Election Update — Issue 3

237 days until Election Day

The 2018 election season is officially underway with the Texas primary in the books and Democrat Conor Lamb declaring victory in the high-profile special election in Pennsylvania’s 18th congressional district. Both parties are reading tea leaves in the aftermath of the contests to predict how they will fare in November. While Texas Democrats are enthusiastic after record turnout, Republicans maintain a strong overall advantage in the state. More significantly, Pennsylvania voters will have a new congressional map, which is expected to shift several seats toward Democrats.

Senator Thad Cochran’s (R-MS) resignation sets up another special election in November where Republicans will look to avoid controversial candidates like Alabama nominee Roy Moore, who could put the otherwise safe seat into play.

Illinois’ primary is up next on March 20 with contentious races in both party’s gubernatorial primaries. Democratic Representative Daniel Lipinski also faces a difficult primary challenge from progressive Marie Newman, who is drawing support from Representatives Jan Schakowsky and Luis Gutierrez as well as Senators Kirsten Gillibrand and Bernie Sanders.

With 237 days to go until Election Day, below is our update with a list of key dates and a state of play for House, Senate, and gubernatorial races.

KEY DATES

HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES

After Lamb’s apparent win, Republicans now hold a 44-seat majority with three vacancies due to resignations: (1) MI-13 (Conyers); (2) AZ-08 (Franks); and (3) OH-12 (Tiberi). Democrats must net at least 23 seats to flip control of the House in the fall.

Texas voters turned out in record numbers for the state’s March 6 primary. Many of these districts are headed to runoffs on May 22 after candidates failed to secure more than 50 percent of the overall vote for their party. Democrats are hopeful their increased turnout will help to drive results in down ballot races while Republicans point to their continued strength among rural voters as key to defending incumbents against national trends.

REDISTRICTING

• Pennsylvania: The state Supreme Court adopted a new congressional map aimed at achieving partisan balance by drawing compact districts and minimizing county and municipal splits. Republicans continue to move to block its implementation, including an emergency request to the U.S. Supreme Court in late February. Pennsylvania’s current 12 Republican and 6 Democrat congressional delegation is expected to shift as Democrats are now favored in at least half of the 18 overall seats. Candidates must file by March 20 with some incumbents facing critical decisions on which districts they will choose to run in for the May 15 primary.

NEWS FROM THE FRONTLINES

• AZ-08: Former State Senator Debbie Lasko won the Republican primary to replace former Representative Trent Franks, who resigned in December after allegations of sexual harassment. Lasko is projected to win the special election in April against Democrat and former emergency room physician Hiral Tipirneni.
• FL-27: Republican TV journalist Maria Salazar filed to run for retiring Republican Representative Ileana Ros-Lehtinen’s open seat after Ros-Lehtinen personally encouraged her to run. Former Health and Human Services (HHS) Secretary and University of Miami President Donna Shalala filed paperwork to run for the seat, which Hillary Clinton won by nearly 20 points.
• GA-06: Democrat Jon Ossoff announced he will not run against Republican Representative Karen Handel after losing the special election to Handel last June. The district is on the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee’s (DCCC) target list. There are currently three Democratic candidates running for the seat, including businessman Kevin Abel, former newscaster Bobby Kaple, and Lucy McBath, a prominent gun control activist.
• IL-03: Incumbent Democratic Representative Dan Lipinski faces a tough primary with members of his own party supporting his challenger because of his socially conservative views. While House Democratic Leader Nancy Pelosi endorsed Lipinski, fellow Illinois Democrats Luis Gutierrez and Jan Schakowsky are backing marketing consultant Marie Newman over him.
• NH-01: Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders’ son, Levi Sanders, announced his run for Democratic Representative Carol Shea-Porter’s seat, who is not seeking re-election. Levi Sanders will face seven other Democratic candidates in the primary, including State Representatives Mark Mackenzie and Mindi Messmer. Notably, the older Sanders did not officially endorse his son but stated his general support.
• PA-18: Democrat Conor Lamb declared victory over Republican State Senator Rick Saccone despite President Donald Trump’s last-minute campaign stop on Saccone’s behalf. Lamb’s record fundraising allowed him to remain up on the airwaves through Election Day while Saccone relied on more than $10 million in outside spending to boost his campaign. High-profile campaign appearances by Trump, Vice President Mike Pence, Donald Trump Jr., and Ivanka Trump along with the President’s Section 232 tariffs on imported steel and aluminum were not enough to boost Saccone across the finish line.
• TX-07: In the race to unseat Republican Representative John Culberson, activist and journalist Laura Moser is moving onto the Democratic runoff despite the DCCC’s intervention. Moser will face attorney Lizzie Fletcher in the runoff. National Democrats fear Moser’s progressive profile could jeopardize a top pickup opportunity.
• TX-23: Former Air Force intelligence officer Gina Ortiz Jones advanced to the Democratic runoff with 41 percent of the vote where she will face former teacher Rick Trevino. The winner will take on Republican Representative Will Hurd in a district Clinton carried by four points in 2016.

POLLING PROJECTIONS

The Cook Political Report lists 74 Republican-held seats as Likely, Lean, or Toss-up as opposed to 19 Democratic-held seats. Similarly, Inside Elections lists 57 Republican-held seats up for grabs as opposed to 12 Democratic-held seats.

