With 225 Days until Election Day 2024, welcome to the third edition of Invariant’s Election Update.
Election at a Glance
Presidential: The primary is now effectively over. President Joe Biden and former President Donald J. Trump have secured enough delegates to clinch their respective party’s nominations. The 2024 general election is underway in a rematch that is leaving some voters feeling dissatisfied and in disbelief. With the top of the ticket set, this month’s update will focus on how the campaigns will work to win over voters on their number one priority: strengthening the economy.
Senate: Two major announcements by sitting senators impacted Republican hopes to retake the Senate as well as the institution itself: (1) Minority Leader Mitch McConnell’s (R-KY) announcement that he will step down from his leadership role after the election may further decrease the power of the Senate Republicans’ establishment wing; and (2) Sen. Kyrsten Sinema’s (I-AZ) decision not to run for re-election adds to the list of centrist, dealmaking members who will not return to the chamber next year. Meanwhile, Senate primary season kicked off with a handful of contests over the last month.
House: How House Democrats and Republicans address their respective party’s weaknesses will play a big role in who controls the House in 2025. House Democrats are going into the election divided on how to communicate about the economy at a time when most voters are dissatisfied with it. House Republicans are struggling with proving their ability to govern with their razor-thin majority in a Congress defined by Republican infighting and few legislative wins. The House GOP majority is now down to 218–213 following Rep. Ken Buck’s (R-CO) resignation last week and will be 217–213 when Rep. Mike Gallagher (R-WI) steps down on April 19.
Governors: Eight states have open races for governor, setting up several highly competitive primaries that will provide insights into public sentiments about the presidential election and how candidates plan to address national issues including the economy, immigration and the border, and abortion.
Presidential
On March 12, Biden and Trump officially secured enough delegates to clinch their parties’ respective nominations, 240 days prior to Election Day. That makes the 2024 presidential election the longest general election in American history. As the 2020 rematch officially begins, key issues are coming into focus, with the state of the economy topping the list. President Biden used his State of the Union address earlier this month to argue that his legislative wins during the 117th Congress helped make the U.S. economy the strongest in the world. Biden is also directly addressing concerns about his age to convince voters he has the stamina to lead the country for another four years. However, many voters maintain negative perceptions about the economy, and Republicans’ consistent polling advantage on economic issues may be a decisive factor in November.
Déjà Vu
After losing every state primary and caucus outside of the District of Columbia and Vermont, former Ambassador to the United Nations Nikki Haley dropped out of the race. Haley said that it is up to Trump to win over her supporters in the general election rematch with Biden. State-by-state results added more decisive victories for Trump, but showed a continued weakness for him among moderate, independent, college-educated, and suburban voters. On Super Tuesday, Trump’s support was weaker in the North Carolina suburbs of Raleigh, Durham, and Charlotte, compared to more rural areas. Nonetheless, Trump can now fully turn his campaign’s focus to the general election, winning over key swing state voters, and consolidating support among Haley supporters. Recent polling bodes well for Trump, with a New York Times/Siena College poll showing that voters hold more favorable views of Trump’s policies than Biden’s, and most national polls showing Trump with a lead over Biden. Despite refusing to appear alongside his primary challengers, Trump said he is willing to debate Biden “any day, any time.”
Scared of Commitment?
Biden’s decisive victories on Super Tuesday came with a concerning asterisk. Over 100,000 voters in Michigan, 88,000 in North Carolina, 58,000 in Massachusetts, 50,000 in Colorado, and 45,000 in Minnesota voted “Uncommitted,” “No Preference,” or “Noncommitted Delegate” in their respective primary contests, a nod to concerns about Biden’s age and his support of Israel in its ongoing war with Hamas. In swing states such as Michigan, which former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton lost by a few thousand votes in 2016, Biden cannot afford to lose the support of the state’s large Arab American and Muslim communities.
