Election Update — Issue 10

26 Days to Election Day

The late summer Democratic momentum is slowing. As voters start paying closer attention, Republicans are making gains focusing on inflation and crime, while Democratic enthusiasm may be waning nearly four months since the Dobbs decision. Competitive Senate races are tightening, with Super PAC investments making up the difference for lackluster Republican candidate fundraising and former President Donald Trump deploying his “MAGA, Inc.” war chest for the first time to support races in Arizona, Nevada, Georgia, Pennsylvania, and Ohio. Today, 31 House races are competitive, and Democrats must win 25 to keep their majority.

According to a recent NBC/Telemundo poll, Latino voters are no longer reliably Democratic, with Democratic support falling from 42 percent in 2012 to just 21 percent in September. As Latino voter participation steadily increased over that period, Republicans now benefit from a four-point advantage when it comes to handling the economy.

Inflation continues to be the most critical issue for 37 percent of Americans, according to a recent NPR/Marist poll, with a clear partisan divide of 52 to 22 percent for Republicans and Democrats motivated by inflation to vote. Preserving democracy follows at 27 percent, with abortion (13 percent), immigration (12 percent), and health care (10 percent) following.

With 26 days to go until Election Day, here is Invariant’s latest outlook on the state of play in the House, Senate, and gubernatorial races to watch.

HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES

Congress is in recess after a busy September work period, including a last-minute continuing resolution to fund the government through December 16. Members are making a final push to sway voters and participate in debates. Cook Political Report released new ratings in 11 House races, with seven shifting toward Democrats. Last week, FiveThirtyEight moved the GOP from “slightly favored” to “favored” to win control of the House. The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee’s (DCCC) executive director made news by raising concern that Democrats will not have the money to engage in every competitive race despite internal polling showing candidates running ahead or within the margin of error. While Democrats are keeping pace with party fundraising, outside spending favors Republicans. So far, Republican outside groups have spent $249 million on ads, compared to $202 million by Democratic outside groups.

