Election Update — Issue 2

263 days until Election Day

With the first wave of congressional primaries less than a month away, both parties are focusing on pickup opportunities, protecting vulnerable incumbents, and recruiting top-tier candidates for open seats. House Republicans must defend their 45-seat majority against a crush of well-funded challengers and an unfavorable national environment, while Senate Democrats must defend 24 seats, including ten in states President Donald Trump won in 2016. In addition to the congressional races, 36 governors’ mansions are up for grabs.

As both parties seek momentum, all eyes will be on Pennsylvania’s 18th congressional district next month, with a special election to replace former Republican Representative Tim Murphy. The race is drawing national attention, including campaign stops by President Donald Trump, Vice President Mike Pence, Ivanka Trump, and others. The next couple of months will also feature special elections in Arizona, Michigan, and Ohio to fill currently vacant House seats.

Control of Congress could also be dramatically reshaped in high-profile redistricting cases. Pennsylvania’s Supreme Court ruled the current state map invalid and will be forced to draw a new, non-partisan map after the Republican-controlled state legislature and Democratic Governor Tom Wolf failed to reach a compromise before the court-appointed deadline. The map will be in place before the state’s primary elections in May. The U.S. Supreme Court will also rule on two cases challenging gerrymandering in Maryland and Wisconsin, potentially impacting the congressional districts in those states, as well as in North Carolina, where the court issued a stay for a lower court’s ruling, which required state lawmakers to redraw the congressional map by January 24.

With 263 days to go until Election Day, below is our update with a list of key dates and a state of play for House, Senate, and gubernatorial races.

KEY DATES

HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES

Republicans hold a 45-seat majority, with four vacancies due to resignations: (1) PA-18 (Murphy); (2) MI-13 (Conyers); (3) AZ-08 (Franks); and (4) OH-12 (Tiberi). Democrats must net at least 24 seats to flip control of the House.

More than 40 Republican incumbents trail their Democratic challengers in fourth-quarter fundraising, and nine of those were outraised by more than one challenger. Four Democratic incumbents trail their challengers across a similar time period.

Incumbents continue to head for the exits on both sides of the aisle. Democratic Representative Rick Nolan will retire from the House for a second time after first retiring in 1981. Meanwhile, committee chairmen Rodney Frelinghuysen (Appropriations) and Trey Gowdy (Oversight) will join eight other chairmen in retiring at the end of the 115th Congress.

