Election Update — Issue 3

209 days until Election Day

Credit: iStock.com/tostphoto

It is time to look at numbers. The 2020 Census sheds new light on population growth and demographic changes over the past decade. Metropolitan areas, including suburbs, grew nine percent, while rural areas grew by one percent. America is now more racially and ethnically diverse, driven by growth in the number of people who identify as Asian, Hispanic, Latino, or more than one race. These changing voter demographics are an important element of which party will control Congress in 2023.

Even as court challenges remain underway and some district lines are unfinished, one thing is certain: suburban voters will again play a pivotal role in deciding the outcome this fall. Democrats’ strong performances with suburban voters led to electoral victories in 2018 and 2020. However, a new dynamic confronts them in 2022: low approval ratings and core constituencies’ perceived lack of success. Independent women voters are front of mind as Republicans work to erase shifts from the previous two elections and Democrats attempt to avoid losing suburban ground.

President Joe Biden’s approval numbers, including suburban voters (44 percent according to a recent Marist College poll), spark anxiety among prominent Democrats. The interplay between increasingly Democratic-leaning, college-educated women and low party approval ratings across the board will help determine who controls key suburban congressional districts. Both sides are rallying around issues appealing to these voters, with Democrats highlighting the need to lower medical costs and Republicans focusing on education and school curriculum issues. Both parties are contending with rising consumer prices, with Democrats seeking to avoid backlash by casting blame on profiteering by big corporations and “Putin’s price hike,” and Republicans zeroing in on fuel costs and blaming the Biden-Harris Administration’s COVID-19 response for ongoing inflation.

In addition, recent polling from the Wall Street Journal indicates Democrats are in trouble with Latino voters, a key voting bloc and significant suburban presence. Latino voters are gradually shifting right, with Hispanic voters backing a generic Republican candidate over a generic Democratic candidate by nine points, a clear warning sign as the same poll showed Democrats and Republicans tied last November.

Strong Black voter turnout was crucial to Democratic wins to take back the Senate and White House in 2020. But that support is also waning from 83 percent last summer to 62 percent in March, according to an NBC News poll. Researchers did not find a boost in support following the nomination of Judge Ketanji Brown Jackson, the first Black woman nominated to serve on the Supreme Court. New congressional maps drawn to account for 2020 Census data did not translate into additional Black-majority congressional districts despite several Voting Rights Act challenges.

With 209 days to go until Election Day, here is Invariant’s outlook on the state of play in the House, Senate, and gubernatorial races.

KEY DATES

HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES

Last week, Reps. Fred Upton (R-MI) and Bob Gibbs (R-OH) joined 32 colleagues in announcing their retirements. An additional sixteen Members are leaving and running for other political offices. Redistricting is one factor driving many Members of Congress to seek other opportunities. Democrats are hopeful a better-than-feared redistricting process will help them hold on to House control.

Republicans must pick up five seats to retake the speaker’s gavel, assuming they hold on to vacant seats in AK-AL, CA-22, MN-01, and NE-01. The GOP has good opportunities to flip vacant seats in AZ-06, MI-10, TX-15, and WI-03 and endangered Democratic Reps. Tom Malinowski in NJ-07 and Tom O’Halleran in AZ-02. Democrats have a good chance of flipping four Republican-held seats with more favorable maps, including three vacant seats in IL-13, NY-01, NY-22, and the challenge to Rep. Nicole Malliotakis in NY-11.

On April 5, polls closed in the CA-22 special election to replace Republican Rep. Devin Nunes, who resigned in January. Republican Connie Conway and Democrat Lourin Hubbard emerged from the top-two open primary with 35 percent and 19 percent of the vote. They will proceed to a runoff on June 7, the same day California holds its statewide primary election. This seat is considered a toss-up.

Three more seats are vacant following the death of Rep. Don Young (R-AK) and the resignations of Reps. Jeff Fortenberry (R-NE) and Filemon Vela (D-TX). Fortenberry resigned from Congress following his March 24 conviction for concealing illegal campaign contributions and lying to federal agents. Vela resigned from Congress on April 1 to take a job with a law firm. Vela previously announced he would not seek re-election ahead of redistricting. Texas Gov. Greg Abbott called a June 14 special election to fill the 34th district under the old map for the remaining few months.