From the Frontlines

• AK-AL: While Republicans hope Rep. Mary Peltola’s (D) special election win was a fluke of the new ranked-choice voting system, a new poll from Alaska Survey Research indicates negative views of the two Republican candidates are jeopardizing their chances of retaking the seat in November. The poll found Sarah Palin (R) has a disapproval rating of more than 65 percent. Peltola’s favorable polling is even more concerning for Republicans, with 54 percent approving and 49 percent stating they would choose Peltola in the first round of ranked-choice voting. With Palin and fellow Republican Nick Begich expected to split their party’s vote in the first round, Peltola is polling close to the 50 percent threshold needed to win the race outright in the first round. This seat is rated as a Toss-Up.
• AZ-01: At their first debate, Republican Rep. David Schweikert and Democratic challenger Jevin Hodge sparred over immigration, the economy, and aid for Ukraine. When asked “What is your district’s biggest unmet need?” Hodge responded the district needs a representative who “they can trust to look out for them, not someone like Schweikert who…is only looking to line his own pockets.” Schweikert pointed to his experience serving the district over the last decade and his support for conservative fiscal policies. The seat is rated a Toss-Up.
• AZ-02: In a recent interview, Republican challenger Eli Crane claimed “Marxists, communists, and socialists” have infiltrated institutions in the country and noted he would gladly accept an invitation to join the House Freedom Caucus should he prevail in November. Rep. Tom O’Halleran (D) is running more competitively than expected in the Trump +8 district and hopes voters will select a candidate who is more than a “30-second sound bite” and “listen and identify the capacity of a person to do their job and keep their promises.” The seat is rated Lean Republican.
• AZ-04: In a recent debate, Rep. Greg Stanton (D) said his Republican challenger Kelly Cooper is “so extreme that he has attacked Governor Ducey and other Republicans who refuse to go along with the Big Lie. He even uses violent rhetoric — recently telling an audience that it’s time to ‘assault’ Arizonans who disagree with him politically.” Cooper’s campaign finances are under scrutiny regarding the source of the $1.3 million he loaned to his campaign. Despite amending his financial disclosures, it appears the issue is still unresolved. The seat is rated Likely Democratic.
• CA-09: Rep. Josh Harder is now favored to win this seat against Republican Tom Patti, who avoided censure this week as a San Joaquin County Supervisor. He was cleared of bribery but found to have threatened his staff and community groups. After it fell off the National Republican Congressional Committee’s (NRCC) priority list, Cook Political Report shifted this race from Lean Democratic to Likely Democratic.
• CA-22: Tensions are escalating in the tight race between Rep. David Valadao (R) and challenger Rudy Salas (D). Last week, Valadao began airing ads containing various damaging allegations against Salas, including claims Salas’s votes in the California Assembly increased “the price of lifesaving medicine that cancer patients need.” The ads prompted Salas to hold a press conference demanding Valadao retract them. The seat is rated a Toss-Up.
• CA-47: Rep. Katie Porter (D) drew criticism after leaked texts showed her criticizing a local police department after arresting a man she lives with for assaulting a protestor at a campaign rally this summer. Porter’s campaign said the Congresswoman was frustrated by poor police planning for the rally and has worked cooperatively with the department since the incident. Porter faces Republican Scott Baugh. The seat is rated Lean Democratic.
• CO-07: During a virtual forum, Democratic State Sen. Brittany Pettersen and Republican veteran Erik Aadland agreed polarization is the country’s greatest existential crisis and see the partisan divide as a top priority. Pettersen advocated for legislation to help restore trust in elections, including the Presidential Election Reform Act and For the People Act. Aadland believes solving distrust is a critical issue, and he supports measures such as voter ID laws but concludes the decision should be left to states. The seat is rated Likely Democratic.
