Election Update — Issue 11

12 Days to Election Day

“Election Day” is underway in most states, with 14,081,078 votes already cast. Enthusiasm is above average among both parties, though Republicans have a nine-point edge with “high interest” in the election. Republican candidates continue to focus on issues top of mind for most voters — economics and crime — and are more trusted to handle economic issues by a nearly two-to-one margin.

Democrats are counting on the youth vote to turn out. Voter registration surpassed 2018 levels in many states, and the Youth Electoral Significance Index (YESI) ranks Georgia, Arizona, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin as the states where the youth vote will have a disproportionately high electoral impact. Young people of color will be particularly important in battleground states such as Georgia and Arizona, which feature more diverse state populations, particularly among Black, Latino, and Indigenous youth voters relative to the average youth voting population.

Momentum has shifted in the Republicans’ favor. In the latest New York Times/Siena College poll, 49 percent of likely voters said they planned to vote for a Republican for Congress compared to 45 percent voting for a Democrat, as compared to last month’s poll where Democrats held a one-point lead. More surprising is the sentiment among independent women voters who now lean Republican by an 18-point margin — a monumental 32-point shift from favoring Democrats by 14 points in September.

FiveThirtyEight moved its Senate forecast from Democrats “slightly favored” to “dead heat.” Inside Elections moved 13 House race ratings in favor of Republicans and eight in favor of Democrats, bringing its overall projection to +25 for House Republicans versus +8 in the previous forecast. Similarly, Cook Political Report moved four House race ratings in favor of Democrats and six in favor of Republicans and is now predicting 12–25 Republican pickups, up from 10–20 seats.

Candidates and congressional leadership-aligned Super PACs are racing to spend massive sums in their war chests. The Senate GOP-aligned Senate Leadership Fund (SLF) raised $111 million in the third quarter and spent $148 million — roughly double the amount as the leading Democratic Super PAC — to influence Senate races in Georgia, Nevada, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. Similarly, the House-focused Congressional Leadership Fund (CLF) spent more than $200 million to support GOP candidates.

As campaigns hit crunch time, candidates are deploying heavy hitters on the campaign trail. Former President Barack Obama is in the battleground states of Georgia, Michigan, and Wisconsin, and President Joe Biden — whose job approval rating stands at 38 percent — is in the relatively safer Democratic-leaning states of California, Colorado, and Oregon. Biden and Obama will rally in Pittsburgh and Philadelphia together on November 5. Former President Donald Trump is also on the campaign trail, using his “Save America” tour to support MAGA-aligned Republican candidates in Arizona, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Texas, and Wisconsin.

With 12 days to go until Election Day, here is Invariant’s latest outlook on the state of play in the House, Senate, and gubernatorial races to watch.

HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES

In what could be a harbinger of a predicted Republican wave, Cook Political Report moved Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) Chairman Rep. Sean Patrick Maloney’s (D-NY) race to a toss-up on Monday, citing GOP spending in the race and gubernatorial candidate Rep. Lee Zeldin’s (R) recent surge in the polls. When confronted with CBS News’ projection Republicans would pick up 12 seats, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) said Democrats feel “very confident.”

In the third quarter, the DCCC outraised the National Republican Campaign Committee (NRCC) by $56.5 million to $42.3 million. However, the NRCC has a sizable cash-on-hand advantage ($92.3 million to $59.2), and Democrats are sounding the alarm about their disadvantage in limitless outside funding through Super PACs that make it hard to compete in key battleground races. Democratic candidates put up substantial fundraising numbers, outraising their opponents in 50 of the 65 most competitive districts.