REDISTRICTING

Three states still have not approved new congressional maps — Florida, Missouri, and New Hampshire. Forty-one states completed their congressional map-drawing process, and six states have only one at-large district statewide. As of now, Democrats secured an additional 10 Democratic-leaning seats nationally, Republicans lost six seats that lean red, and five fewer districts are considered competitive. Of the approved maps, 15 states are engaged in active litigation challenges. Here’s a quick snapshot:

• In Florida, Republican Gov. Ron DeSantis delivered on his promise to veto the map approved by the Republican-controlled legislature, arguing the map is unconstitutional because it assigns voters based on race without achieving a compelling state interest. Republican lawmakers this week announced they would defer to DeSantis on drawing a new congressional map to appease the governor and end intraparty tensions.
• In Louisiana, the legislature voted to override Democratic Gov. John Bel Edwards’ veto, splitting nearly down party lines in both chambers — with only one Democrat joining the entire Republican delegation in voting to override the veto. Following the override, civil rights groups launched a legal challenge to block the map, arguing the boundaries violate the Voting Rights Act because they do not add a second majority-Black district.
• On April 4, Maryland Republican Gov. Larry Hogan signed a new map into law after the previous version was thrown out by a state judge over “extreme gerrymandering.” In contrast to the old map, which created seven blue seats and one red seat, the new map has six Democratic-leaning seats, one Republican-leaning seat, and one competitive seat.
• In Missouri, Republican majorities continue the standoff between the legislative chambers. On March 31, the House voted down the Senate’s map for a second time and made a second request to form a conference committee to resolve the differences. Republican Senate leaders declined, continuing the standoff even as the filing deadline for candidates passed ahead of the August 2 primaries.
• In New Hampshire, Republican Gov. Chris Sununu released his proposed congressional map creating two highly competitive districts. Sununu previously promised to veto the map passed by the Senate on March 17, which favored Democrats. On April 4, former Democratic House Speaker Terie Norelli joined as one of the lead plaintiffs in a lawsuit asking the courts to step in to finalize the map.
• On March 31, a Republican judge struck down New York’s congressional map because it was unconstitutionally gerrymandered, giving the legislature until April 11 to present a new map with bipartisan support. The Senate appealed the ruling to New York’s highest court, putting the map back into effect pending a final decision. The highest court is made up solely of Democratic appointees who will now review a map that creates 20 Democratic-leaning seats, four Republican-leaning seats, and two competitive seats.
• In North Carolina, due to the Supreme Court decision dismissing requests to review lower court-ordered congressional maps, a remedial map goes into effect for the 2022 election only. The remedial map creates five safe Republican districts, two Republican-leaning seats, three safe Democratic seats, and two Democratic-leaning districts. A new map will need to come together before the 2024 election.
• In Ohio, redistricting battles continue between the court and the state’s two other branches of government. On March 2, Republicans on the Ohio Redistricting Commission approved a map, but it will only be valid for two election cycles since it was passed along party lines. The map is being challenged in the Ohio Supreme Court, but that effort is not likely to impact this year’s election.
• In Wisconsin, the U.S. Supreme Court on March 23 denied Republican appeals over the state’s congressional map, clearing the way for the map drawn by Democratic Gov. Tony Evers. The map still favors Republicans, with six Republican-leaning seats and two Democratic-leaning seats. However, the new map makes the first district more competitive than the Republican proposal.

FUNDRAISING

Last month, the Democratic House Majority Super PAC rolled out a $102 million ad buy in over 50 media markets after raising $16 million in Q1 and has $46 million cash on hand. Its Republican counterpart, Congressional Leadership Fund, raised $37.5 million in Q1 and enters the second quarter with $93.5 million cash on hand.

The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) raised $52.4 million in Q1, including $21.3 million in March, with $113.2 million cash on hand. The National Republican Campaign Committee (NRCC) announced a record-breaking first quarter with $40.9 million, including $19.4 million in March, with $94.7 million cash on hand. The NRCC also added 10 open seats and seven Democratic incumbents to its target list: Reps. Julia Brownley (CA-26), Kathy Castor (FL-14), Bill Foster (IL-11), Kathy Manning (NC-06), Melanie Stansbury (NM-01), Dina Titus (NV-01), and Marcy Kaptur (OH-09). The committee is targeting 72 districts, 33 of which President Biden carried by at least 10 points.