• CO-08: The Denver Post endorsed Democratic candidate Yadira Caraveo in her race to claim this new seat, highlighting Caraveo’s work as a pediatrician and state lawmaker reflecting her commitment to the district. The editorial board appreciated Republican candidate Barbara Kirkmeyer’s experience as a state senator and commissioner of Weld County, where she addressed county debt, but said it was “disappointed she didn’t bring concrete examples of how she would help right the fiscal ship in Washington.” Caraveo announced raising $1.5 million in Q3. The seat is rated a Toss-Up.
• CT-05: In his first television ad, Republican George Logan claimed his opponents are “only coming after him” because he is not a typical Republican. Logan is challenging Rep. Jahana Hayes (D), who used her first ad to highlight her experience as a “single mom in public housing” who “knows what it’s like to live paycheck to paycheck.” Super PACs on both sides are investing heavily in the district, which is considered the most competitive House seat in the state. This race is rated as Lean Democratic.
• FL-07: Redistricting tipped this Orlando district heavily toward Republicans to replace Rep. Stephanie Murphy (D). Cook Political Report moved its rating from Likely Republican to Solid Republican. Dave Wasserman explained Democratic nominee Karen Green “simply hasn’t put together a serious campaign.” Green is facing Army combat veteran Cory Mills.
• FL-27: Democratic nominee and Florida State Sen. Anette Taddeo challenged Republican Rep. Maria Elvira Salazar to four debates, two in English and two in Spanish, which will likely happen later this month. Additionally, a Super PAC tied to House Republican Leader Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) reserved nearly $1.7 million worth of broadcast time for English- and Spanish-language ads to help Salazar. Taddeo released ads in English and Spanish criticizing Salazar’s anti-abortion views as support for “government control of women’s health care decisions.” Cook shifted the race from Likely Republican to Lean Republican.
• IA-01: At a debate between Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks (R) and challenger Christina Bohannan (D), the former emphasized her legislative accomplishments in her first term and her ability to push back against congressional Democrats and the Biden-Harris Administration. Bohannan connected Miller-Meeks to “extreme members” of the Republican Conference on issues like abortion. The seat shifted from Likely Republican to Lean Republican.
• IA-03: Dueling internal polls show a tight race between Rep. Cindy Axne (D) and challenger Zach Nunn (R). In a September 21–25 poll conducted for the Nunn campaign by the Moore Information Group, Nunn had a two-point lead. Meanwhile, an Axne campaign poll conducted by Impact Research from September 7–11 showed a tied race. Axne and Nunn debated issues including gun violence and school safety, inflation, student loan forgiveness, and abortion on October 6. The GOP-affiliated Congressional Leadership Fund is running an ad calling Axne “out of touch” for voting by proxy on the Inflation Reduction Act while vacationing in France. The seat is rated a Toss-Up.
• IL-06: Rep. Sean Casten (D) and Republican Keith Pekau disagree on several issues, including abortion. Casten supports federal legislation to protect the right to abortion care. Pekau took a pro-life stance during a virtual Republican candidate forum during the primary. Casten released ads calling Pekau “dangerous” and claiming the Republican supports bans on abortion in cases of rape or incest. The seat is rated Lean Democratic.
• KS-03: In a six-figure ad, Rep. Sharice Davids (D) targets Republican challenger Amanda Adkins’ pro-life positions. The ad claims Adkins was “100 percent” in favor of the failed amendment to the state constitution that would have removed protections for abortion rights. The race is rated as a Toss-Up.
• ME-02: At a recent debate, former Rep. Bruce Poliquin (R) questioned Rep. Jared Golden (D) on a political donation Golden received from the executive director of Seafood Watch. The organization warns consumers to avoid lobster caught off the coast of Maine due to alleged dangers to whales. Seafood Watch’s report caused retailers, including HelloFresh and Blue Apron, to pull Maine lobster from their menus. After the debate, Golden told reporters he would not return the donation and would “give every penny of it to our Maine lobster fisheries legal defense fund.” This race is rated as a Toss-Up.