Undecided voters are also considering several potential third-party candidates, including Robert F. Kennedy, Jr., Jill Stein, and Cornel West. Together, these candidates are earning support, on average, from over 15 percent of respondents in early polls, signaling voters’ dissatisfaction with both Biden and Trump. No Labels is also capitalizing on this ambivalence toward the two major party candidates and voted on March 8 to put forth their own presidential “unity ticket,” with yet-to-be-announced candidates.
It’s (Still) the Economy, Stupid
President Biden used this year’s State of the Union address to sell his economic agenda and reassure voters that lowering costs for families will remain a top priority. While Biden has plenty of positive economic statistics to point to, his message of an improving economy is not resonating with all voters. Seventy-four percent of Americans say the economy is their top concern, and 63 percent report that recent price increases caused financial hardship for their families. A February 28 — March 1 CBS News/YouGov poll showed that 65 percent of registered voters viewed the economy as “good” under Trump, compared to 38 percent today. Respondents also favored Trump over Biden by over 20 points when asked in January which candidate would be better suited to handle the economy.
The economy is performing well by nearly every traditional metric used to measure it: unemployment remains below four percent; the stock market is at record highs; GDP is exceeding expectations; wages are increasing; the economy continues to add jobs; and inflation is down from its 2022 peak. However, Americans remain concerned about the future of the economy, persistently high housing costs, and the cost of staples like travel and food. And many voters believe that Biden’s policies will cause further price increases. The ongoing housing affordability crisis — due in part to interest rates remaining at 23-year highs — may be relieved in the coming months as the Federal Reserve plans three rate cuts before the end of the year. Election watchers will continue to track the state of the economy as well as voters’ perceptions about the economy, as strong economic indicators historically correlate to incumbent presidents winning re-election.
Fundraising
Biden’s campaign and the Democratic National Committee reported $97.5 million cash on hand as of the end of February, which is more than double the $44.8 million on hand between Trump’s campaign and the Republican National Committee. The Biden campaign also reported raising $10 million in the 24 hours after the President’s State of the Union address and announced an upcoming $30 million ad buy and corresponding campaign stops in battleground states.
Senate
The Senate primary season officially kicked off this month with contests in Texas, California, and Ohio. These primaries provide a glimpse into how national issues such as the economy will play in the battle over control of the Senate.
A pair of major announcements this month will have implications for Republicans hoping to take back the Senate, as well as for the institution itself. Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) announced he will step down as the longest-serving leader in the Senate’s history, and Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (I-AZ) confirmed she will not seek re-election. While he intends to serve out his term, which ends in January 2027, McConnell’s departure from leadership may further the decline of the establishment wing of the conference. It is also unclear how McConnell’s retirement will impact Republican fundraising efforts as he is Senate Republicans’ most prolific fundraiser. McConnell has raised more than $1.6 billion since 2015. Meanwhile, Sinema’s decision to join Sen. Joe Manchin (D-WV) and other centrists in leaving the Senate could undermine the upper chamber’s ability to reach bipartisan consensus from the middle.
Primary Recap
California (Solid Democrat): Rep. Adam Schiff (D-CA) and former professional baseball player Steve Garvey (R) finished first and second, respectively, in California’s crowded open primary, avoiding a single-party ballot in November’s general election. While post-primary polling is still sparse, Schiff is a heavy favorite in a state where the Democratic Party has a two-to-one voter registration advantage. While Garvey will look for an upset victory, he faces a tall task, as a Republican has not won election to the U.S. Senate in the Golden State in nearly 40 years.
Ohio (Toss-Up): Trump-endorsed Bernie Moreno secured victory in Ohio’s GOP primary. Moreno held off a challenge from state senator Matt Dolan, who was backed by many in the Ohio GOP establishment including Governor Mike DeWine, former Sen. Rob Portman (R-OH), and the influential Haslam family, who own Cleveland’s professional football and baseball teams. Moreno will now look to leverage his ties to Trump against longtime Democratic incumbent and primary winner Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-OH) in what could be the deciding battle for the Senate majority. Brown decisively won his last two elections, but this race is expected to be his toughest yet. Brown currently leads Moreno by an average of four points in early polling in a state that has drifted toward Republican candidates in recent election cycles.