NEWS FROM THE FRONTLINES

• AZ-08: 13 Republicans and two Democrats are running to fill former Republican Representative Trent Franks’ vacant seat. The primary election is scheduled for February 27 and is considered a safe Republican seat. Republican candidates include former State Senators Debbie Lesko and Steve Montenegro, who is endorsed by Senator Ted Cruz, Franks, and Rick Santorum. Democratic candidates include Brianna Westbrook and Dr. Hiral Tipirneni, whose war chest is more than double that of her nearest competitor.
• OH-12: Twenty-two people filed petitions to fill former Republican Representative Pat Tiberi’s vacated congressional seat, including eight Democrats, 12 Republicans, one Green Party member, and one Independent. Franklin County Recorder Danny O’Connor declared his candidacy on January 30 and is expected to be the Democratic frontrunner. State Senators Kevin Bacon and Troy Balderson, as well as Delaware County prosecutor Carol O’Brien, are some of the candidates in the Republican field. The special primary election date coincides with the regular primary election date, but the special general election is scheduled for August 7.
• PA-18: The Democratic and Republican parties selected nominees through conventions. Vice President Mike Pence campaigned for state Representative Rick Saccone earlier in February, and President Trump is also expected to campaign for Saccone, holding a fundraiser on February 21. Former Vice President Joe Biden is expected to campaign for former federal prosecutor Conor Lamb ahead of the special election on March 13. Early polling by Monmouth University, DFM Research, and Gravis Marketing all have Saccone leading over Lamb.
• MN-08: Democratic Representative Rick Nolan recently announced he will not seek re-election in 2018, changing the political landscape of this race, which was originally favored for Democrats but is now expected to be a toss-up. In 2016, Trump won 54 percent of the vote in the district, and Nolan won his election by only 1.4 percent of the vote. Since Nolan’s announcement, the field of candidates is expected to grow, with North Branch Mayor Kirsten Kennedy announcing her bid on the Democratic side two days after his announcement.
• AL-02: Incumbent Republican Representative Martha Roby is again facing former Montgomery Mayor Bobby Bright, but this time on the Republican ballot. In 2010, Roby successfully challenged then-Democratic incumbent Bright for the AL-02 seat. There are currently five bids on the Republican side and two Democratic candidates, but Roby is outraising her opponents by a considerable margin.
• CA-10: Democratic candidate Michael Eggman is making his third run against incumbent Republican Representative Jeff Denham, after losing to Denham in 2016 and 2014. There are two independents and six other Democrats running, including engineer TJ Cox and investor Josh Harder, who are both well-funded. The DCCC is targeting the district and looking to flip this seat in 2018. With the top-two jungle primary system in California and the number of Democratic candidates in the field, the vote could split, posing a challenge in getting a Democrat on the ballot for the general election.
• CA-49: Retiring Republican Representative Darrell Issa and Representative Mimi Walters both endorsed former state assembly member Diane Harkey to fill Issa’s seat. Currently, the Democratic candidates are outraising the Republican candidates, with Democrat Sara Jacobs raising the most at $1.3 million, contributing $1.1 million of her own funds.
• NV-04: Democratic Representative Ruben Kihuen is not seeking reelection in 2018. Former Democratic Representative Steven Horsford is trying to reclaim his old seat after losing in 2014 to former Republican Representative Cresent Hardy, who is also trying to win back the seat in 2018. Other candidates include Democratic State Senator Patricia Spearman and Republican Jeff Miller.
• MI-13: Democratic candidate John Conyers III is running to replace his father, former Democratic Representative John Conyers. Conyers III is running against his cousin and Democratic State Senator Ian Conyers. Six other Democrats are also running, and no Republican candidates have formally declared yet. The special election dates will coincide with the regular 2018 election dates.

POLLING PROJECTIONS

The Cook Political Report lists 67 Republican-held seats as Likely, Lean, or Toss-up as opposed to 25 Democratic-held seats. Similarly, Inside Elections lists 54 Republican-held seats up for grabs as opposed to 13 Democratic-held seats.

SENATE

Senate Republicans continue to zero in on the 10 Senate Democrats who are up for re-election in states President Donald Trump won in 2016 as Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) seeks to expand his 51-to-49 majority.

However, McConnell and National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC) Chairman Cory Gardner (R-CO) must navigate tricky primaries ahead of the November election. In Arizona, Representative Martha McSally comes with a strong record but faces challenges from the right in State Senator Kelli Ward and former Sherriff Joe Arpaio. Meanwhile, Senator Dean Heller (R-NV) faces perennial candidate Danny Tarkanian, who is hoping to capitalize on conservative opposition to Heller. In West Virginia, Senator Joe Manchin (D) affirmed he will seek re-election. Finally, Representatives Luke Messer (R-IN) and Todd Rokita (R-IN) are already attacking each other in the primary to face first-term incumbent Senator Joe Donnelly (D-IN).