• MI-07: In one of the most expensive races in the country — topping over $20 million in spending on ads and reservations — the DCCC is spending $4.4 million on Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D). The NRCC is devoting $6.6 million in support of challenger Tom Barrett. Groups like the Democratic-aligned House Majority PAC and GOP-aligned Congressional Leadership Fund plan to spend an additional $4 million each in the district. The seat is rated a Toss-Up.
• MI-08: Republican Paul Junge’s internal polling shows him in a virtual tie with Rep. Dan Kildee (D) at 45 to 44 percent, with a more decisive edge among Independents at 47 percent to 38 percent. Despite the encouraging poll numbers, Cook Political Report shifted its rating from Toss-Up to Lean Democratic due to the strength of Kildee’s name recognition and populist brand in an area his uncle represented in Congress for decades. In September, Kildee released a positive ad listing legislative wins on corporate tax increases and Medicare drug price negotiations and an attack ad quoting Junge saying abortion protections are “made-up rights” for women.
• NM-02: Rep. Yvette Herrell (R) is the target of two ads launched by the House Majority PAC. The ads, in line with the national Democratic strategy, tie Herrell to extreme stances on abortion and the rhetoric of Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-GA). Herrell faces Democratic challenger Gabe Vasquez in this race rated a Toss-Up.
• NV-03: A nonpartisan fact-checking website criticized a DCCC ad linking Republican candidate April Becker to support for a nationwide “no exceptions” abortion ban. The video now has a “false information” warning on Facebook. The ad is part of a broader trend of Democratic candidates and groups seeking to use abortion as a wedge issue. Becker is challenging Democratic Rep. Susie Lee and claiming federal spending by congressional Democrats and the Biden-Harris Administration is driving inflation. The seat is rated a Toss-Up.
• NV-04: Democratic Rep. Steven Horsford is now slightly favored to beat Trump-aligned Republican Sam Peters. Horsford’s fundraising lead is allowing him to dominate the airwaves, with an ad last week claiming Peters wants to cut Social Security and Medicare, abolish the Department of Education, and “stood with January 6 rioters over fallen officers.” In its rating update, Cook Political Report noted the Congressional Leadership Fund bought ads in the other competitive races in Nevada but is not intervening to back Peters. The seat shifted from Toss-Up to Lean Democratic.
• NY-18: At an Ulster County Regional Chamber of Commerce “meet the candidates” breakfast, Rep. Pat Ryan (D) — elected to NY-19 in an August special election — and State Assemblyman Colin Schmitt (R) sparred over abortion and police funding. While Ryan stated that the Dobbs decision is “against who we are as a country,” Schmitt described himself as pro-life and claimed Ryan held “extreme” positions on abortion, such as supporting “taxpayer-funded abortion up to the moment of birth.” This race is rated Lean Democratic.
• NY-19: At a Greater Binghamton Chamber of Commerce economy forum, Democrat Josh Riley and Dutchess County Executive Marc Molinaro (R) found common ground on needing to attract manufacturing businesses relevant to the 21st-century economy, such as battery and semiconductor manufacturers. While Riley wants to build opportunity through federal funding of the Workforce Opportunity and Investment Act, Molinaro argued New York State needs to make its policies more attractive to businesses through fewer regulations and lower taxes. This race is rated a Toss-Up.
• NY-22: A Spectrum News/Siena College poll found Republican Brandon Williams leads Francis Conole (D) 45 to 40 percent in this open redrawn district. However, the poll also found the candidates are still largely unknown to voters, with 55 and 62 percent of voters reporting they have no opinion of Conole and Williams, respectively. In the district, 63 percent of voters said the economy and inflation are the top or second-most pressing issues for them, followed by threats to democracy, abortion, and crime. This race is rated a Toss-Up.
• OR-05: Democrat Jamie McLeod-Skinner and Republican Lori Chavez-DeRemer faced off in a debate touching on a range of contentious issues. McLeod-Skinner’s comments that Chavez-DeRemer, a Hispanic woman, was “white-washing” her stances on issues generated headlines last week. McLeod-Skinner later apologized for a poor choice of words. The seat is rated a Toss-Up.