FROM THE BATTLEGROUND

• AK-At Large: Former vice-presidential candidate Sarah Palin filed to succeed the late Rep. Don Young (R-AK) and will face 50 other challengers in an open primary, with the top four finishers appearing on the special election ballot in August. Other candidates include Republican State Sen. Josh Revak; Republican software executive Nick Begich III, grandson of Nick Begich, Sr. — Young’s predecessor and patriarch of one of Alaska’s most powerful Democratic families; former Republican State Sen. John Coghill; former Republican U.S. Department of the Interior official Tara Sweeney; and Democratic Anchorage Assemblyman Chris Constant. The seat is rated Solid Republican.
• AZ-06: Democratic Rep. Ann Kirkpatrick decided against seeking re-election after nearly 70 percent of her second district was drawn into the new sixth district. Democratic former State Senator Kirsten Engel and Republican Juan Ciscomani, a senior advisor to Gov. Doug Ducey, lead their respective primaries. The race is rated Lean Republican.
• CA-13: Democratic Rep. Josh Harder is switching districts to run for re-election in California’s ninth district following Democratic Rep. Jerry McNerney’s retirement, leaving the 13th district open. Three Democrats and two Republicans are running to replace Harder. The Democratic frontrunner is Phil Arballo, a Fresno small business owner who sits on the Central California Hispanic Chamber of Commerce and is the Fresno Bicycle and Pedestrian Advisory Committee chairman. The seat is rated Lean Democratic, with Republicans John Duarte, David Giglio, and Diego Martinez joining the open primary.
• CA-22: In the new 22nd district, Republican Rep. David Valadao will need to secure one of the top two spots in the open primary on June 7 to keep his seat in Congress. Valadao has won in tough districts before, but his vote in favor of Trump’s second impeachment and fellow Republicans Chris Mathys and Adam Medeiros on the primary ballot could split support leaving Valadao off the ballot in the general election. The sole Democrat in the primary is State Assemblymember Rudy Salas. The race is rated a toss-up.
• CA-27: After redistricting, freshman Republican Rep. Mike Garcia shifts from the 25th district to the new 27th district. Garcia won his previous election by 335 votes. Although President Biden won this new district by 12 points, it is rated a toss-up.
• CA-45: Republican freshman Rep. Michelle Steel represents the 28th district but will pursue the new 45th seat, which includes inland Orange County and a slightly more Democratic electorate. In 2020, President Biden would have won by 6 points under the new map, compared to 1.5 points in Steel’s old district. The race is a toss-up.
• CO-08: State Rep. Yadira Caraveo is the Democratic nominee in this newly created seat located north of Denver after receiving 70.72 percent of the delegate vote on April 5. Six Republicans are vying for the toss-up seat — Weld County Commissioner Lori Saine, business owner Giulianna “Jewels” Gray, Thornton Mayor Jan Kulmann, first-time candidate Tyler Allcorn, and State Sen. Barb Kirkmeyer.
• GA-02: Democratic Rep. Sanford Bishop faces challenger Joseph O’Hara in the May 24 primary. Seven Republicans are competing in the primary, including GOP organizer Vivian Childs who lost the Republican 2020 primary for the seat and was recently endorsed by Maggie’s List. The race is rated Likely Democratic.
• IL-13: Democrats are vying for this seat after Republican Rep. Rodney Davis announced he would instead run for re-election in the newly drawn 15th district. Democrat Nikki Budzinski, a Peoria native and former Office of Management and Budget chief of staff, is the current frontrunner. She will be up against one of four Republican contenders, including longtime educator Regan Deering. The race is rated Lean Democratic.
• MI-04: Republican Rep. Fred Upton announced his retirement rather than face Republican Rep. Bill Huizenga for the new fourth district. Upton voted for Trump’s second impeachment, and Trump endorsed Huizenga in March. Democrats Joseph Alfonso and Chris Glasser will face off in the Democratic primary for this Solid Republican seat.
• NC-01: Democratic Rep. G.K. Butterfield decided to retire rather than face what appeared to be a less favorable map; however, court challenges resulted in a district essentially unchanged. State Senator and former Snow Hill Mayor Don Davis and former State Senator Erica Smith are viewed as the Democratic frontrunners for the May 17 primary. Davis received 100 state and local endorsements within the first 30 days of his campaign, but pro-choice advocates are raising concerns about his voting record. Republican candidates include health care leader Will Aiken, tech businessman Brad Murphy, retired Army officer Ernest Reeves, general contractor Brent Roberson, Rocky Mount Mayor Sandy Roberson, 2020 nominee Sandy Smith, attorney Billy Strickland, and Greenville native Henry Williams II. The race is rated Likely Democratic.