NEWS FROM THE FRONTLINES

• Arizona: Republican Representative Martha McSally formally kicked off her bid to replace retiring Senator Jeff Flake in one of the most competitive races this cycle. McSally will face off against controversial former sheriff Joe Arpaio as well as State Senator Kelli Ward, who lost in the 2016 primary to Senator John McCain. On the Democratic side, the field is cleared for Representative Kyrsten Sinema, who holds a sizable $5.1 million cash on hand in her warchest.
• Florida: Republican Governor Rick Scott continues to make moves toward challenging Democratic Senator Bill Nelson, including attendance at megadonor Sheldon Adelson’s annual retreat. Scott, who is term limited as governor, plans to make a final decision after the state legislative session wraps up on March 9.
• Ohio: After Republican State Treasurer Josh Mandel unexpectedly withdrew from the race, Representative Jim Renacci stepped into the primary. Renacci, who received backing from the state party and President Trump, faces businessman Mike Gibbons in the May 8 primary for a chance to take on Democratic Senator Sherrod Brown, who will look to hold on in a state that shifted from former President Barack Obama in 2012 to Trump in 2016.
• Minnesota: Former Republican Representative Michele Bachmann announced she would forgo a challenge to newly-appointed Democratic Senator Tina Smith, leaving State Senator Karin Housley as the leading Republican in the race. Smith will face voters in November after Governor Mark Dayton appointed her to the seat of former Democratic Senator Al Franken, who resigned from the Senate in January. The winner will serve out the remaining two years of the term.
• Missouri: Republican Attorney General Josh Hawley came under fire for comments he made regarding women’s liberation and sex trafficking. Democrats are hoping the comments affect Hawley in a state President Donald Trump won by more than 19 points. Republicans doubt his comments will have a lasting or significant impact, however. Hawley also posted low fundraising numbers, ending 2017 with $1.2 million cash on hand. He trails incumbent Senator Claire McCaskill (D-MO), who raised $2.9 million in Q4 2017 and holds over $9 million cash on hand.
• North Dakota: After heavy recruiting from McConnell and President Trump, Republican Representative Kevin Cramer will reportedly kick off his bid to challenge first-term incumbent Democratic Senator Heidi Heitkamp. Cramer initially declined to run in January. Trump won the state by 36 points in 2016, but Heitkamp remains widely popular after her narrow victory in 2012 over former Republican Representative Rick Berg.
• Pennsylvania: President Trump endorsed Republican Representative Lou Barletta in a state Trump narrowly carried in 2016. Barletta also garnered support from the state party and will face businessman Paul Addis in the May primary. Addis loaned his campaign $1.45 million in Q4 2017 and holds a slight cash on hand advantage over Barletta. The winner will face Democratic Senator Bob Casey.
• Tennessee: After announcing his retirement in the fall, Republican Senator Bob Corker may reverse course and seek reelection to his seat. Democrats recruited Governor Phil Bredesen to run for the seat, and polls indicate Bredesen could put the seat into play. However, Corker’s re-entry may not clear out top Republican challengers, including Republican Representative Marsha Blackburn, who kicked off her run after Corker’s initial decision. The Senate Conservative Fund also released polling that shows Blackburn leading Corker by a wide 26 percent to 49 percent margin in a potential primary.
• Utah: Former Massachusetts Governor and 2012 Republican presidential nominee Mitt Romney announced his run for retiring Senator Orrin Hatch’s seat. Romney, who led the 2002 Winter Olympics in Salt Lake City, cited the need for Utah values in Washington and a desire to replicate the state’s policy and economic successes at the national level. Romney established residency in the state in 2014.
• West Virginia: Republicans face a crowded primary in the hopes of taking on Democratic Senator Joe Manchin, who recently re-affirmed his plans to run for re-election in the deep red state. Republican Representative Evan Jenkins and State Attorney General Patrick Morrisey lead the pack in fundraising, but former coal executive Don Blankenship, who was indicted by a grand jury for his role in the deaths of 29 miners in 2009, is also in the race. Manchin brought in around $800,000 in Q4 2017 and has $4.7 million on hand.
• Wisconsin: Conservative outside groups already spent over $3 million in attack ads against first-term Democratic Senator Tammy Baldwin. Businessman Kevin Nicholson is the nominal front runner in the Republican primary due to support from billionaire Richard Uihlein, who is seeding a pro-Nicholson Super PAC. However, Nicholson is coming under fire for his roles with College Democrats for America in 2000 and the Minnesota Democratic-Farmer-Labor Party in 2002. Former White House Chief of Staff Reince Priebus threw his support behind State Senator Leah Vukmir, who will face Nicholson in the August primary.