• OR-06: The Oregon Capital Chronicle reported Republican candidate Mike Erickson was arrested for driving under the influence and possessing oxycodone without a prescription. Erickson is running on tough-on-crime messaging in his race against Democrat Andrea Salinas. Salinas ran an ad about the story, and Erickson responded with a lawsuit seeking $800,000 in damages. A recent internal Erickson poll showed him leading Salinas 44 to 39 percent. The seat shifted from Lean Democratic to Toss-Up.
• PA-07: Rep. Susan Wild (D) is outspending Republican Lisa Scheller, reserving $2.4 million in television ads compared to Scheller’s $1.2 million in this competitive rematch of their 2020 challenge. In their first debate last week, there was figurative and literal finger-pointing over issues like abortion and inflation. The Morning Call reported that the audience became “unruly” and sometimes drowned out the candidates. The Cook Political Report shifted its rating from Lean Republican to a Toss-Up.
• PA-17: An internal mid-September poll conducted by Brilliant Corners for the DCCC showed Democrat Chris Deluzio maintaining a six-point lead over Republican Jeremy Shaffer. Deluzio and Shaffer will debate on November 1. The seat is rated a Toss-Up.
• SC-01: Democratic challenger Annie Andrews made headlines condemning Rep. Nancy Mace (R) for “bigoted attacks” in campaign ads. In a tweet, Mace said Andrews’ support for gender-affirming treatment and “surgery on young kids” as a Medical University of South Carolina pediatrician is “child abuse.” A televised debate between Mace and Andrews is slated for October 19. The race is rated Solid Republican.
• TX-15: Republican Monica De La Cruz is pulling away in the race for this open seat as the DCCC is deprioritizing her Democratic opponent Michelle Vallejo to focus on other competitive seats. Vallejo is receiving support from a range of outside Republican groups targeting the three competitive seats in South Texas. Cook Political Report shifted its rating from Lean Republican to Likely Republican.
• TX-28: One of the most conservative congressional Democrats Rep. Henry Cuellar blasted President Joe Biden for not devoting more resources to law enforcement officers serving on the border. Cuellar faces a tight race against Republican Cassy Garcia. The seat is rated Lean Democratic.
• TX-34: This Member vs. Member race between Reps. Mayra Flores (R) and Vicente Gonzalez (D) is beginning to tighten. Flores represents 75 percent of the newly redrawn district and is focused on campaign themes of “hard work, faith, and border security.” Gonzalez released an ad at the end of September sharing his journey from high school dropout to a lawyer and congressman. Cook Political Report shifted its rating from Lean Democratic to a Toss-Up.
• VA-02: Rep. Elaine Luria (D) tweeted Republican challenger Jen Kiggans would support a national abortion ban and claimed she is too extreme for coastal Virginia. If elected, Kiggans says her priority would be strengthening the economy and tightening border security. The race is one of the most hotly contested in the country, with party control of the district switching four times since 2000. Luria announced a $2.85 million Q3 fundraising haul compared to Kiggans’ $1 million. The seat is rated a Toss-Up.
• VA-07: Democratic Rep. Abigail Spanberger called for new House leadership due to Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s (D-CA) management of a bill barring Members of Congress from trading stocks. Republican challenger Yesli Vega is eager to tie Spanberger to the speaker and Biden. Vega raised $1.5 million in Q3; Spanberger’s report is due by October 15. The seat is rated Lean Democratic.
• WA-03: At a September 27 debate, Marie Gluesenkamp Perez (D) said her opponent Joe Kent (R) “wants to ban all immigration for 20 years to reestablish a white majority.” Kent responded by saying, “I fought for this country for over 20 years, I placed my life in the hands of minorities and people of every single race and creed and sexuality, and they’ve placed their lives in my hands.” Longtime GOP donor David Nierenberg put his money behind the Democratic candidate after Rep. Jaime Herrera Beutler lost the primary. The race is rated Lean Republican.
• WA-08: Rep. Kim Schrier (D) and Republican Matt Larkin will debate on October 28. Crime is expected to be a central theme when the candidates face off. Larkin’s campaign slogan is “make crime illegal again.” As she prepared to leave the Capitol for the campaign trail, Schrier highlighted her support for a bill to provide funding for small police departments. This race is rated as a Toss-Up.