From the Frontlines

• AK-AL: At campaign events, former Governor Sarah Palin (R) and Nick Begich III (R) are performing a balancing act between campaigning against one another while telling voters to rank the other second in the state’s ranked-choice general election. At an Anchorage Chamber of Commerce forum, Begich separated himself from Palin, saying, “For most people that I speak with, they’re looking for someone who’s serious about the state of Alaska . . . People who are actually going to work hard to solve the problems of Alaskans.” Similarly, Palin criticized Begich but told supporters, “Alaska cannot afford to have the Democrat in office. We’re a deep red state.” Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R-AK) announced she would cross party lines to rank her longtime friend Rep. Mary Peltola (D) first on her ballot. This race shifted from Toss-Up to Lean Democratic.
• AZ-01: Rep. David Schweikert (R) made headlines after telling a progressive activist posing as a supporter he wants to impeach Secretary of State Antony Blinken, Secretary of Homeland Security Alejandro Mayorkas, and FBI Director Christopher Wray. Democratic challenger Jevin Hodge called Schweikert corrupt in an interview, pointing to Schweikert’s 2020 admission to 11 ethics violations and stating that “[Schweikert] can’t be trusted to manage his own money. We can’t trust him to manage our money.” The seat is rated a Toss-Up.
• AZ-02: Rep. Tom O’Halleran (D) is on the DCCC’s Red Alert list, those in “red-to-blue” districts needing financial support. O’Halleran faces Republican Eli Crane, a combat veteran, small business owner, and election denier. The seat is rated Lean Republican.
• AZ-04: Rep. Greg Stanton (D) is highlighting Republican challenger Kelly Cooper’s calls to defund the FBI and release those charged in the attack on the U.S. Capitol on January 6. Cooper and Stanton each made their best pitch on economic issues at their debate last week, with Cooper claiming Stanton voted against energy independence resulting in increased costs, while Stanton noted his support for reducing drug prices. The seat is rated Likely Democratic.
• AZ-06: Rather than debating live, Juan Ciscomani (R), a former aide to Gov. Doug Ducey (R-AZ) and Hispanic Chamber of Commerce official, and former State Sen. Kirsten Engel (D) took part in back-to-back interviews with Arizona Public Media. Ciscomani hit on inflation and described himself as “pro-life with commonsense exceptions.” Engel expressed “outrage and frustration” at the fact that her daughter is growing up with fewer abortion rights than she did. Engel also highlighted her past bipartisan work in the state legislature, plans for addressing water shortages, and the need for immigration reform. The seat is rated Lean Republican.
• CA-13: The GOP-aligned CLF is targeting this competitive district on behalf of Republican John Duarte as part of its down-the-stretch ad buys in several districts Biden won by double digits. Last week, Democrat Adam Gray was added to the DCCC’s Red Alert list. In a candidate questionnaire, Gray referred to himself as a “radical centrist,” while Duarte claims the Democratic party in Washington is “socialist-driven.” The seat is rated a Toss-Up.
• CA-22: Rep. David Valadao (R) and Assemblymember Rudy Salas (D) were scheduled to appear in a debate earlier this month before Salas withdrew, citing ads he claimed were misleading. Valadao will receive a boost from CLF, which placed ad buys in the district. The race is one of the most expensive in the country. Official and outside groups are dedicating significant funding to Spanish language ads, $2 million in favor of Salas and $1 million for Valadao. The seat is rated a Toss-Up.
• CA-27: Rep. Mike Garcia (R) apologized to Jewish congregants at a Yom Kippur service for comments he made earlier this summer comparing the Biden-Harris Administration to Adolf Hitler’s Nazi regime. Garcia faces Democrat Christy Smith, who shared her experiences with high-risk pregnancies to highlight her support for reproductive freedom. Garcia supports a nationwide abortion ban. Despite being one of 14 districts Biden won that is represented by a Republican, the DCCC is not spending heavily in the race, drawing concern from some California Democrats. The seat is rated a Toss-Up.
• CA-47: CLF is targeting Rep. Katie Porter (D) with a $700,000 ad buy in the race’s closing weeks. Porter is running in a new coastal district against Republican Scott Baugh, though the district’s partisan makeup leans in favor of Democrats. Porter raised $4.5 million in the third quarter alone and has $15 million cash on hand. Baugh recently called out Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez’s (D-NY) campaign appearances in Orange County, claiming she has nothing in common with the district and labeling Porter a radical. The seat is rated Lean Democratic.
• CA-49: Rep. Mike Levin (D) and Brian Maryott (R) held a well-attended debate earlier this month covering familiar ground: gas prices, inflation, and abortion. Levin noted his bipartisan credentials in Congress, while Maryott attempted to portray him as out-of-step with the district’s values. Maryott will get a boost from a CLF ad buy in the district. The seat shifted from Lean Democratic to Toss-Up.