• NC-06: Democratic freshman Rep. Kathy Manning will face one of six Republican challengers coming out of the May 17 primary for this Likely Democratic seat. In 2020, Manning earned 62.3 percent of the vote, beating Republican Joseph Lee Haywood, who is running again.
• NC-13: Republican Rep. Ted Budd is running for the Senate, leaving this seat open. While Budd won this seat by 68.2 percent, redistricting added historically Democratic neighborhoods such as Raleigh. Five Democrats, including State Senator Wiley Nickel, are running to face one of eight Republican candidates in November, including former Rep. Renee Ellmers, who represented the second district from 2011 to 2017. The race is a toss-up.
• NE-01: Republican Rep. Jeff Fortenberry resigned following his conviction for concealing illegal campaign contributions and lying to federal agents. Though Fortenberry remains on the May 10 primary ballot, State Senator Mike Flood is expected to earn the Republican nomination. Patty Pansing Brooks and Jazari Kual Zakaria will face off in the Democratic primary. The seat is considered Solid Republican.
• NM-02: Republican Rep. Yvette Herrell flipped this seat in 2020, defeating Rep. Xochitl Torres Small. On June 7, Democratic candidates Darshan Patel and Gabriel Vasquez will face off to challenge Herrell. In 2020, 51.9 percent of voters supported President Biden, and this seat is rated as a toss-up.
• NY-01: Republican Rep. Lee Zeldin is running for governor. Eight Democrats are vying for the nomination in the June 28 primary, including Army veteran Jackie Gordon and Suffolk County Legislator Bridget Fleming. The winner will likely take on Suffolk County Republican Committee-backed candidate Nick LaLota.
• NY-11: Former Democratic Rep. Max Rose is facing off against Republican Rep. Nicole Malliotakis in this redistricted seat, which moved from supporting Trump with 55 percent of the votes in 2020 to one Biden would have won with 54 percent. Rose is the current frontrunner among Democrats but will face Army veteran Brittany Ramos DeBarros and longtime educator Dr. Komi Agoda-Koussema in the June 28 primary. The race is rated Lean Democratic.
• NY-22: Republican Rep. John Katko, who voted for Trump’s second impeachment, is retiring. The open seat is now Likely Democratic, with Francis Conole the frontrunner among six Democratic candidates. Conole is a commander in the Navy Reserves and a former Navy officer and policy advisor at the Pentagon. Republicans Mike Sigler and Brandon Williams are running for a chance to keep the seat in Republican control.
• OH-01: First elected in 2010, Republican Rep. Steve Chabot won the 2020 election by a slim margin. Chabot’s campaign highlights his record as the most conservative in the House. If he can hold off a primary challenge from Jenn Giroux, Chabot will face Cincinnati City Councilman Greg Landsman for this toss-up seat.
• OH-7: Republican Rep. Bob Gibbs announced his retirement last week, citing concerns over the redistricting “circus” in Ohio. Gibbs was facing Max Miller, a former Trump Administration aide, in the Republican primary. Developmental psychologist Matthew Diemer is running for the Democratic nomination. The race is considered Solid Republican.
• OR-06: Democrats are hoping to pick up this new Likely Democratic congressional seat, though a large portion of the district’s population is unregistered or unaffiliated with a party. There are currently a whopping 16 candidates running, including Democratic State Reps. Teresa Alonso Leon and Andrea Salinas and Republicans State Rep. Ron Noble and Army veteran Nate Sandvig.
• RI-02: After 11 terms, Democratic Rep. James Langevin is retiring. Democratic General Treasurer Seth Magaziner left the race for governor to vie for the second district. The vacancy also gives hope to Republicans who see Langevin’s retirement as creating a more even playing field. Among the Republican candidates is former Cranston Mayor and two-time gubernatorial candidate Allen Fung. The race is rated Lean Democratic.
• TN-05: Democratic Rep. Jim Cooper elected to retire rather than face a more conservative district after Nashville was carved up in the new map. On March 29, the Tennessee legislature passed a law requiring three years of state residency for congressional candidates. If signed by Republican Gov. Bill Lee, the legislation would disqualify Trump-backed Republican Morgan Ortagus, who relocated from Washington, D.C., to Nashville last year. Tennessee State Sen. Heidi Campbell is among four Democrats running to replace Cooper. The race is considered Solid Republican.