Texas (Likely Republican): Rep. Colin Allred (D-TX) emerged victorious in Texas’ Super Tuesday primary to challenge incumbent Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX) in the November general election. Allred, a former professional football player and Obama Administration official, currently represents northeast Dallas and its suburbs in the House. Cruz is campaigning to win a third consecutive term. He narrowly defeated former Rep. Beto O’Rourke (D-TX) in 2018. A Democrat has not won a U.S. Senate seat in Texas since 1988 but changing demographics will make this one of the only key races Republicans must defend in 2024.
Race Spotlights
Arizona (Toss-Up): Incumbent Sen. Kyrsten Sinema’s (I-AZ) announcement that she will not run for re-election reshapes the race in Arizona and could change how the Senate operates in the next Congress. Her decision guarantees a one-on-one contest between Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-AZ) and his Republican challenger, Trump-endorsed Kari Lake, who holds a sizeable lead for the Republican nomination over the current Pinal County Sheriff Mark Lamb. With Gallego’s history in the Progressive Caucus and Lake’s alignment with Trump, it will be crucial for both candidates to balance turning out their base with winning over moderates. In 2020, Biden won Arizona by a 0.4 percent margin, while Sen. Mark Kelly (D-AZ) won by 4.9 percent against Trump-aligned Republican challenger Blake Masters in 2022. Although the Senate primary in Arizona is still over five months away, the general election matchup between Gallego and Lake is already underway.
Maryland (Likely Democrat): In a surprise announcement, former Maryland Governor Larry Hogan (R-MD) declared his candidacy for retiring Sen. Ben Cardin’s (D-MD) seat, a decision that could broaden the map for Republicans. Hogan remains popular in the state, and he is already heavily favored to win the GOP primary. If the moderate Republican secures the nomination, his Democratic opponent will likely attack his record as governor, including vetoing legislation that proposed expanding abortion access and paid family leave. Meanwhile, in the Democratic primary race, current Rep. David Trone (D-MD) leads in the polls over Prince George’s County Executive Angela Alsobrooks. Trone, who is self-funding his campaign, holds endorsements from over 60 of his colleagues in the U.S. House of Representatives, including House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-NY) and Minority Whip Katherine Clark (D-MA). Alsobrooks, however, has the endorsement of the Congressional Black Caucus PAC and strong support from Maryland officials at the local, state, and federal levels, including Governor Wes Moore, Rep. Steny Hoyer (D-MD), and Sen. Chris Van Hollen (D-MD). Rep. Dutch Ruppersberger (D-MD) is the only member of the congressional delegation to endorse Trone.
Michigan (Lean Democrat): Sen. Debbie Stabenow’s (D-MI) retirement makes this swing state seat more competitive. Current frontrunner Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D-MI) leads in the polls and raised over $11 million in 2023. Considered to be an up-and-coming moderate member of the party, Slotkin seeks to succeed Stabenow in a state that was key to Trump’s victory in 2016 but has trended blue ever since. In the Republican primary, former Rep. Justin Amash (R-MI), who left the party in 2019 and was the only non-Democrat to vote in favor of Trump’s first impeachment, is running against fellow former House members Mike Rogers (R-MI) and Peter Meijer (R-MI). Rogers, a former House Intelligence Committee chair, recently secured Trump’s endorsement, and Meijer, one of just 10 Republicans who voted in favor of Trump’s second impeachment, lost his primary in 2022. In the background, the state’s Republican party faces internal upheaval, culminating in the removal of the party’s chair this past January. This crowded primary is set for August 6.
Montana (Toss-Up): The Montana Senate race has narrowed to two: incumbent Sen. Jon Tester (D-MT) and ex-Navy SEAL Tim Sheehy (R) will face off in November, with Rep. Matt Rosendale (R-MT) suspending his bid one week after formally announcing his campaign in response to Trump’s endorsement of Sheehy. Rosendale later announced that he will not seek re-election in the House.