POLLING PROJECTIONS

The Cook Political Report lists 13 Democratic-held seats as Likely, Lean, or Toss-up as opposed to only four Republican-held seats. Inside Politics lists 10 Democratic seats up for grabs as opposed to one Republican-held seats.

GOVERNORS

Governors’ races continue to pick up steam as campaigns head into primary season. Nearly half of the 36 races are open seats where incumbents reached term limits or decided to forgo re-election.

Democrats hope strong recruits will allow them to flip seats in purple states, such as Florida, Iowa, Maine, and Ohio, while popular first-term Republican incumbents in blue states, such as Maryland, Massachusetts, and Vermont, continue to post strong approval numbers to potentially withstand a national wave election.

NEWS FROM THE FRONTLINES

• Florida: Recent polls show former Representative Gwen Graham narrowly leading the Democratic field while State Agriculture Commissioner Adam Putnam leads his Republican rivals in the race to replace outgoing Republican Governor Rick Scott. Republican Representative Ron DeSantis, who earned President Trump’s support on social media, trails Putnam 23 percent to 27 percent.
• Iowa: Republican incumbent Kim Reynolds, who replaced former Governor Terry Branstad when he was named U.S. Ambassador to China, leads her Democratic challengers according to recent polling. State Senator Nate Boulton and businessman Fred Hubbell come closest to Reynolds, but much of the electorate remains undecided ahead of the fall elections.
• Illinois: Democratic businessman J.B. Pritzker continues to lead candidates in television advertising, spending $25.4 million so far while incumbent Republican Governor Bruce Rauner reported spending $13 million in advertising. Rauner faces a primary challenge from Republican State Representative Jeanne Ives, whose recent attack ad on Rauner is being denounced as “anti-immigrant, racist, sexist, and transphobic.” Ives says the ad reflects Rauner’s betrayal of Republican voters.
• Maine: Outgoing Republican Governor Paul LePage announced that he will not endorse any candidates ahead of the state’s primary in June but would oppose State Senate President Mike Thibodeau, a former ally with whom LePage fought over budget negotiations. EMILY’s List announced its support for Attorney General Janet Mills, who is running in the Democratic primary against several other challengers.
• Minnesota: Former Republican Governor Tim Pawlenty resigned from his position leading the Financial Services Roundtable as he considers mounting a bid to recapture his former seat. Incumbent Democratic Governor Mark Dayton is not running for re-election after several health issues. Representative Tim Walz leads the Democratic field to replace Dayton.
• Ohio: Republican Attorney General Mike DeWine leads the pack to replace outgoing Republican Governor John Kasich and secured the state committee’s endorsement. DeWine’s biggest rival, Representative Jim Renacci, dropped out of the race to instead run against Senator Sherrod Brown. On the Democratic side, former Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB) Director Richard Cordray is the frontrunner.
• Texas: Businessman Andrew White, the son of former Democratic Governor Mark White, was a surprise entrant into the primary to face first-term Republican incumbent Greg Abbott. White raised $100,000 and loaned his campaign an additional $1 million in January as he looks to rapidly build up funds to take on Abbott, who holds $43 million in his war chest. White faces former Dallas County Sheriff Lupe Valdez in the March 6 primary.

POLLING PROJECTIONS

The Cook Political Report lists 16 Republican-held seats as Likely, Lean, or Toss-up as opposed to seven Democratic-held seats. Inside Politics lists 16 Republican seats up for grabs as opposed to five Democratic-held seats.

AD OF THE MONTH

What do you do when you’re facing a perennial candidate who has run for five different political offices since 2004? You run a Groundhog Day-themed ad. Senator Dean Heller unveiled this playful attack ad, highlighting Tarkanian’s less than stellar record in campaigns.

“WAKE UP” released by Dean Heller’s campaign on February 1, 2018

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