RATINGS

The Cook Political Report lists 35 Democratic-held and 11 Republican-held seats as Lean or Toss-Up and rates three Democratic seats as Likely or Solid Republican and one Republican seat as Likely Democratic. Inside Elections considers 23 Democratic-held and 11 Republican-held seats as Tilt/Lean or Toss-Up, with two Democratic seats as Likely Republican and one Republican district as Likely Democratic. Click to enlarge each chart.

SENATE

Latino voters are increasingly up for grabs in crucial Senate races. Democratic campaigns are spending more money earlier on recruiting and retaining Latino voters in states like Arizona and Nevada, where first-term Democratic Senators Mark Kelly and Catherine Cortez Masto are defending their battleground seats. The National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC) is emphasizing outreach to Latino voters, announcing “Vamos,” a multi-million-dollar initiative with field operations in Arizona, Colorado, Georgia, Florida, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Washington, and Wisconsin.

FROM THE FRONTLINES

• Alabama: Trump withdrew his endorsement of Rep. Mo Brooks, reflecting the candidate’s struggle to win support ahead of the May 24 primary. Retiring Sen. Richard Shelby pledged $5 million of his campaign war chest to support former aide Katie Britt. Republican businessman and military veteran Mike Durant has spent $1.2 million on ads since mid-October. Recent polling from The Hill/Emerson College shows Durant at 33 percent, Britt at 23 percent, and Brooks at just 12 percent, with 26 percent of voters undecided. Sixty-seven percent of Democratic voters are undecided, with candidates Will Boyd and Victor Williams nearly tied at just over 10 percent. The seat is considered Solid Republican.
• Alaska: Republican Sen. Lisa Murkowski faces an uphill battle after her votes to impeach Trump last year and confirm Judge Ketanji Brown Jackson to the Supreme Court. Murkowski was censured by the Alaska Republican Party for her impeachment vote, saying it did not want a moderate Republican representing the state. Trump endorsed Kelly Tshibaka, a former Alaska Department of Administration commissioner who is largely a political outsider with a history of controversial comments on homosexuality. The August 16 primary will be the state’s first for ranked-choice voting, with the top four candidates advancing, allowing Murkowski to attract Democratic and Independent voters. The race is rated Solid Republican.
• Arizona: Democratic Senator Mark Kelly broke from the Administration’s recent reversal of the Title 42 immigration public health order, navigating a challenging political environment. He will face one of three Republicans vying for their party’s nomination — Blake Masters, former venture capital executive; Jim Lamon, former owner of a solar energy company; and Attorney General Mark Brnovich, who currently leads the field. The race is rated a toss-up.
• Colorado: The crowded Republican primary field is winnowed down to two for June 28. State Rep. Ron Hanks beat five others in the April 9 state assembly delegate vote to join on the ballot construction company owner Joe O’Dea, who earned a spot via petition signatures. In November, the winner will face Democratic Senator Michael Bennet, who is unopposed on the primary ballot after unknown challenger Karen Breslin, an attorney and university instructor, failed to reach the 30 percent threshold at the state delegate convention last weekend. The race is rated Likely Democratic.
• Florida: Democratic Rep. Val Demings’ campaign announced it raised more than $10 million in Q1 and has more than $13 million cash on hand. A late February University of North Florida poll shows Republican Senator Marco Rubio leading Demings 46 to 34 percent. The race is rated Lean Republican.
• Georgia: An April 1–3 The Hill/Emerson College poll shows Republican Herschel Walker leading Democratic Senator Raphael Warnock 49 to 45 percent, with six percent undecided and a three-point margin of error. Walker leads the Republican primary with 57 percent against his closest competitor Agriculture Commissioner Gary Black at 13 percent and 16 percent undecided in the same poll. Walker was a no-show to the first Republican debate on April 9. The race is rated a toss-up.
• Iowa: Retired three-star Admiral Michael Franken raised nearly $1.4 million in Q1 for his campaign to be the Democratic nominee to challenge Republican Senator Chuck Grassley in November. Democratic Rep. Abby Finkenauer was expected to appear on the June 7 primary ballot, but a state district judge ruled some of her petition signatures invalid over the weekend. She said she would challenge the ruling. The race is considered Solid Republican.
• Missouri: Eric Greitens, who resigned as governor amid a scandal in 2018, is now accused of abuse by his ex-wife. He faces top contenders Rep. Vicky Hartzler and Secretary of State Eric Schmitt in the August 2 Republican primary. Democrats will choose between self-funder Trudy Busch Valentine, a well-known St. Louis philanthropist and Anheuser Busch heiress, and Marine veteran Lucas Kunce. The race is rated Solid Republican.