New Jersey (Likely/Solid Democrat): Indicted Sen. Bob Menendez (D-NJ) announced that he will not run for re-election as a Democrat this year, while keeping the door open to a run as an Independent in the fall. Menendez is currently indicted on 16 federal bribery and corruption charges and faces mounting bipartisan pressure to resign. Menendez, who got his start in politics 50 years ago as an anti-corruption mayor, was acquitted of similar charges four years ago. Rep. Andy Kim (D-NJ) is now the top contender in the race after First Lady of New Jersey Tammy Murphy announced she dropped out.
Pennsylvania (Lean Democrat): With the April 23 primary less than one month away, it is all but certain that incumbent Sen. Bob Casey (D-PA) will face Republican challenger David McCormick, the current GOP frontrunner. McCormick, a former hedge fund CEO, is running for the second time after narrowly losing to Trump-endorsed Mehmet Oz in the 2022 primary. Casey remains the favorite with over $18 million raised and a more than seven-point polling advantage over McCormick. With funding from the National Republican Senate Committee (NRSC) and McCormick’s own fortune, this will surely be an expensive race. Casey will likely benefit from President Biden, who won the state in 2020 by a razor-thin margin, spending a significant amount of time and money in this crucial battleground state.
West Virginia (Solid Republican): After announcing he would not run for re-election and then ruling out a run for President as an Independent, rumors began circulating this month that retiring Sen. Joe Manchin (D-WV) may be reconsidering running for re-election — this time as an Independent. While Manchin says he is not leaning toward another run, he has not entirely shut the door, especially with former coal executive Don Blankenship now running as a Democrat. Blankenship, who spent a year in prison for his role in a deadly mining accident, ran against Manchin in 2018 as a third-party candidate after coming in third during the Republican primary. West Virginia Governor Jim Justice (R) continues to hold a sizable lead in a theoretical match up with Manchin. The Governor’s chances would also benefit from having Trump, who won the state in 2020 by nearly 39 points, at the top of the ticket.
Fundraising
The NRSC raised $13.1 million in February and ended the month with $24.8 million cash on hand on hand. The DSCC raised $9.5 million in February and has $31.9 million on hand.
House of Representatives
The ability to successfully message on economic issues helped Republicans take back control of the House of Representatives in 2022. With persistent concerns about the state of the economy under Biden, Republicans are continuing this strategy heading into November. The National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC) is already running ads seeking to link vulnerable House Democrats to the Biden-Harris Administration’s economic agenda.
House Democrats are going into the 2024 election divided over how to communicate about the economy at a time when most voters remain dissatisfied. Issue-focused advocacy groups touting efforts to reduce prescription drug and other healthcare costs will bolster House Democrats’ case to voters. The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) will seek to take advantage of ongoing dysfunction in the Republican-controlled House by raising questions about Republicans’ ability to govern and their ties to Trump.
Primary Recaps
While House races drew less attention than the presidential contests, numerous noteworthy House results from Super Tuesday and subsequent primaries provide insights heading into November.
AL-01 (Solid Republican): In the nation’s only Member vs. Member primary, Rep. Barry Moore (R-AL) narrowly defeated Rep. Jerry Carl (R-AL) in Alabama’s redrawn first district. While both candidates ran campaigns centered on their conservative bona fides in the deeply red district, Moore’s win was a victory for the House Freedom Caucus, of which he is a member.
AL-02 (Likely Democrat): The Democratic primary in Alabama’s newly drawn second district is heading to a runoff. Democrats Shomari Figures, a White House aide under President Obama, and State House Minority Leader Anthony Daniels will compete in an April 16 runoff to determine the Democratic nominee in the majority-Black district.
AR-03 (Solid Republican): Rep. Steve Womack (R-AR) defeated state senator Clint Penzo in the Republican primary for Arkansas’ third congressional district. Penzo criticized Womack for opposing Rep. Jim Jordan’s (R-OH) short-lived bid for the speakership, referring to him as a Republican-in-name-only (RINO) in campaign literature. Though Womack had the support of Arkansas Gov. Sarah Huckabee Sanders and the National Right to Life Committee and heavily outraised Penzo, his eight-point victory could be a warning sign for more moderate, longer-tenured Republicans in future primaries.
