likely Republican and one Republican district as Likely Democratic. Click to enlarge each chart.

SENATE

In the wake of the leaked Supreme Court draft opinion, both the National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC) and the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee (DSCC) are using the historic moment to rally voters. The DSCC called for the protection and expansion of the Democrats’ Senate majority to confirm or reject future nominees to the Court.

While most Republican groups spent time focusing on the leak itself, the NRSC prepared candidates with talking points to “be the compassionate, consensus builder on abortion,” as well as focusing on abortion later in pregnancy, the possibility of tax-payer-funded abortion, and party-base galvanizing phrases such as “abortion on demand.” The NRSC reserved $53 million in ads for top battleground states compared to the DSCC’s $33 million initial ad buy.

Primary Results

• Idaho: As expected, Republican Sen. Mike Crapo won his party’s primary against two underfunded and less familiar candidates. In the Democratic primary field, David Roth beat Ben Pursley. Roth is the executive director of a youth development council in Idaho Falls that seeks to reduce substance abuse among youth. In the last general election, Crapo safely won the state 66 percent to 27 percent and will likely receive a similar outcome in November. This race is rated Solid Republican.
• Indiana: This May 3 primary provided far fewer fireworks than Ohio, with Republican Sen. Todd Young and Democratic Hammond Mayor Thomas McDermott both running unopposed. Young is expected to cruise to victory in a state with no statewide Democratic elected officials, as he outraised McDermott by more than four times in the first quarter. However, the long-shot McDermott is using this opportunity to paint Young in a negative light as a career politician and Washington insider benefitting from corporate PACs.
• Kentucky: No surprises in Kentucky, as Sen. Rand Paul won the Republican nomination over his relatively unknown primary challengers. Former State Rep. Charles Booker secured the Democratic nomination. Easy victories for both candidates set the stage for a November battle considered Solid Republican. Booker has experience exceeding expectations as an underdog, as his rise to fame during the 2020 primary against DSCC-backed Amy McGrath took many people by surprise. However, as of April 27, Paul had raised over $14 million more than his Democratic counterpart. Combining the fundraising disparity with the fact that a Democrat has not been elected to the Senate from Kentucky since 1992, it is difficult to see a path where Booker wins. But, as Kentucky Derby winner Rich Strike (80–1 odds) can attest, the state is no stranger to long shots winning on “race day.”
• Ohio: On May 3, Hillbilly Elegy author JD Vance secured the Republican nomination to succeed retiring Sen. Rob Portman with 32 percent of the vote. Former state treasurer Josh Mandel and state senator Matt Dolan finished in second and third, respectively. Vance’s victory is a win for Trump and MAGA voters. Trump’s endorsement gave Vance a noticeable boost to frontrunner status. The former venture capitalist also received record-breaking support in the form of $15 million in donations to a Super PAC from tech billionaire Peter Thiel. On the Democratic side, Rep. Tim Ryan defeated progressive candidate Morgan Harper, setting up a high stakes general election matchup that leans Republican. Ryan debuted his messaging for the general election, painting Vance as a wealthy celebrity who left Ohio for the greener pastures of San Francisco. Expect the general election to focus on inflation, which voters on both sides of the political spectrum highlight as their number one concern. Abortion and the status of Roe v. Wade will also likely be a hot-button issue.
• Pennsylvania: In a closely watched election, Lt. Gov. John Fetterman coasted to the Democratic nomination, winning all 67 counties and receiving 59 percent of the vote. Fetterman, who suffered from a stroke just days ahead of the primary, pulled away from moderate Rep. Conor Lamb and progressive State Rep. Malcolm Kenyatta and is expected to make a full recovery. On the Republican side, the race is likely headed to a recount with Trump-endorsed celebrity Dr. Mehmet Oz clinging to a narrow 1,080 vote lead over Bridgewater CEO David McCormick (31.2 percent to 31.1 percent) as of late on May 19. Despite a late surge in the polls, ultra-MAGA Kathy Barnette, who Trump said has a bright future in the Republican party, finished in third place with around 25 percent of the vote. Because there is no runoff law in Pennsylvania, a recount is automatically triggered if the winning margin is less than 0.5 percent of the total votes cast. In this case, with around 1.3 million votes cast, the winner would need a margin of around 6,000–6,800 votes to avoid a recount. In a state Trump carried by 0.7 percent in 2016 and that Biden carried by 1.2 points, the general election is a true toss-up, regardless of who emerges from the Republican primary.
• North Carolina: Former State Supreme Court Justice Cheri Beasley overwhelmingly secured the Democratic nomination in the May 17 primary. Rep. Ted Budd and former Governor Pat McCrory were teed up for a showdown, but Budd won handily after receiving Trump’s endorsement. Beasley and Budd are competing for the open Senate seat left by retiring Republican Sen. Richard Burr. The race is rated Lean Republican.
• Oregon: Democratic Sen. Ron Wyden easily won his party’s nomination against William Barlow, an Oregon Department of Consumer and Business Services Electrical and Elevator Board member, and Brent Thompson, who served as city councilor and planning commissioner. Jo Rae Perkins will again be the Republican Senate nominee, reprising her role from her 2020 challenge to Sen. Jeff Merkley. A self-described “Main Street American,” Perkins is a vocal supporter of the QAnon conspiracy theory. This race is rated Solid Democratic.