• Nevada: Democratic Senator Catherine Cortez Masto raised $4.4 million in Q1 and has $11 million cash on hand. Former Nevada Attorney General Adam Laxalt and newcomer Sam Brown, a U.S. Army veteran, are leading a crowded Republican field. However, Cortez Masto is trailing both Laxalt and Brown despite the cash advantage, according to a Suffolk University/Reno Gazette Journal poll, reflecting President Biden’s low approval rating in the state. The race is a toss-up.
• New Hampshire: Democratic Senator Maggie Hassan narrowly beat former Republican Senator Kelly Ayotte in the 2016 election by only 1,017 votes. Her re-election remains a challenge in this Lean Democratic race. On the Republican side, the three most formidable candidates are Donald Bolduc, a former U.S. Army Special Forces brigadier general and Trump-endorsed 2020 Senate candidate; Chuck Morse, former president of the New Hampshire State Senate; and Kevin Smith, former Londonderry Town Manager. Hassan announced raising $4.3 million in Q1 with $7.5 million cash on hand. A March St. Anselm College poll shows Hassan with five, seven, and 10 point leads in head-to-head match-ups with Bolduc, Morse, and Smith.
• North Carolina: As the May 17 primary approaches, an April 2–4 The Hill/Emerson College poll found Rep. Ted Budd leading the Republican field 38 percent to 22 percent for former Gov. Pat McCrory and nine percent for former Rep. Mark Walker, with 23 percent undecided. Presumptive Democratic nominee Cheri Beasley trails Budd by seven points in the same poll with eight percent undecided, and she leads McCrory 43 percent to 41 percent with 17 percent undecided. The race is rated Lean Republican.
• Ohio: Two GOP leading candidates — former State Treasurer and 2012 Senate nominee Josh Mandel and investment banker Mike Gibbons — were nearly in a physical altercation at a recent debate after Mandel accused Gibbons of making millions off business dealings with Chinese companies. Mandel was an early primary favorite, though Gibbons benefits from ads financed by nearly $12 million of his own money. Gibbons is facing scrutiny for dismissing the notion that women were oppressed when denied the right to vote. Former Ohio GOP Chairwoman Jane Timken is working to earn support from the GOP establishment and Trump loyalists alike, receiving the endorsement of moderate Sen. Rob Portman while emphasizing her Trump ties. Democrats are likely to nominate Rep. Tim Ryan, who is running a populist-style campaign modeled after Sen. Sherrod Brown, currently serving his third term. Ryan reported raising $4.1 million in Q1, with $6.4 million cash on hand. The race is rated Lean Republican.
• Pennsylvania: Celebrity physician Mehmet Oz and former Bridgewater Associates CEO David McCormick — the two GOP frontrunners — sought to solidify their conservative credentials at a forum on U.S. energy policy by taking shots at one another on fracking, a salient issue for Pennsylvania voters. McCormick is a top target in the crowded Republican field. Competitors are increasingly seeking to tie him to being too close to China, given previous comments embracing free trade and targeted immigration of highly skilled workers from China. This weekend Trump jumped off the sidelines and endorsed Oz after meeting both publicly at Mar-a-Lago. Meanwhile, the April 3 Democratic debate saw two of the three frontrunners — progressive Philadelphia-area State Rep. Malcolm Kenyatta and moderate Pittsburgh-area Rep. Conor Lamb — square off. Lt. Gov. John Fetterman, leading in primary polls by 23 points, decided to skip the debate though 37 percent of Democratic voters are undecided. Lamb went after Fetterman in absentia for pursuing and pulling a shotgun on a Black jogger while mayor of Braddock. Fetterman raised $3.1 million in Q1, adding to his $2.7 million Q4 haul, with $4.1 million cash on hand.
• Vermont: At-large Democratic Rep. Peter Welch is running to succeed retiring Democratic Senator Pat Leahy and is the presumptive nominee. Former U.S. Attorney Christina Nolan is running in the Republican primary. She could be a formidable challenger in this Solid Democratic race, having received bipartisan support in the Senate during her U.S. Attorney confirmation and the backing of Republican Gov. Phil Scott. Denouncing the January 6 attack on the Capitol and not seeking Trump’s endorsement, Nolan is running as a maverick vote for Republicans, akin to Sen. Susan Collins (R-ME).
• Wisconsin: Democratic candidates seeking to challenge Republican Senator Ron Johnson in November include Lt. Gov. Mandela Barnes, Milwaukee Bucks executive Alex Lasry, State Treasurer Sarah Godlewski, and Outagamie County Executive Tom Nelson. Barnes recently received endorsements from Sens. Cory Booker (D-NJ) and Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) and reported raising $1.7 million in Q1. Johnson launched ads in March, much later than his Democratic challengers. The race is a toss-up.