Ratings

The Cook Political Report lists 39 Democratic-held and 17 Republican-held seats as Lean or Toss-Up and rates six Democratic-held seats as Likely or Solid Republican and zero Republican seats as Likely or Solid Democratic. Inside Elections considers 38 Democratic-held and 16 Republican-held seats as Tilt/Lean or Toss-Up, with six Democratic seats as Likely Republican and zero Republican districts as Likely Democratic. Click to enlarge.

SENATE

Republicans continue to receive an overwhelming amount of outside spending help compared to Democratic candidates with substantial war chest advantages. FiveThirtyEight still forecasts Democrats as “slightly favored” to win the Senate. However, momentum is shifting in battleground states, and majority control of the chamber is very much in play.

From the Frontlines

• Arizona: Last Thursday, Democratic Sen. Mark Kelly, GOP candidate Blake Masters, and Libertarian candidate Marc Victor faced off in their only debate where immigration, abortion, and election integrity took center stage. Notably, Kelly distanced himself from Biden’s response on immigration and rising energy costs. FiveThirtyEight’s polling averages show Masters down by six percent, an improvement from 7.6 percent two weeks ago. The RealClearPolitics average shows an even tighter spread of 4.1 percent in favor of Kelly, which decreased from a 6.2 percent lead in late September. This race is rated Lean Democrat.
• Colorado: Former President George W. Bush endorsed and will help fundraise for moderate Republican candidate Joe O’Dea. The fundraiser, which will include Sen. John Cornyn (R-TX), is an additional boost after receiving endorsements from former United Nations Ambassador and South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley and Sen. Tim Scott (R-SC). Democratic Sen. Michael Bennet announced raising over $5 million and reported $4.5 million in cash on hand. FiveThirtyEight’s polling averages show Bennet with a healthy lead of 9.3 percent over O’Dea. This race is rated Lean Democrat.
• Florida: Hurricane Ian left Florida officials scrambling to secure election infrastructure in the face of destroyed polling sites, thousands of homes without power, and a potential shortage of election workers. Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) has emergency powers to resolve some issues, but election overhauls he championed over the past two years may make it politically challenging to provide flexibility. Hurricane damage could potentially impact Sen. Marco Rubio’s (R) campaign, as six of the most heavily damaged counties make up about nine percent of the GOP vote in the state. However, Rubio still is ahead of Rep. Val Demings (D) in the polls, with a Mason/Dixon poll showing a six-point lead. Rubio’s campaign continues to tie Demings to Pelosi and Biden, while Democrats criticize Rubio’s absence from a Senate vote on disaster relief funding. This race is rated Lean Republican.
• Georgia: Herschel Walker (R) faces allegations he urged the mother of one of his children to get an abortion in 2009, despite being a “no exceptions” pro-life candidate. Walker vehemently denies the story, while Walker’s son calls him a liar. Recent polls are inside the margin of error and may not show fallout if any. A Fox News poll conducted before the scandal broke found Sen. Raphael Warnock (D) with a four percent advantage. A Fox 5/InsiderAdvantage poll after news of the scandal broke showed Warnock with only a three-point lead. Though an October 6–7 Emerson College/The Hill poll shows Warnock with a two-point advantage over Walker, improving his lead by four points since its August poll, largely due to an increasing gender gap. National and state Republican leadership is standing with Walker. National Republican Senatorial Committee Chair Rick Scott (R-FL) and Sen. Tim Scott (R-SC) campaigned in the state on Tuesday. Warnock and Walker are scheduled to debate on Friday. Warnock’s campaign announced it raised over $26 million in Q3, with Walker’s fundraising trailing at $12 million over the same period. This race is rated a Toss-Up.