FROM THE FRONTLINES

• Alabama: Recent polling shows Katie Britt, former chief of staff to retiring Sen. Richard Shelby, moving into the Republican lead with 32 percent and Mike Durant and Mo Brooks at 21.4 percent and 22.5 percent, respectively, with 15.5 percent of voters still undecided. In the likely event none of the candidates gets more than half the votes on May 24, the top two vote-getters will head to a runoff on June 21. The race is rated Solid Republican.
• Alaska: While four candidates regardless of party will emerge from the August 16 primary, it is likely only a two-person race between third-term Sen. Lisa Murkowski and Kelly Tshibaka, her Trump-backed challenger. Tshibaka, the former commissioner of the Alaska Department of Administration, is attacking Murkowski for supporting Biden’s agenda, citing Murkowski’s vote to confirm Justice Ketanji Brown Jackson and other Biden nominees, including Interior Secretary Deb Haaland. However, in what is another proxy contest between Trump and the GOP establishment, Murkowski is maintaining support from both Leader McConnell and the NRSC. The general election will implement ranked choice voting for the first time, which should benefit Murkowski assuming she can attract votes from independent voters and conservative-leaning Democrats. On the Democratic side, Anchorage State Senator Elvi Gray-Jackson withdrew from the race due to fundraising challenges. Pat Chesbro, a former teacher, principal, and superintendent, recently joined the field after being motivated to run by the leaked draft Supreme Court opinion. Still, in a solidly Republican state, all eyes will be on Murkowski and Tshibaka as we approach November.
• Arizona: The DSCC is spending $7.5 million on ads in support of Sen. Mark Kelly, whose most recent TV ad spotlights a former GOP voter and small business owner praising Kelly for helping his business receive federal aid. Missouri Sen. Josh Hawley endorsed Republican primary candidate Blake Masters, who also earned the endorsement of his former boss and tech billionaire Peter Thiel, who donated $10 million to a Super PAC backing Masters. Trump is yet to make an official endorsement but did call into a campaign event for Masters. This race is rated a toss-up.
• Georgia: In one of the most contentious Senate races, Democratic Sen. Raphael Warnock and former football star Herschel Walker are less than a week away from their respective primaries. University of Georgia polls have Walker as the Republican frontrunner, with Georgia Agricultural Commissioner Gary Black as a notable contender. Warnock faces Tamara Johnson-Shealey, a former business owner and lobbyist for the beauty and barber industry, for the Democratic nomination. The race is rated a toss-up.
• Nevada: Senator Catherine Cortez Masto (D-NV) is receiving extra support from the DSCC in the amount of $8.4 million in ad buys — significantly more than the $3 million from the NRSC so far. This will allow Cortez Masto the time and cash to run positive ads across the state while her Republican challengers sort out who their nominee will be. Republican primary candidates Joey Gilbert, an attorney, and Sam Brown, an Army veteran, received the Nevada GOP endorsement in votes held at the end of April according to the Reno Gazette Journal. While these endorsements may not affect the outcome of GOP voters’ choice in the June 14 primary, it is a helpful boost to candidates in the final month of the primary race. This race is rated a toss-up.
• New Hampshire: Following the leak of the SCOTUS draft opinion, Sen. Maggie Hassan put renewed focus on abortion rights in her reelection campaign, criticizing the pro-life statements from two of her potential Republican opponents, Don Bolduc and State Senate President Chuck Morse. Hassan is running unopposed for the Democratic nomination. Republican Gov. Chris Sununu stated abortion will remain safe and legal in the state. However, a ban on most abortions after 24 weeks went into effect this year, and earlier this month, the Republican-controlled state legislature defeated an effort to codify Roe in state law. The primary is scheduled for September 13. The race is rated Lean Democratic.
• Wisconsin: Republican Sen. Ron Johnson will face the winner of the August 9 Democratic primary. Recently, there is a rush of Democratic ads against Johnson, including a $2.7 million TV and digital ad buy from Majority Forward. The Senate Majority PAC aligned with Democratic Leader Chuck Schumer reserved more than $12 million in TV airtime after the primary. On the other side, a Super PAC aligned with Leader McConnell reserved $12 million in airtime in the state. The race is rated a toss-up.