• CO-08: At a debate last week, pediatrician and State Sen. Yadira Caraveo (D) responded to a question about her support for a state law that protects abortion rights regardless of trimester by saying she supports codifying Roe v. Wade in federal law. State Sen. Barbara Kirkmeyer (R) said her position on the issue evolved from banning abortions without exceptions to supporting exceptions for the mother’s life. Caraveo’s response to a question about inflation referenced federal support for affordable housing, while Kirkmeyer said the federal government needs to stop excessive spending to get inflation under control. A survey conducted by Global Strategy Group, a Democratic-leaning firm, showed Caraveo trailing Kirkmeyer by two points, 46 percent to 44 percent. Caraveo leads Kirkmeyer 48 percent to 42 percent with unaffiliated voters. The seat is rated a Toss-up.
• FL-13: A David Binder Research poll shows former Obama official Eric Lynn (D) and Air Force veteran Anna Paulina Luna (R) tied at 47 percent in the race to replace former Democratic Rep. Charlie Crist. Among unaffiliated voters, Lynn leads Luna 48 to 43 percent. The Lynn campaign released a list of events Luna missed, including multiple debates and a candidate interview. The seat is rated Likely Republican.
• FL-15: Former Republican Secretary of State Laurel Lee raised over $1 million, more than double her Democratic opponent Alan Cohn, a former journalist and television news anchor. Lee, whose former job included overseeing Florida’s elections, refuses to say whether she believes Biden won. The seat is rated Likely Republican.
• FL-27: A new television ad paints Democratic State Sen. Annette Taddeo as a socialist, claiming she supports the communist regime in Cuba. Taddeo is challenging Republican Rep. María Elvira Salazar in one of the most expensive races in South Florida. A host of political committees spent nearly $3 million to support the candidates. The race is rated Lean Republican.
• IL-06: Democratic Rep. Sean Casten is touting Democratic achievements in Congress in his case for re-election. He names inflation, gas prices, and abortion as the most important issues facing voters. Republican Orland Park Mayor Keith Pekau said inflation, crime, and the economy are the top issues, citing low crime rates, spending cuts, and refusal to shut down during the pandemic as highlights of his mayoral career. However, the most significant point of contention remains around the Downers Grove Library drag show, which was canceled due to threats. Pekau claims the event is an inappropriate use of taxpayer money and should not be marketed to children. Casten defended the event as a celebration of diversity. The race is rated Likely Democratic.
• IL-17: Former Democratic presidential candidate and U.S. Representative from Hawaii Tulsi Gabbard flew to Illinois to campaign with Republican candidate and former Army officer Esther Joy King, who faces former TV meteorologist Eric Sorensen. King raised twice as much as Sorensen, and Super PACs are spending more than the candidates themselves. The race is rated a Toss-up.
• IN-01: Republican candidate and Air Force veteran Jennifer-Ruth Green is making inroads to unseat Rep. Frank Mrvan (D) as a Black conservative in a traditionally blue district. Green accused Mrvan and his “cronies” of illegally obtaining and releasing her service records, including her performance reviews and a 2009 report of sexual assault while deployed in Iraq. Mrvan hosted Rep. Hakeem Jeffries (D-NY) in Gary for a meeting with local elected officials. The seat is rated a Toss-Up.
• KS-03: Rep. Sharice Davids (D) reported a record $2.5 million fundraising haul heading into the last weeks of campaigning. Davids raised and spent twice as much as Republican Amanda Adkins. In an October 21 debate, Davids criticized Adkins’ alignment with alleged “extremists” who question election outcomes and support abortion bans. Meanwhile, Adkins aimed for Davids’ party-line voting record amid rising anxiety over inflation. The seat shifted from Toss-Up to Lean Democratic.
• MI-07: Amid her neck-and-neck battle for reelection, Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D) declared Democrats “need new blood in 2024” and called for a new generation of Democratic leadership. Slotkin also amended her financial disclosures after omitting her husband’s employment with a company that received millions of dollars in government contracts. Slotkin is facing a tight race against GOP State Sen. Tom Barrett but maintains a healthy fundraising lead over her opponent, with $4 million cash on hand compared to $120,000 for Barrett. A Detroit News poll showed Slotkin up 47 to 41 percent. The seat is rated a Toss-Up.
• MI-10: Three-time candidate John James (R) is leading prosecutor and federal judge Carl Marlinga (D) in fundraising and the polls. In a Detroit News poll, James leads Marlinga 44 to 36 percent. James raised $2.07 million in Q3, compared to Marlinga’s $475,000. The seat is rated Likely Republican.
• MN-01: Republican Rep. Brad Finstad and Jeff Ettinger (D) faced each other in their first debate last week. Ettinger portrayed himself as a “moderate candidate with mainstream views.” Finstad said he would prioritize reducing the size and role of the federal government, claiming that national policies have led to inflation and high gas prices. The race is rated Likely Republican.
• MN-02: Democratic Rep. Angie Craig and Republican Tyler Kistner went head-to-head in their first and only debate. Kistner said excessive federal spending and a lack of investment in U.S. energy are to blame for rising costs. Craig highlighted Medicare prescription drug negotiation provisions in the Inflation Reduction Act as one way to reduce prices. Abortion was the most contentious issue as Craig said Kistner is “too extreme” on the issue and hiding his true position by editing his campaign website. Kistner responded by stating that he is pro-life but supports exceptions for rape, incest, and the mother’s health. The race is rated a Toss-Up.