CA-20 (Solid Republican): California state legislator Vince Fong (R) fell short of securing more than 50 percent of the vote in the special election for the remainder of former Speaker Kevin McCarthy’s (R-CA) term. With a slim 218–213 majority in the House, GOP leadership hoped Fong would avoid an unwanted runoff and be sworn in to bolster their vote margin. In the upcoming May 21 runoff, Fong will likely face Tulare County Sheriff Mike Boudreaux (R-CA). Although the second spot on the ballot is too close to call as of March 22, public school teacher Marisa Wood (D-CA) is currently trailing Boudreaux. In the primary held for this seat in the 119th Congress, Bordeaux secured a spot on the ballot on Super Tuesday and will run against Fong in the general election in November.
IL-07 (Solid Democrat): First elected in 1996, 82-year-old Rep. Danny Davis (D-IL) faced his second consecutive serious primary challenge on March 19. Not only did he beat back two challengers, but he improved on his 2022 performance. Community organizer Kina Collins and Chicago City Treasurer Melissa Conyears-Ervin questioned Davis’s decision to run for re-election given his age. Davis responded by highlighting his seniority in Congress as an asset and noting his subcommittee chairmanship on the powerful House Ways and Means Committee.
IL-12 (Solid Republican): Rep. Mike Bost (R-IL) narrowly defeated former state senator and Republican nominee for Governor Darren Bailey in this deep-red downstate district. Bost is not the typical Republican politician to face a primary challenge from his right, given that he had the support of Trump and is not known as a moderate in Congress. Still, Bailey gained the support of Reps. Mary Miller (R-IL) and Matt Gaetz (R-FL) and tried to paint Bost as a career politician.
NC-06 (Solid Republican): The Piedmont Triad sixth district avoided an expected runoff between Trump-endorsed Addison McDowell and former Rep. Mark Walker (R-NC), with Walker announcing on March 13 that he would drop out of the race to serve as a liaison to faith groups and minority communities for the Trump campaign. Current Rep. Kathy Manning (D-NC) decided against running for re-election after district lines shifted in favor of Republicans.
NC-08 (Solid Republican): Mark Harris — whose 2018 win in North Carolina’s ninth district was never certified after an illegal ballot harvesting operation by his campaign led the state to order a new election — avoided a runoff and will be the next congressman from North Carolina’s deep-red eighth district. Harris will replace Rep. Dan Bishop (R-NC), who is running against fellow departing House member Jeff Jackson (D-NC) to serve as Attorney General of North Carolina.
NC-14 (Solid Republican): State House Speaker Tim Moore easily won the Republican primary for North Carolina’s 14th district, which stretches from the Charlotte suburbs to more rural turf in the Western Piedmont. Moore is running to replace Rep. Jeff Jackson (D-NC), who is leaving Congress after a single term because his district map shifted to favor Republicans.
OH-02 (Solid Republican): Clermont County businessman David Taylor (R) won a crowded open-seat primary to replace Rep. Brad Wenstrup (R-OH). Taylor beat ten other candidates in this southern Ohio district. Taylor pledged to join the House Freedom Caucus if elected to Congress.
OH-06 (Solid Republican): State senator Michael Rulli (R) defeated state representative Reggie Stoltzfus (R) in this special election primary for the seat vacated by former Rep. Bill Johnson (R-OH). Rulli was endorsed by the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, while Stoltzfus touted his support from former National Security Advisor Michael Flynn. Rulli is heavily favored to win the June 11 special election and November general election.
OH-09 (Lean Democrat/Toss-Up): Rep. Marcy Kaptur (D-OH), the longest-serving congresswoman in U.S. history, found herself in a competitive district for the first time in decades after Ohio’s 2022 redistricting. As the northwest portion of Ohio shifted right in the Trump era, some Republicans expected 2022 to be their chance to oust the longtime incumbent. The GOP ran into issues when reports alleged that their nominee, J.R. Majewski, falsified his service record and lied about serving in Afghanistan. In a district that Trump won in 2020, Kaptur coasted to victory by 13 points in 2022. Republicans, including Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) and Trump, are supporting state representative Derek Merrin, who cruised to victory in the primary and is expected to make for a competitive race in November.