• Nevada: FiveThirtyEight’s polling averages now show GOP candidate Adam Laxalt up by 0.9 percent, taking the slimmest of leads after being down 4.3 percent following the state’s June 14 primary. Helping Laxalt is the Club for Growth, which will spend nearly $2 million in Spanish-language negative ads claiming Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto (D) is soft on crime. Cortez Masto recently received the Nevada Police Union’s endorsement, adding to a back-and-forth tally of law enforcement endorsements of the two former state attorney generals. Cortez Masto also announced raising over $15 million in Q3 and having roughly $5 million cash on hand. This race is rated a Toss-Up.
• New Hampshire: Retired Army Gen. Don Bolduc (R) kicked off his first TV ad campaign on October 4, highlighting his military experience and focus on combatting inflation. Sen. Maggie Hassan (D) has already spent over $2 million on TV ads and has over $6 million more booked through Election Day. Three recent polls from Data for Progress, Saint Anselm College, and the Trafalgar Group show Hassan leading Bolduc by seven, six, and three points, respectively. The race is rated Lean Democrat.
• North Carolina: Last Friday, Rep. Ted Budd (R) and Cheri Beasley (D) faced off in their first — and likely only — debate. Both candidates attempted to tie the other to divisive party leaders. Beasley attacked Budd as a mouthpiece for Trump and a right-wing extremist, while Budd accused Beasley of toeing her party line amid mounting national crises. The two are neck and neck in the race to replace retiring Sen. Richard Burr (R). A WRAL/Survey USA poll has Budd leading by just one point, with 13 percent undecided. Although Beasley’s campaign outspent Budd by nearly $9 million, Republicans are spending almost twice as much on ad buys as Democrats. However, Democrats are planning an additional $4 million to boost Beasley’s campaign. This race is rated Lean Republican.
• Ohio: Republican mega-donor Peter Thiel’s decision to stop fundraising for JD Vance (R) signals his confidence in the general election prospects of the author and former venture capitalist. Vance’s opponent Rep. Tim Ryan (D) announced raising $17.2 million in Q3. RealClearPolitics polling averages give Vance a 0.8 percent lead, while FiveThirtyEight’s polling average shows Ryan maintaining a slim 0.2 percent lead. Vance, however, dismissed polling during a campaign event with Donald Trump Jr. for historically underestimating Republican support. Ryan is appealing to Independent voters as a centrist. During a relatively civil debate on Monday night, Ryan distanced himself from the Administration and Pelosi. Vance framed the November contest as a referendum on what he called failed Democratic leadership in Washington. The race is rated Lean Republican.
• Pennsylvania: Dr. Mehmet Oz (R) continues to gain on Lt. Gov. John Fetterman (D), with the Cook Political Report shifting the race from Lean Democrat to Toss-Up. Oz’s campaign is benefitting from bashing Fetterman for being soft on crime, and outside groups are taking note and hitting back. The gun-safety advocacy organization Everytown launched a $2.1 million ad campaign. Oz’s campaign raised $17.2 million in Q3, including $7 million from Oz himself, while Fetterman’s campaign raised $22 million. Although the latest USA Today/Suffolk University poll and Monmouth University poll show Fetterman with a six- and five-point edge, respectively, the race in the Keystone State will be one of the closest this cycle. The RealClearPolitics average illustrates a closing spread between the candidates, with Fetterman up six percent at the beginning of September compared to his 4.3 percent lead now.
• Wisconsin: Crime continues to be a hot-button issue in Wisconsin, with several Republican attack ads — like “One for the Team” — painting Lt. Gov. Mandela Barnes (D) as soft on crime. Although Barnes’ campaign raised $20 million in Q3, Republicans outspent Democrats by more than $5 million on these attack ads, which are incredibly effective at turning the tide in favor of Sen. Ron Johnson (R). Since August, Barnes’ lead fell from seven points to trailing Johnson by six, according to Marquette University Law School polls. To combat the ads, Barnes refuted claims he wanted to defund the police and attempted to refocus attention on abortion rights during the pair’s first debate. Other key topics included the economy, climate change, and the January 6 attack. The candidates face off in a second and final debate tonight (Thursday, October 13). This race is rated a Toss-Up.