• MT-01: Internal Democratic polls show a tight race for this new seat featuring former Rep. and Trump Administration Interior Secretary Ryan Zinke and Democrat Monica Tranel. Zinke’s campaign is clouded by ethics complaints about his time in the Trump Administration and low favorability. A Libertarian candidate, John Lamb, could also take votes from Zinke. The seat shifted from Likely Republican to Lean Republican.
• NC-13: Wiley Nickel (D) and Bo Hines (R) are in a close race to succeed Rep. Ted Budd (R), who is running for Senate. The race has gone negative, with Democrats casting Hines as “an entitled 27-year-old carpetbagger who’s never had a real job and would support a ‘national ban on abortion.’” Republicans paint Nickel as a “liberal trial lawyer who has eagerly defended ‘child abusers, drug dealers and rapists’ in court.” Both candidates have spent over $2 million, and each loaned their campaigns about $900,000. The race is rated a Toss-Up.
• NE-02: Republican Rep. Don Bacon and Democrat State Sen. Tony Vargas faced each other in their first debate. Both candidates portrayed themselves as moderate while framing their opponent as extreme. Bacon criticized Vargas’ votes in the state legislature to increase taxes, while Vargas countered by claiming, “I stepped up to buck the Democratic Party and voted for tax relief.” Vargas noted Bacon’s support for legislation defining constitutional rights to life starting at conception. Bacon said he supports abortion exceptions for the life and health of the mother. The race is rated a Toss-Up.
• NJ-07: Rep. Tom Malinowski (D) and former State Sen. Tom Kean Jr. (R) faced off in the first of two debates on October 10. Kean tied Malinowski to excessive government spending and inflation, while Malinowski returned to a central campaign message of protecting women’s reproductive rights. Malinowski outraised the Kean campaign in Q3 by almost $1 million and spent $2.3 million more. However, the NRCC and outside groups like CLF have spent over $3 million in the district, offsetting Malinowski’s fundraising advantage. This race is rated Lean Republican.
• NY-04: The race to succeed Rep. Kathleen Rice (D) is shifting in favor of Republicans. Cook Political Report updated its rating from Likely Democratic to Lean Democratic because Republican Hempstead Town Councilman Anthony D’Esposito is considered a stronger candidate than former Hempstead Town Supervisor Laura Gillen (D). Voters’ concern about crime may allow the GOP to win in a district where Democrats outnumber Republicans.
• NY-17: The CLF purchased a $4 million TV ad buy against DCCC Chair Rep. Sean Patrick Maloney (D) focused on crime and bail reform. The investment comes on top of the $2 million CLF already reserved, dwarfing Maloney’s over $2 million ad spending. State legislator Michael Lawler’s (R) campaign has only invested $380,000. CLF’s significant investment and internal polling from both parties showing Maloney and Lawler locked in a tight race caused Cook Political Report to shift this race from Lean Democrat to Toss-Up earlier this week.
• NY-18: At the only televised debate, Democratic Rep. Pat Ryan, who won a special election in August to fill the remainder of the term in the 19th District, faced off against State Assemblyman Colin Schmitt (R). While Schmitt focused on inflation and the “Biden economy,” Ryan discussed affordability in the Hudson Valley, stating the community “needs more housing, federal money, and resources.” This race is rated Lean Democratic.
• NY-19: A Spectrum News/Siena College poll shows a five-point lead for attorney Josh Riley (D) over Dutchess County Executive Marc Molinaro (R), with 14 percent undecided. Riley has an advantage among independent voters, who support him over Molinaro 46–40 percent. Most voters ranked economic issues, including inflation and the cost of living, as the deciding issue, while “threats to democracy” ranked second with 31 percent. This race is rated as Lean Democratic.
• NV-01: Rep. Dina Titus (D) was added to the DCCC Red Alert list last week in her reelection campaign against Republican Mark Robertson. Titus has $968,861 cash on hand compared to Robertson’s $295,880. In an interview with The Nevada Independent, Titus said her top priorities are strengthening infrastructure, continued economic recovery in the tourism and hospitality industries, and responding to climate change. In a similar interview with Robertson, the Republican said affordability and cost of living issues should be handled at the local level, and federal taxes should be lower. On abortion, Robertson said, “I believe that a woman should have a choice whether or not she engages in activities that lead to pregnancy. And when a woman doesn’t have the choice, like in the case of rape or incest…abortion should be an option.” The seat is rated a Toss-Up.
• NV-04: Democratic Rep. Steven Horsford and Republican Sam Peters held a pair of debates that were contentious at times. Peters called Horsford a “rubber stamp” for Biden, and the two had a heated exchange about abortion. Peters described himself as pro-life but said he would support some rights before 24 weeks and make exceptions in cases of rape, incest, and to protect the mother’s life. The Nevada Independent noted his debate position was a departure from statements on his website. The seat is rated Lean Democratic.