RATINGS

The Cook Political Report lists five Democratic-held and five Republican-held seats as Likely, Lean, or Toss-Up. Inside Elections lists four Democratic-held and four Republican seats as Likely, Tilt/Lean, or Toss-Up.

GOVERNORS

Six of the 36 states with gubernatorial elections have open seats. The current outlook for those six vacant governors’ mansions, incumbents facing tough re-election campaigns, and other notable contests are summarized below.

• Arizona: Republican Gov. Doug Ducey is term-limited, and the race to replace him is a toss-up. On April 1, former Rep. Matt Salmon filed nearly 19,000 petition signatures supporting his candidacy, more than any other Republican. Trump-endorsed Kari Lake drew a “false” rating from fact-checkers after she claimed individuals being prosecuted for involvement in the January 6 attack on the U.S. Capitol “are being held in prison without being charged.” On the Democratic side, former Arizona Secretary of State Katie Hobbs is viewed as the frontrunner in her contest with former state legislator Aaron Lieberman and former Nogales Mayor Marco Lopez ahead of the August 2 primary.
• Arkansas: Term-limited Republican Gov. Asa Hutchinson’s departure does not put the Republican party at risk of losing the governor’s mansion. There are five Democratic candidates in the race, including former State House Majority Leader Jay Martin. On the Republican side, former White House Press Secretary Sarah Huckabee Sanders and radio personality Doc Washburn are on the May 24 primary ballot. Sanders is the daughter of former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee. This race is rated Solid Republican
• Florida: Republican Gov. Ron DeSantis is likely to hold on, but the race is worth following due to his national profile. Last week, DeSantis made waves by warning of an interstate “cold war” if Stacey Abrams is successful in her bid to become Georgia’s governor, comparing her to Castro during a press conference on infrastructure. DeSantis is setting fundraising records, with more than $100 million raised. Meanwhile, local editorial boards are warning Democrats about the risks of a crowded primary on August 23, which includes Rep. Charlie Crist, Florida Agriculture Commissioner Nikki Fried, and State Senator Annette Taddeo. The race is rated Likely Republican.
• Georgia: Trump previously endorsed former Senator David Purdue; however, he is raising doubts about Purdue’s ability to beat Republican Gov. Brian Kemp, who has a nine percent lead in the Real Clear Politics polling average. The winner of the May 24 primary will face Democratic candidate Stacey Abrams in November. According to a recent The Hill/Emerson College poll, Abrams is behind Kemp by seven points with five percent undecided and Purdue by five points with seven percent undecided. The trial for Abrams’ Fair Fight Action’s lawsuit challenging how the Georgia conducted its 2018 gubernatorial election began on April 11 and could generate headlines this spring. The race is rated a toss-up.
• Hawaii: Several Democratic candidates are vying to replace term-limited Democratic Gov. David Ige. Lt. Gov. Joshua Green leads the pack with an endorsement from Honolulu’s largest public workers union. He will face former Honolulu Mayor Kirk Caldwell in the August 13 primary. The Democratic race could get more interesting if Rep. Kai Kahele decides to jump in before the June 7 filing deadline. Despite the long shot for Republicans statewide, several are running, including Gary Cordery, Lynn Barry Mariano, Paul Morgan, BJ Penn, and Heidi Tsuneyoshi. The race is rated Solid Democratic.
• Kansas: Democratic Gov. Laura Kelly released her first television ad during Kansas University’s March Madness Final Four appearance versus Villanova on April 2. Kelly will face Republican Attorney General Derek Schmidt in November. The race is rated a toss-up.
• Massachusetts: After facing waves of criticism from Trump-aligned members of his party, Republican Gov. Charlie Baker decided against seeking a third term. The internal divisions and open seat are predicted to boost Democrats’ chances. With Trump’s endorsement, former State Rep. Geoff Diehl is the Republican frontrunner to face Democratic Attorney General Maura Healy in November. The race is rated Likely Democratic.
• Maryland: Ten Democrats are running in this open race in a state President Biden won by 33 points. Last month, former Secretary of Labor Tom Perez released an ad narrated by President Barack Obama to help him rise above the crowded field. On the Republican side, frontrunner Kelly Schulz secured Hogan’s endorsement last month. Trump weighed in with support for state legislator Daniel Cox, who led calls to impeach Republican Gov. Larry Hogan. The race is rated Lean Democratic.