OH-13 (Lean Democrat/Toss-Up): Former state senator Kevin Coughlin defeated Hudson City Councilman Chris Banweg for the Republican nomination to take on freshman Democratic Rep. Emilia Sykes (D-OH) in this Akron-based seat, which has trended right in recent years.
TX-18 (Solid Democrat): Rep. Sheila Jackson Lee (D-TX), who came off a landslide loss in her run for mayor of Houston and faced scrutiny for her management of congressional staff, beat back two primary challengers and will serve her 16th term in Congress come next year. In the fourth quarter of 2023, Jackson Lee’s primary challenger outraised her ten to one, proving that strong primary fundraising does not always equate to electoral success.
TX-23 (Solid Republican): Rep. Tony Gonzales (R-TX) will head to a runoff after his support for a post-Uvalde gun safety bill generated a conservative challenger. The runoff between Gonzales and Brandon Herrera, a “gunfluencer” on YouTube, will take place on May 28.
General Election Spotlights
With Super Tuesday in the rearview mirror, the next couple of months are a quieter stage for the House primary election calendar before things pick up again in May. In districts with settled primaries, Democratic and Republican party committees are focused on the general election.
Recently, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) announced its first slate of candidates for its “Red to Blue” program, which focuses on providing campaign resources to candidates running in Republican-held seats. As expected, the DCCC is backing candidates in districts Biden won in 2020–10 of the 17 selected Red-to-Blue candidates fit that profile.
On the Republican side, Speaker Johnson endorsed a candidate list as part of his “Speaker’s Slate.” The list includes challengers in four of the five districts Trump won in 2020 that Democrats now hold. Notably, both lists feature failed candidates from 2022 who are trying again in 2024.
Described below are the general election rematches that came down to the wire in 2022 and will play a pivotal role in deciding the House majority for the 119th Congress:
CA-13 (Toss-Up): In 2022, Rep. John Duarte (R-CA) defeated Democratic challenger Adam Gray by only 564 votes in the second-closest House race in the nation. With Gray again in the race, Democrats and the DCCC view this Central Valley seat, which Biden won by 11 points in 2020, as a key potential flip. Despite holding a current 13-point voter registration advantage, Democrats found it challenging to turn out the district’s large Latino population (nearly two-thirds of the electorate) in 2022.
CA-41 (Lean Republican/Toss-Up): After serving 30 years in the House, Rep. Ken Calvert (R-CA) is the longest-serving Republican in the California delegation and a senior appropriator. While Calvert is a strong incumbent, California’s 2020 redistricting produced a district with Republicans and Democrats essentially tied in voter registration. In 2022, Calvert beat Democratic challenger Will Rollins by four points. Rollins, a former counterterrorism and public corruption federal prosecutor, is running again. As one of the country’s biggest overperformers in 2022, Rollins (and the DCCC) want to build on their progress in the district. Undecided voters will likely determine this race.
CT-05 (Lean Democrat): Connecticut has not had a Republican Member of Congress since former Rep. Chris Shays (R-CT) lost re-election in 2008, but 2024 provides an opportunity for the GOP to break its cold streak. George Logan, a former state senator who ran in 2022, is running again against three-term incumbent Rep. Jahana Hayes (D-CT). While President Biden won the district by nearly 11 points in 2020, Hayes won by less than 2,000 votes in 2022. Speaker Johnson and the NRCC are targeting Connecticut’s fifth district as one of their best pickup opportunities, though Hayes has an advantage in cash on hand.