• OH-01: At their first debate, Republican Rep. Steve Chabot noted his support for the first major bipartisan gun safety legislation to become law in decades, while Democratic Cincinnati Councilman Greg Landsman (D) vowed to support an assault weapons ban if elected. On abortion, Chabot noted his work on legislation to restrict abortions late in pregnancy, while Landsman said he would vote to codify Roe v. Wade. Chabot has served in Congress since 1995 and is facing an unusually tough race due to redistricting. The seat is rated a Toss-Up.
• OR-04: Val Hoyle (D) and Alek Skarlatos (R) faced off in a debate earlier this month. Hoyle touted her bipartisan credentials from her time in state government while not disavowing her progressive inclinations. Skarlatos attempted to portray himself as a moderate who would cut bipartisan deals in Congress, a position that some argue is inconsistent with his past rhetoric. Additionally, last week Hoyle was named to the DCCC’s Red Alert list, signifying candidates needing immediate financial support. The seat is rated Lean Democratic.
• PA-07: Rep. Susan Wild (D) was added to the DCCC Red Alert list last week to push for additional funding to support her reelection campaign against Republican Lisa Scheller. Wild had $1,579,342 cash on hand on September 30, compared to $544,061 for Scheller. The seat is rated a Toss-Up.
• PA-08: Democratic Rep. Matt Cartwright debated this election’s hot-button issues with his Republican challenger Jim Bognet last Thursday. Bognet criticized a Cartwright ad showing two local voters, one who supports Biden and another in a MAGA hat who supports Trump. Both say they support Cartwright. Bognet bristled at the depiction due to Cartwright’s two votes in favor of impeaching Trump. In post-debate spin, Bognet emphasized Cartwright’s connections to the Democratic establishment, while Cartwright questioned the honesty of Bognet’s answers and urged voters to think independently. The seat is rated a Toss-Up.
• RI-02: A Suffolk University/Boston Globe poll found Republican candidate Allan Fung holds an eight-point lead over Democrat Seth Magaziner in this race to replace the retiring Rep. James Langevin (D). Magaziner went on offense at a recent debate, accusing Fung of supporting big business over the working class. Fung blamed Democrats for inflation and criticized Magaziner for supporting gas and heating oil taxes. Fung also distanced himself from national Republicans on abortion, stating he “will never support a national abortion ban or criminalize abortion.” This race is rated as a Toss-Up.
• TN-05: Despite redistricting shifting this seat from Biden +23 to Trump +11, Democratic candidate and State Sen. Heidi Campbell outraised former Republican Maury County Mayor Andy Ogles by a nearly two-to-one margin, raking in more than $533,000 compared to Ogles’ $297,800. Trump endorsed Ogles last week. Campbell responded, reminding voters Trump endorsed a different Republican primary candidate. The seat shifted from Solid Republican to Likely Republican.
• TX-28: Republican challenger Cassy Garcia outraised Rep. Henry Cuellar (D) by $1.7 million to Cuellar’s $838,000. Cuellar maintains a sizeable cash-on-hand advantage, with $836,000 to Garcia’s $384,000. The seat is rated Lean Democratic.
• TX-34: While CLF is spending over $500,000 to boost Rep. Mayra Flores (R), Democratic Rep. Vicente Gonzalez recently drew criticism for using a photo of Flores edited to make her look more aggressive. Flores appears to be gaining momentum, raising $1.6 million compared to just under $500,000 for Gonzalez. The seat is rated a Toss-Up.
• VA-02: Rep. Elaine Luria (D) and State Sen. Jen Kiggans (R) debated twice, exchanging views on inflation, abortion, and defense spending. Luria sought to expose Kiggans’ refusal to accept the 2020 presidential election results, while Kiggans worked to tie Luria to Biden. Luria announced raising more than $2.9 million in Q3. The seat is rated a Toss-Up.
• VA-07: Rep. Abigail Spanberger (D) released an ad featuring a retired police chief criticizing Republican candidate and former law enforcement official Yesli Vega. Spanberger outspent Vega by $3.5 million to $1.4 million so far. The seat shifted from Lean Democratic to Toss-Up.
• WA-03: Concerns over the lack of national party support for Democratic nominee Marie Gluesenkamp Perez are rising. Perez raised over $2 million from donors, while Republican nominee Joe Kent secured roughly $700,000. The candidates are set to debate tonight. The seat is rated Lean Republican.
• WA-08: Rep. Kim Schrier (D) and Republican challenger Matt Larkin will debate tomorrow as both candidates highlight differing views on the economy. The debate comes as the NRCC released a new ad criticizing Schrier for her support of “tax and spend” policies. Schrier, meanwhile, is facing local criticism after a Covington Police Chief objected to his photo appearing in campaign mailers. The seat is rated a Toss-Up.
• WI-03: Democratic candidate Brad Pfaff stated his Republican opponent Derrick Van Orden does not share western Wisconsin values because of his involvement in the January 6 Capitol riots. House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer (D-MD) joined Pfaff for a press conference in which he stated that “we cannot have someone [in office] who was out there and part of that.” Van Orden called Pfaff’s statement “slander” and pointed to him as a “career politician.” The race shifted from Lean Republican to Likely Republican.