RATINGS

The Cook Political Report lists five Democratic-held and five Republican-held seats as Likely, Lean, or Toss-Up. Inside Elections lists four Democratic-held and four Republican seats as Likely, Tilt/Lean, or Toss-Up.

GOVERNORS

If the Supreme Court follows through on its plans to overturn Roe v. Wade, attention will turn to governors to see how the end of federal protections will impact abortion access in their states. The leak of the draft opinion is already having a big impact on several gubernatorial races.

Five of the 36 states in cycle this year have nominated their gubernatorial candidates: Idaho, Nebraska, Ohio, Oregon, and Pennsylvania.

PRIMARY RESULTS

• Idaho: Gov. Brad Little won the Republican nomination in deep red Idaho, fending off Lt. Gov. Janice McGeachin, who challenged the governor over his handling of the COVID-19 pandemic. Little will face Democrat Stephen Heidt, who beat two write-in candidates. Independent candidate Ammon Bundy is a wildcard in the general election. Bundy is infamous for armed standoffs with the federal government over land use issues in the state. The race is rated Solid Republican.
• Nebraska: Trump saw his first high-profile endorsement suffer a primary defeat when pig farmer and University of Nebraska regent Jim Pillen won the Republican nomination with the support of outgoing Gov. Pete Ricketts. Trump endorsed Charles Herbster, who faced allegations of sexual misconduct during a bitter primary campaign. Herbster is withholding his endorsement in the race until he resolves a lawsuit over the allegations. State Sen. Carol Blood won the Democratic nomination. The race is rated Solid Republican.
• Ohio: Gov. Mike DeWine won the Republican nomination, beating three candidates after a tough primary campaign focused on his handling of the COVID-19 pandemic. Trump stayed out of the race, distancing himself from DeWine whom he endorsed in 2018. Democrat Nan Whaley defeated former Cincinnati mayor John Cranley by 30 percent, earning the party’s nomination. Voters will be watching the governor’s response to the leaked Supreme Court opinion. DeWine said the state attorney general will ask a federal judge to approve a state law effectively banning abortions as early as six weeks after contraception if Roe v. Wade is overturned. Whaley vowed to protect abortion rights if elected as first female governor of Ohio. The race is rated Likely Republican.
• Oregon: Former State House Speaker Democrat Tina Kotek defeated Treasurer Tobias Read by 24 percent. If Kotek wins in November, she will be the first openly lesbian governor. Former State Rep. Christine Drazan beat businessman and former state lawmaker Bob Tiernan for the GOP bid. Independent candidate Betsy Johnson is seeking 23,750 signatures to land a spot on the November ballot and leads both parties in fundraising efforts. This race is rated Likely Democrat.
• Pennsylvania: Republican State Sen. Doug Mastriano won the GOP primary with 44 percent of the vote, defeating the other four candidates. Trump endorsed Mastriano four days before the election. Mastriano denies the results of the 2020 presidential election and led buses of participants to the January 6 insurrection. He will face Democratic Attorney General Josh Shapiro in November, who ran unopposed in the Democratic primary. In response to Mastriano’s win, the Republican Governors Association signaled it would pull out of the state, saying it “remains committed to engaging in competitive gubernatorial contests where our support can have an impact commit resources elsewhere.” The race moved from toss-up to Lean Democrat.