Ratings

The Cook Political Report lists five Democratic-held and five Republican-held seats as Lean or Toss-Up. Inside Elections considers four Democratic-held and four Republican-held seats as Tilt/Lean or Toss-Up. Click to enlarge.

GOVERNORS

Debate season is in full swing in gubernatorial races across the country. Candidates are focusing on crime, abortion, taxes, and spending. Inside Elections joined Cook Political Report in adding Oklahoma to the competitive map.

While Republican Jim Pillen is heavily favored to succeed Nebraska Governor Pete Ricketts, the race became more interesting when news broke Sen. Ben Sasse (R-NE) is likely to resign to become president of the University of Florida. The university’s selection committee does not meet until November 1, and Ricketts is hoping Pillen (a Ricketts ally) will appoint him to fill Sasse’s seat, which is up in 2024. Senate Republican Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) said Wednesday he talked with Ricketts and “we’re hoping that he will end up in the Senate.”

From the Frontlines

• Arizona: The FiveThirtyEight polling average shows Democrat Katie Hobbs neck-and-neck with Republican Kari Lake. On MSNBC, Hobbs criticized Arizona’s new 15-week abortion ban and welcomed cross-partisan support in the form of Rep. Liz Cheney’s (R-WY) endorsement. Lake tweeted a video from a Hispanic Townhall where she appeared alone after Hobbs failed to appear. Hobbs released a statement calling the Fifth Circuit’s DACA decision “devastating.” Lake has a new ad focusing on her plan to address homelessness in Arizona. Hobbs criticized the video by pointing out that Tempe has no “Mills Street.” This race is rated a Toss-Up.
• Florida: In the aftermath of Hurricane Ian, Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) and First Lady Casey DeSantis met with Biden and First Lady Dr. Jill Biden on October 5. The governor said the pair are “cutting through the red tape, and that’s from local government, state government, all the way up to the president, so we appreciate the team effort.” The FiveThirtyEight polling average shows a steady lead for DeSantis since late August, with a 6.5 percent lead over former Democratic Rep. Charlie Crist. According to a Mason-Dixon Polling and Strategy poll, DeSantis leads 52 to 41 percent, with six percent undecided. This race is rated Likely Republican.
• Georgia: Republican Gov. Brian Kemp reported a total of $28.7 million raised in Q3 across his campaign and PAC accounts, a personal record. But Democratic challenger Stacey Abrams eclipsed that by nearly $8 million, bringing in $36.3 million from July through September. On October 4, the Wall Street Journal published an opinion article by Kemp discussing Abrams’ recent court battle. On September 30, a federal judge rejected Abrams’ claim the state’s election process violates Section 2 of the Voting Rights Act. Kemp’s op-ed claims that Abrams “devoted herself to peddling the fiction that her defeat was the result of voter suppression” following their matchup in 2018. She “has a habit of sidestepping facts that fail to suit her chosen narrative.” There is increasing chatter in the state that voters may split their ticket — crossing party lines to choose Kemp and Warnock on their ballot. This race is rated Lean Republican.
• Kansas: Former GOP Sen. Nancy Kassebaum crossed party lines to endorse Democratic Gov. Laura Kelly, despite supporting Derek Schmidt (R) in his previous race for attorney general. Education was a primary topic of interest during the second and final October 5 debate. Kelly claimed that Schmidt is a “threat to adequate funding for public schools” and branded herself “the education governor.” Schmidt rebutted, vowing to protect parents’ voices in what is taught in schools. Last week, Schmidt released an ad claiming Kelly is anti-police. On the same day, Kelly tweeted, “Improving public safety starts with supporting law enforcement.” This race is rated a Toss-Up.
• Maine: In the first debate between Democratic Gov. Janet Mills and former Gov. Paul LePage (R), the candidates discussed taxes and spending, immigration, and the opioid crisis. LePage called Mills a liar when she claimed the GOP candidate supported Trump’s travel restrictions applied to several Muslim-majority countries. After the exchange, a 2017 tweet from then-Gov. LePage resurfaced: “AG Mills speaks for herself on immigration order. I fully support @realDonaldTrump exec action to protect all Americans. #mepolitics #MAGA.” This race is rated a Toss-Up.
• Nevada: Democratic Gov. Steve Sisolak and Republican Sheriff Joe Lombardo participated in their first debate on October 2. The candidates discussed abortion, crime and public safety, the economy, and education. Despite receiving Trump’s endorsement and help from Trump rallies in the state, the Clark County sheriff would not say Trump was a “great” president. He said, “I would not say great; I think he was a sound president.” Lombardo continued by explaining how he was bothered by Trump’s claims of a stolen election in 2020. This race is rated a Toss-Up.
• Oregon: In this three-way race, a September 30-October 1 Emerson College poll shows Republican Christine Drazan ahead of Democrat Tina Kotek and Independent Betsy Johnson, 36 to 34 to 19 percent, respectively. If Drazan wins, it will be the first time in 40 years Oregon has a Republican governor. Nike co-founder Phil Knight recently shifted his financial support from Johnson to Drazan with a $1 million donation. This race is rated a Toss-Up.
• Pennsylvania: Republican Doug Mastriano launched a $1 million television ad campaign highlighting his military leadership experience. Attorney General Josh Shapiro (D) spoke at a Women’s Health Clinic in Philadelphia on October 4 to show support for women’s health care rights. Shapiro called Mastriano’s ideas about abortion “dangerous and extreme.” Mastriano is accused of antisemitism for comments about the Jewish day school Shapiro’s children attend. The Philadelphia Inquirer endorsed Shapiro, calling him ”the clear choice” in this race rated Likely Democratic.
• Texas: On September 30, the first and perhaps only debate between GOP Gov. Greg Abbott and Democratic challenger Beto O’Rourke highlighted the candidates’ stances on guns, abortion, and immigration. Abbott referenced his family’s experience of adopting his daughter when explaining his pro-life stance. Abbott recently clarified his statements about communication with New York City Mayor Eric Adams regarding claims Abbott rebuffed requests for greater coordination regarding plans to send migrants from Texas to New York. Abbott said that while the mayor’s office did send an email, the mayor himself never spoke with the governor. O’Rourke and Abbott each reported raising roughly $25 million in the third quarter. The race is rated Likely Republican.
• Wisconsin: Both parties have spent $55 million since August in the most expensive gubernatorial campaign in the country. Democratic Gov. Tony Evers and his allies spent $38 million, and Republican Tim Michels and his supporters spent $17 million. A September 22–26 Beacon Research/Shaw and Company Research poll shows Evers and Michels tied at 47 percent, while a September 26–27 poll by Public Policy Polling shows Evers with a two-point edge, 48 to 46 percent. Evers recently released an ad highlighting his support for abortion rights. This race is rated a Toss-Up.

Ratings

Cook Political Report lists six Democratic-held and two Republican-held seats as Lean or Toss-Up. Inside Elections lists eight Democratic-held and two Republican-held seats as Tilt/Lean or Toss-Up and two Republican-held seats as Likely Democratic.