Ratings

The Cook Political Report lists 38 Democratic-held and 18 Republican-held seats as Lean or Toss-Up and rates seven Democratic-held seats as Likely or Solid Republican and zero Republican seats as Likely or Solid Democratic. Inside Elections considers 40 Democratic-held and 17 Republican-held seats as Tilt/Lean or Toss-Up, with five Democratic seats as Likely Republican and zero Republican districts as Likely Democratic. Click to enlarge.

SENATE

Democratic candidates hold an advantage in airtime reservations in seven of the ten most competitive races. Despite the ad blitz, races are tightening, and party control of the Senate is a dead heat. The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee (DSCC) reported $83.8 million raised in Q3, compared to $25 million reported by the National Republican Senatorial Campaign (NRSC).

From the Frontlines

• Arizona: GOP mega-donor Peter Thiel is planning to spend as much as $5 million to support Blake Masters (R), having previously donated $15 million. Sen. Mark Kelly (D) enjoys a significant fundraising and cash-on-hand advantage. He received help recently from the Democratic Senate Majority PAC in an ad titled “Devasted,” which asserts Masters’ support to cut and privatize Social Security will negatively impact Arizonans. Kelly leads Masters by 4.2 points, according to FiveThirtyEight’s polling average, but this race shifted from Lean Democrat back to Toss-Up today, reflecting sentiment on the ground this a “margin-of-error race.”
• Colorado: In a CNN interview, GOP challenger Joe O’Dea shared he would actively campaign against Trump should he run again, the latest move by O’Dea to brand himself as a moderate Republican. In the same segment, Sen. Michael Bennet (D) defended his party’s response to inflation, noting it is not exclusive to the United States. Bennet leads O’Dea by 8.8 points on average. This race is rated Lean Democrat.
• Florida: Cook Political Report changed its rating from Lean Republican to Likely Republican, as polling shows Sen. Marco Rubio (R) holding a solid mid-single digit lead over Rep. Val Demings (D) since September. Democrats hope last week’s first and only debate between the two candidates — which centered on abortion, Hurricane Ian recovery efforts, and national security — will help Demings close the gap. Although Demings is very successful in small-dollar fundraising, she is not receiving help from the DSCC, and Rubio has a roughly $3 million cash-on-hand advantage. His campaign has used these funds to launch three new ads highlighting his work around emergency recoveries, childhood cancer, and protecting the Everglades.
• Iowa: Surprising observers, a recent Des Moines Register poll found retired Navy Admiral and Democratic challenger Mike Franken trailing longtime Sen. Chuck Grassley (R) by just three points — 43 to 46 percent, within the margin of error. For context, FiveThirtyEight polling averages show Grassley up by 7.1 points, and his closest race was his first in 1980, where he defeated the incumbent Democrat by eight percent. Franken is running on popular Democratic issues like protecting reproductive rights and lowering the cost of prescription drugs. He is calling for a change in the “status quo” of electing Grassley to a ninth Senate term. Franken’s campaign also had a recent allegation surface from a former campaign staffer who claimed Franken gave an unwanted kiss, which was investigated and closed as unfounded by local law enforcement. This race shifted from Solid Republican to Likely Republican.
• Georgia: A Landmark Communications poll shows the race between Sen. Raphael Warnock (D) and Herschel Walker (R) virtually tied. As Walker continues to deny allegations he paid for an ex-girlfriend’s abortion, his campaign is attacking Warnock’s character by accusing him of domestic abuse and claiming the Senator played a role in evicting several Atlanta residents. Warnock’s campaign is touting his bipartisanship in the Senate. Both candidates continue to pour money into ad buys leading up to the election; Warnock is leading with $27 million in advertising reservations compared to Walker’s $19 million. This race is rated a Toss-Up.
• Nevada: Former President Barack Obama is scheduled to visit the Silver State on November 1 to energize voters in the final days of early voting as Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto (D) is increasingly seen as the most vulnerable Democrat incumbent. GOP challenger Adam Laxalt is virtually tied with the senator in FiveThirtyEight polling average. Recent Axios reporting found that Laxalt’s late father, Senator Pete Domenici (R-NM), stated in a 2006 Senate floor speech that his mother — the candidate’s grandmother — was an undocumented immigrant and, at one point, was detained by federal immigration authorities. The revelation contrasts with Laxalt’s hardline position on immigration and Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals (DACA). This race is rated a Toss-Up.
• New Hampshire: Retired Army Gen. Don Bolduc (R) said he would not support Sen. Mitch McConnell (R-KY) as Republican leader if elected. In response, the McConnell-aligned Senate Leadership Fund canceled $5.6 million in ads reserved for Bolduc. Meanwhile, Sen. Maggie Hassan’s (D-NH) campaign continues to highlight the candidates’ differing positions on abortion rights in ads. Hassan and Bolduc recently sparred on reproductive rights issues, inflation, and foreign policy in a little-publicized debate. The race is rated Lean Democrat.
• North Carolina: A new East Carolina University poll shows Rep. Ted Budd (R) with a six-point edge over Cheri Beasley (D), with five percent undecided. This momentum in Budd’s favor seems to be due to narrowing margins among female voters, reflecting the national trend of the economy rather than abortion being top-of-mind for voters. The Republican Senate Leadership Fund continues to pour more money into this race than Democratic Super PACs, giving Budd a spending advantage of $11.6 million to Beasley’s $6.8 million leading up to the election.
• Ohio: In the second debate between Rep. Tim Ryan (D) and former venture capitalist JD Vance (R), things were far from cordial, as the two candidates labeled each other as an “ass-kisser” and “suck-up” to their respective party leaders. Throughout the campaign, Ryan benefitted from ads painting him as a moderate. Vance used the debate as an attempt to poke holes in that narrative. Recent polls from USA Today/Suffolk University and Cygnal found Vance maintaining a one- and four-point edge, respectively. The race is rated Lean Republican.
• Pennsylvania: On Tuesday, Lt. Gov. John Fetterman (D) and Dr. Mehmet Oz (R) met for a long-awaited debate. The two candidates argued over abortion, crime, and fracking, and both largely avoided explicit discussion of Fetterman’s May stroke, though its after-effects were obvious. Fetterman briefly addressed the issue, insisting he is 100 percent capable of serving in the Senate despite utilizing closed captioning to accommodate his auditory processing disorder. Oz described abortion decisions as being between “women, doctors, and local political leaders.” Oz’s campaign continues to hit Fetterman on crime and his health, an ad strategy helping the former reality TV star gain ground. In response, Democrats are not pulling punches, as the Senate Majority PAC launched multi-million dollar ad buys highlighting animal abuse allegations from Oz-led medical studies. The ad blitz shows no signs of slowing down, as Democrats have $29.2 million in ads booked, and the SLF is investing another $6.2 million (reallocated from New Hampshire) to bolster Oz. The latest AARP poll shows Fetterman clinging to a two-point lead, within the margin of error. Last week, the Pennsylvania Supreme Court affirmed a lower court decision allowing counties with cure processes to help voters correct technical issues with their ballot. The race is rated a Toss-Up.
• Wisconsin: During the final debate, Sen. Ron Johnson (R) and Lt. Gov. Mandela Barnes (D) attacked each other over their track records and respective stances on crime. Other inflammatory topics included Social Security, immigration, inflation, and abortion. Democrats are mobilizing to help Barnes recover from Johnson’s six-point advantage in the polls. Obama is set to campaign for Barnes in Milwaukee on October 29. The Senate Majority PAC launched a campaign ad featuring a Wisconsin police officer critiquing Johnson’s downplaying of the January 6 insurrection. Meanwhile, Johnson’s campaign opened an online portal to promote election security, which allows individuals to report instances of alleged election fraud. This race is rated a Toss-Up.