NM-02 (Toss-Up): The second district of New Mexico is a microcosm of the current urban-rural political divide across most of the country. The seat is geographically diverse and includes parts of Albuquerque and southeastern New Mexico. In 2022, Rep. Gabe Vasquez (D-NM) narrowly prevailed over former Rep. Yvette Herrell (R-NM) by approximately 1,300 votes. Their 2024 rematch will likely be another close race. In a September 2023 poll, Herrell led Vasquez 46 percent to 45 percent. The NRCC will need high turnout in rural areas and low enthusiasm in Albuquerque and Las Cruces for Herrell to win.
Key Map Changes
Barring additional legal action, the 2024 congressional maps are finalized. The Wisconsin Supreme Court announced on March 1 that it would not hear a challenge to the state’s congressional map. The decision was a blow to Democrats, who argued the map unfairly favored Republicans. Wisconsin will move ahead with its current congressional map for the 2024 cycle with six Republican-leaning seats and two Democratic-leaning seats.
In New York, Governor Kathy Hochul (D-NY) signed the state’s new congressional maps into law on February 28 after two years of infighting and millions of dollars spent. After the state’s Independent Redistricting Commission’s (IRC) proposed maps were struck down on February 26, Democrats in the state legislature only slightly tweaked the IRC maps in an effort to deter any further court challenges. The new lines shift two key swing districts to better favor Democrats — NY-22, currently held by Rep. Brandon Williams (R-NY), and NY-03, recently won by Rep. Tom Suozzi (D-NY) — but change little in the other 24 districts. With control of the House likely coming down to a handful of seats, New York Democrats’ decision to take a middle-road approach and retain several highly competitive districts could end up deciding the majority.
Fundraising
The NRCC raised $8.2 million in February and ended the month with $45.2 million cash on hand. Speaker Johnson transferred $1.5 million to the NRCC in early March, bringing his total transferred funds to $6.5 million since becoming speaker in late October. The NRCC still lags behind the DCCC, which raised $14.5 million in February and has $59.2 million on hand.
Governors
The first of many open-seat gubernatorial primaries took place in North Carolina on Super Tuesday. Although most of the gubernatorial races are rated solidly Democratic or Republican, there are eight states with open races, setting up several highly competitive primaries. In particular, the Republican gubernatorial primaries could provide insight into public sentiment about the presidential election. It will be important to watch how Trump-endorsed candidates fare against establishment Republicans and how Republicans message on national issues such as the economy, immigration and the border, and abortion.
As observers wait for Vermont Governor Phil Scott (R) to announce whether he will retire, New Hampshire and North Carolina are the two races with the greatest opportunity for party turnover in the governor’s mansions. Protecting reproductive rights will be a major rallying cry for Democrats to turn out voters in these tight races, particularly after the recent Alabama Supreme Court ruling on in vitro fertilization (IVF) puts a spotlight on Republican gubernatorial candidates’ records on abortion.
Race Spotlights
Indiana (Solid Republican): The next gubernatorial primary will be on May 7 in Indiana. The Republican primary to replace term-limited Governor Eric Holcomb (R) is anticipated to be the most expensive gubernatorial primary in the state’s history. The economy will be a core issue with Trump-endorsed Sen. Mike Braun’s (R-IN) campaign touting his experience as a business owner and employer. Lieutenant Governor Suzanne Crouch is running on a plan to eliminate the state income tax, and Republican candidates Brad Chambers and Eric Doden are touting their leadership in the Indiana Economic Development Corporation.
North Carolina (Lean Democrat/Toss-Up): The race to replace term-limited Democratic Gov. Roy Cooper is down to Trump-endorsed Lieutenant Governor Mark Robinson (R) and Cooper-endorsed Attorney General Josh Stein (D). The candidates easily won their primaries, with 66 percent and 70 percent of the vote, respectively. Some mainstream Republicans expressed concerns with Robinson’s prospects in the general election due to his past controversial statements about women, Muslims, the Holocaust, and the LGBTQ community. Divisive topics, including immigration and reproductive rights, will likely be central issues in this Toss-Up race. Both Robinson and Stein will look to portray each other as politically extreme, and turnout in the presidential race at the top of the ticket will likely play a big role in the gubernatorial results.
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