FROM THE FRONTLINES

• Arizona: After spending $5 million of his own money, Republican candidate Steve Gaynor ended his bid to replace term-limited Gov. Doug Ducey. This leaves Board of Regents member Karrin Taylor Robson, former news anchor Kari Lake, and former Rep. Matt Salmon in the race for the GOP bid. On the Democratic side, former State Rep. Aaron Lieberman and Arizona Secretary of State Katie Hobbs are vying for the nomination. The race is considered a toss-up.
• Florida: Prior to the leaking of the draft Supreme Court opinion, DeSantis signed into law HB 5, the Reducing Fetal and Infant Mortality Act. This outlaws all abortions after 15 weeks and will go into effect July 1. DeSantis advised people to take caution when reading leaked “stuff out of a court, which is really unprecedented.” DeSantis remains ahead of Democrats Rep. Charlie Crist, Florida Agriculture Commissioner Nikki Fried, and State Senator Annette Taddeo. The race is rated Likely Republican.
• Georgia: Former Vice President Mike Pence broke with Trump to support Gov. Brian Kemp in his bid for re-election against former Sen. David Perdue in the primary. Pence joins former President George W. Bush, Arizona Gov. Doug Ducey, Nebraska Gov. Pete Ricketts, and former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie in support of Kemp. Perdue lags Kemp in recent polls. In addition, while Perdue has yet to disclose his recent fundraising and spending, Kemp’s campaign announced $10.7 million raised in the last reporting period. Democratic candidate Stacey Abrams received a $1 million donation from billionaire philanthropist George Soros, contributing to the $11.7 million the unopposed candidate raised between February and April. Regarding the leaked SCOTUS opinion, Perdue vowed to “eliminate all abortion in the state of Georgia” if he wins. Kemp signed an anti-abortion law in 2019 ruled unconstitutional in 2020. Georgia appealed, but the case is on hold due to the pending Supreme Court decision. Abrams tweeted if she becomes governor, she would “defend the right to an abortion and fight for reproductive justice.” This race is rated a toss-up.
• Kansas: Democratic Gov. Laura Kelly recently vetoed Kansas Republicans’ proposed ban on transgender athletes in girls’ and women’s sports. Kelly’s Republican opponent Attorney General Derek Schmidt said he is supportive of the measure. Kelly also vetoed a Republican proposal making it easier for parents to remove materials from public school classrooms and libraries. Regarding Roe v. Wade, Kelly pledged to oppose “all regressive legislation” infringing on individual rights. Schmidt said he will hold his comments until the official decision is released, but believes the leak was shameful and an attempt to politicize the Court. This race is considered a toss-up.
• Maine: Democratic Gov. Janet Mills raised more than $2.7 million as of the end of April and reported $2 million cash-on-hand. Republican opponent and former Gov. Paul LaPage raised $1.3 million and reported $855,000 cash on hand. At the Maine Democratic state convention, Mills touted her support for lower health care costs, LGBT rights, and funding for the Maine Center for Disease Control and Prevention and schools. When speaking of LePage’s tenure as governor, Mills said, “We won’t go back.” The race is rated Lean Democratic.
• Maryland: House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer endorsed author and entrepreneur Wes Moore for the Democratic nomination, the most prominent Democrat to make an endorsement thus far. Former Obama labor secretary Tom Perez is touting his support among unions and civil rights groups. On the Republican side, Kelly Schulz remains ahead of Daniel Cox. Schulz is backed by term-limited Gov. Larry Hogan, and Cox received support from Trump. This race is rated Lean Democratic.
• Michigan: The eight Republican gubernatorial candidates participated in a debate on May 12. All but two dispute the fact that Biden won the state by about 154,000 votes. Businessman Michael Market and State Police Capt. Mike Brown are the two GOP candidates who accept the election results. Each of the eight candidates stated they are pro-life and would support legislation banning abortions in Michigan, pending the Supreme Court’s decision. Following the Supreme Court leak, Democratic Gov. Gretchen Whitmer tweeted she would “fight like hell” to ensure abortions remain available and safe in Michigan. This race is rated a toss-up.
• Nevada: In response to the leaked draft opinion, Democratic Gov. Steve Sisolak committed to championing reproductive freedom in Nevada as long as he is governor. Republican opponent and former Senator Dean Heller said, “I am the only proven conservative in this race and the only one who has consistently supported and voted to confirm conservative, pro-life judges.” Trump endorsed Clark County Sheriff Joe Lombardo. This race is a toss-up.
• New York: Democratic Gov. Kathy Hochul assumed office following Andrew Cuomo’s resignation. After Lt. Gov. Brian Benjamin resigned last month after facing corruption charges, Hochul selected Rep. Antonio Delgado to be second-in-command. The pick diversifies her ticket, but also weakens Democrats’ chances to hold onto the House. One of Hochul’s strongest primary challengers, Rep. Tom Suozzi, quickly criticized Hochul’s anti-crime efforts following a mass shooting at a Buffalo supermarket that killed 10 people on May 14.

RATINGS

The ratings from Cook Political Report and Inside Elections have not changed since our last issue. Cook Political Report lists six Democratic-held seats as Lean Democratic or Toss-Up compared to two Republican-held seats as Toss-Up and two Republican-held open seats rated as Likely or Lean Democratic. Inside Elections counts six Democratic-held seats and four Republican-held seats as competitive with either Toss-up, Tilt, or Lean ratings, with the open Republican seats in Maryland and Massachusetts in the Lean Democratic column. Click to enlarge each chart.