Ratings

The Cook Political Report lists five Democratic-held and four Republican-held seats as Lean or Toss-Up. Inside Elections considers four Democratic-held and four Republican-held seats as Tilt/Lean or Toss-Up. Click to enlarge.

GOVERNORS

Gubernatorial races reflect the same tightening observed in the congressional races, most notably in New York, where Democrats are starting to worry about Gov. Kathy Hochul’s (D) lead over Rep. Lee Zeldin (R). Among the five toss-up races, Arizona is the only state where the candidates do not plan to meet for a debate, where Democrat Katie Hobbs claims Kari Lake is more interested in spectacle than substance and Lake claims Hobbs was scared. Debates in the closing weeks can provide a chance for trailing challengers to flip the script on favored incumbents.

From the Frontlines

• Arizona: Republican TV news anchor Kari Lake appeared on CNN’s State of the Union to discuss the economy, border security, and voter fraud. Lake said she would “win the election and accept that result” when asked if she would honor the results. The failure to set a debate between Lake and Secretary of State Katie Hobbs (D) continues to cause controversy in the race. On October 12, the Arizona Citizens Clean Elections Commission, which partnered with Arizona PBS, postponed an interview with Lake and ended its work with PBS because the broadcaster went forward with an interview with Hobbs without informing the commission. In Hobbs’ interview with Arizona PBS, she focused on advancing Arizona’s economy, education system, and abortion rights. In the commission’s rescheduled interview with Lake on October 23, Lake unsurprisingly commented on Hobbs’ decision not to participate in a debate, saying she “was not courageous enough to show up.” The FiveThirtyEight forecast slightly favors Lake based on recent polling. This race is rated a Toss-Up.
• Florida: The first and only debate between Republican Gov. Ron DeSantis and former Rep. Charlie Crist (D) took place on Monday. DeSantis called Crist a “worn-out old donkey” and refused to commit to serving a full term if elected, confirming speculation about a 2024 presidential run. Crist said DeSantis denied science with COVID-19 and recent Hurricane Ian, stating “he thinks he knows better than anybody.” Crist’s campaign manager resigned from the campaign this week after he was arrested and charged with misdemeanor assault. Crist recently released an ad targeting DeSantis’s abortion policies. This race is rated Likely Republican.
• Georgia: In their first and only debate, Republican Gov. Brian Kemp connected Democratic challenger Stacey Abrams to Biden and inflation while Abrams committed to reversing Georgia’s six-week abortion ban. Kemp recently tweeted an ad claiming Abrams wants to follow California and New York’s “radical policies” such as closing schools due to COVID-19 and defunding the police. Lin Manuel Miranda campaigned alongside Abrams, lending his star power to promote early voting. The race is rated Lean Republican.
• Kansas: Former Republican Attorney General Carla Stovall crossed party lines to endorse Democratic Gov. Laura Kelly over Republican Attorney General Derek Schmidt. She is the first former or current Republican statewide official to endorse Kelly. Secretary of Transportation Pete Buttigieg spoke to a Kansas City crowd of about 300 on October 19, sharing his support for Kelly and other Democratic candidates. Former Vice President Mike Pence; Sen. Jerry Moran (R-KS); and Reps. Ron Estes (R-KS), Tracey Mann (R-KS), and Jake LaTurner (R-KS) rallied to support Schmidt on October 21. This race is rated a Toss-Up.
• Michigan: At their first gubernatorial debate, Democratic Gov. Gretchen Whitmer and Republican Tudor Dixon said they would respect the outcome of a referendum that would add abortion rights to the state’s constitution. Dixon claimed Whitmer is “confused about a constitutional amendment because this is a governor who time and time again thought she was above the constitution of Michigan.” Whitmer responded by calling the comment “ironic” because Dixon “still denies the outcome of the 2020 election.” The candidates also discussed education and gun safety. Whitmer and Dixon participated in a second debate on October 25, where Whitmer accused Dixon of stoking violence, spreading conspiracy theories, and attacking women and teachers. Dixon called Whitmer dishonest, manipulative, careless, and a career politician. This race is rated Likely Democratic.