• Michigan: Last week, prosecutors could not secure convictions on any of the charges against men accused of plotting to kidnap Democratic Gov. Gretchen Whitmer, who is seeking a second term. The Republican field is crowded ahead of the August 2 primary, and Trump has not endorsed a candidate despite mentioning candidate Tudor Dixon at a recent rally with several candidates. The race is rated a toss-up.
• Nebraska: Eight Republicans are running to replace term-limited Republican Gov. Pete Ricketts in the May 10 primary. Leading candidates include pig farmer and University of Nebraska regent Jim Pillen, cattle rancher and wealthy businessman Charles Herbster, State Senator Brett Lindstrom, and former State Senator Theresa Thibodeau. Pillen received Ricketts’ endorsement, while Lindstrom has the support of Omaha Mayor Jean Stothert. Herbster is hoping Trump’s endorsement will push him to the top. Two Democratic candidates are running — State Senator Carol Blood and Roy Harris. The race is rated Solid Republican.
• Nevada: Twenty-one candidates are officially running to replace Democratic Gov. Steve Sisolak following the March 18 filing deadline. Clark County Sherriff Joe Lombardo leads the crowded Republican field, which includes former Senator Dean Heller. Lombardo and Heller outpolled and tied with Sisolak, respectively, in a Suffolk University/Reno Gazette Journal poll released this week. Sisolak faces a long-shot primary challenge from 72-year-old Tom Collins, a well-known political character. The race is rated a toss-up.
• New Hampshire: As Republican Gov. Chris Sununu seeks re-election, a second Democrat may join State Senator Tom Sherman in the primary. Former Stonyfield Farm CEO Gary Hirschberg registered a political committee last week, allowing him to fundraise for a potential governor bid. The race is rated Solid Republican.
• Ohio: Republican Gov. Mike DeWine faces three GOP opponents ahead of the May 3 primary. Candidate Joe Blystone was ordered to return $100,000 of campaign contributions after not properly documenting donor information. Former mayors Nan Whaley and John Cranley will face off for the Democratic nomination. The race is rated Likely Republican.
• Oklahoma: Republican Gov. Kevin Stitt is running for re-election, yet the list of GOP candidates challenging him in the June 28 primary continues to grow, most recently with Oklahoma’s Department of Veterans Affairs Director Joel Kinstel announcing his bid. Kinstel is a self-proclaimed “Ronald Reagan conservative,” giving voters an alternative to Stitt’s Trump-endorsed campaign. The race is rated Solid Republican.
• Oregon: Seventeen Democrats and 19 Republicans are running in the May 17 primary to replace term-limited Democratic Gov. Kate Brown. Former Democratic State Senator Betsy Johnson left the party to run as an unaffiliated candidate in November and recently received a $750,000 donation from Nike co-founder Phil Knight, bringing his total contribution to $1 million. If her run outside the party structure works, she would be the first unaffiliated governor in nearly a century. The race is rated Likely Democratic.
• Pennsylvania: Democratic Attorney General Josh Shapiro is running unopposed to replace term-limited Democratic Gov. Tom Wolf and raised $4.53 million in Q1. Former Rep. Lou Barletta and State Senator Doug Mastriano are leading a crowded Republican field. Barletta has the endorsement of former Trump advisor Steve Bannon and 40 local officials, and Mastriano has the support of retired Army Lt. Gen. Michael Flynn. Trump has yet to weigh in, though he ruled out endorsing former U.S. attorney Bill McSwain. The race is rated a toss-up.
• Texas: According to a mid-March poll by The Texas Lyceum, Democratic nominee Beto O’Rourke is only two points behind Republican incumbent Gov. Greg Abbott, with 18 percent undecided. The race is rated a toss-up.
• Wisconsin: Democratic Gov. Tony Evers is running for re-election against five Republican candidates. The Wisconsin GOP convention will take place in May. There are talks of getting rid of the party’s endorsement process, which unlocks additional funding and other party resources for the primary candidate receiving support from at least 60 percent of delegates. The race is considered a toss-up.

RATINGS

Cook Political Report lists six Democratic-held seats as Lean Democratic or Toss-Up compared to two Republican-held seats as Toss-Up and two Republican-held open seats rated as Likely or Lean Democratic. Inside Elections counts six Democratic-held seats and four Republican-held seats as competitive with either Toss-up, Tilt, or Lean ratings, with the open Republican seats in Maryland and Massachusetts in the Lean Democratic column. Click to enlarge each chart.