• Nevada: Republican Clark County Sheriff Joe Lombardo is polling ahead of Democratic Gov. Steve Sisolak, with FiveThirtyEight’s forecast calling the race a dead heat. Ultimate Fighting Championship President Dana White endorsed Lombardo, touting his public safety efforts through the COVID-19 pandemic. Sisolak will also need to overcome a vote of no confidence from the Nevada Police Union, citing his failure to address pay inequity and poor working conditions that produced high turnover rates across the state’s law enforcement agencies. Last weekend, Sisolak was busy visiting with labor unions and minority communities at get-out-the-vote block parties to mark the start of early voting. This race is rated a Toss-Up.
• New Mexico: An October 19–21 Trafalgar Group poll shows Republican candidate Mark Ronchetti ahead of Democratic Gov. Michelle Lujan Grisham by one point, with Libertarian candidate Karen Bedonie earning 3.9 percent of the vote. This is the first time Ronchetti is leading Lujan Grisham in this campaign, perhaps due to an increase in negative ads toward the incumbent. The Republican Governors Association released an ad claiming Lujan Grisham “sexually assaulted a staffer, feasted on wagyu beef on the taxpayer’s dime, and released hardened criminals from jail early.” Lujan Grisham welcomed Vice President Kamala Harris on October 25 to discuss protecting reproductive rights. This race is rated Lean Democratic.
• New York: While still considered “Solid Democratic,” polls last week from Siena College Research Institute and Quinnipiac University show Republican Rep. Lee Zeldin closing the gap. Quinnipiac’s survey showed Democratic Gov. Kathy Hochul with a slight edge of 50–46 percent and down 37–57 among Independents. Twenty-eight percent of respondents said crime is the most important issue in the election, which favors Zeldin, compared to six percent listing abortion as their highest priority, which Hochul used as the centerpiece of her campaign. However, Hochul is making a late pivot to other issues.
• Oregon: The state’s last Republican governor finished his term when “Walk Like An Egyptian” was top of the pop charts. This year’s race includes Democrat-turned-Independent candidate Betsy Johnson, who is expected to draw significant support away from former State House Speaker Tina Kotek (D), raising the odds that Republican Christine Drazan will win. During an October 19 debate, Johnson and Drazan teamed up against Kotek when she stated she has always supported the police. Drazan and Johnson claimed Kotek “was the original defund the police candidate” and was against law enforcement. The president of the Portland Police Association agreed with Drazan and Johnson and claimed Kotek’s statement was “simply not true.” This race is rated a Toss-Up.
• Pennsylvania: Republican candidate Doug Mastriano’s academic record is under scrutiny. The retired military officer received a Ph.D. from the U.S. Army War College, but two former professors recently called Mastriano unfit for office. Mastriano is continuing to use hardline immigration messaging. At a York town hall, Mastriano said he would bus migrants to Biden’s home state of Delaware, saying, “Joe Biden can have them.” Democratic Attorney General Josh Shapiro continues to poll well ahead of the Republican; FiveThirtyEight’s weighted average shows Shapiro with an 8.3-point edge. This race is rated Likely Democratic.
• Wisconsin: In the first and only debate between Democratic Gov. Tony Evers and Republican Tim Michels, the candidates discussed election processes and reform, abortion rights, gun control, crime, and education. Before becoming governor, Evers served as the state’s top education official. Michels supports increased school vouchers and said the state’s education system is “broken” after years of Evers’ leadership. When discussing whether critical race theory should be taught in schools, Michels vowed to get parents involved, saying, “parents decide, not a couple of woke educrats.” Evers, however, believes race should be taught in schools. He cited lessons about Japanese internment during World War II and said, “We are a strong state and a strong country. If we can’t talk about things like that, we’re in sad shape.” This race is rated a Toss-Up.

Ratings

Cook Political Report lists six Democratic-held and two Republican-held seats as Lean or Toss-Up. Inside Elections lists eight Democratic-held and two Republican-held seats as Tilt/Lean or Toss-Up and two Republican-held seats as Likely Democratic.