SENATE

Mississippi Republican Senator Thad Cochran’s resignation sets up a special election in November, creating additional headaches for Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) and National Republican Senate Committee (NRSC) Chairman Cory Gardner (R-CO) as they look to expand their thin 51-to-49 seat majority. Two states, Minnesota and Mississippi, will not only hold elections for one seat but will also hold elections for unexpected Senate vacancies in the fall. It is unusual for four Senate seats to be up in two states.

Incumbent Senate Democrats continue to look for ways to appeal to the broader electorate with ten facing re-election in states won by Donald Trump in 2016. A recent Axios/SurveyMonkey poll found five Senate Democrats would lose to a Republican candidate if the election were held today and three hold approval ratings under 50 percent. The five most endangered Senators according to the poll were: (1) Jon Tester (D-MT); (2) Joe Manchin (D-WV); (3) Claire McCaskill (D-MO); (4) Joe Donnelly (D-IN); and (5) Heidi Heitkamp (D-ND). The results underscore the significant challenge facing Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee (DSCC) Chairman Chris Van Hollen (D-MD) to defend seats against shifting demographics in deep red states. Intraparty feuds could also threaten to erupt as Senator Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) sent a fundraising email criticizing the 16 Senate Democrats who voted to move forward on banking legislation.

NEWS FROM THE FRONTLINES

• Michigan: Incumbent Democratic Senator Debbie Stabenow is gearing up for a potential tough re-election bid after Donald Trump narrowly won the state in 2016. However, Republicans failed to land top-tier challengers, leaving venture capitalist Sandy Pensler and businessman John James as the leading candidates in the Republican primary. Polling from late January found Stabenow leading both by 51 percent to 30 percent. While Stabenow raised close to $2 million to close out 2017 with $8 million cash on hand, Pensler’s declaration that he would drop $5 million of his own money into his bid could make the race more competitive. Meanwhile, James is drawing support from the Senate Conservatives Fund as well as Representatives Mike Bishop, Paul Mitchell, and Dave Trott.
• Mississippi: Conservative State Senator Chris McDaniel announced his plan to challenge Senator Roger Wicker in the Republican primary. McDaniel, who forced Senator Thad Cochran into a run-off election in the 2014 Republican primary, is hoping to draw conservative support but faces a steeper challenge against Wicker, who holds over $4 million in his campaign account and also received President Trump’s endorsement. Complicating matters is Cochran’s announced resignation, which will set up a special election in November to serve out the remainder of his term through 2021. Republican Governor Phil Bryant, who is term limited in 2019, will not appoint himself to the seat, despite pressure from national Republicans who fear that McDaniel could turn to the special election and put the seat into play. Former Democratic Representative and U.S. Department of Agriculture Secretary Mike Espy announced his intention to run in the special election, giving Democrats a potentially strong recruit.
• Nebraska: First-term Republican Senator Deb Fischer faces nominal opposition ahead of the state’s May 15 Republican primary. Former presidential advisor Steve Bannon named Fischer as one of the top targets for a conservative challenger. Fischer defeated former Democratic Senator Bob Kerrey in 2012, who was running for the seat he held from 1989 to 2001. Lincoln City Councilwoman Jane Raybould represents a strong candidate for the Democratic side.
• Tennessee: After publicly reconsidering his retirement, Republican Senator Bob Corker reaffirmed his decision to step down after his term. Representative Marsha Blackburn remains the frontrunner for the Republican nomination, especially after former Representative Stephen Fincher bowed out of the race and urged Corker to re-enter. Former Democratic Governor Phil Bredesen is already running advertisements highlighting his tenure as governor. However, his campaign alerted the FBI that it may have been hacked, and intelligence experts warn that others could face similar attacks heading into November.
• Texas: Senator Ted Cruz will face Democratic Representative Beto O’Rourke in November after both sailed through their March 6 primaries. O’Rourke reported raising $2.8 million in the lead up to the primary, almost triple Cruz’s $800,000 haul over the same time period. Donald Trump won Texas by 10 points in 2016. Democrats know that winning in Texas is hard even with increased enthusiasm and voter turnout.
• Virginia: The Republican primary field continues to take shape as the party searches for a top-tier challenger to Democratic Senator Tim Kaine. Corey Stewart, who narrowly lost the Republican gubernatorial primary in 2017, quickly jumped into the race, along with evangelical pastor E.W. Jackson and retired U.S. Army Reserve general Bert Mizusawa. State Senator Nick Freitas, who is backed by Senators Rand Paul (R-KY) and Mike Lee (R-UT), entered the race in December.

POLLING PROJECTIONS

The Cook Political Report lists 13 Democratic-held seats as Likely, Lean, or Toss-up as opposed to only four Republican-held seats. Inside Politics lists 10 Democratic seats up for grabs as opposed to two Republican-held seats.

GOVERNORS

Republican governors in blue states continue to work to thread the needle to appeal to moderate voters in their state while also maintaining support from conservatives. A recent Morning Consult poll found blue state Republican governors have some of the highest approval ratings in the country, such as Charlie Baker (R-MA), Larry Hogan (R-MD), and Phil Scott (R-VT). Meanwhile, term limits are creating open races where Democrats hope to flip seats in states such as Georgia and Tennessee.

NEWS FROM THE FRONTLINES

• Arizona: First-term Republican incumbent Doug Ducey faces re-election in a state expected to receive increased national attention due to its open Senate seat. State Senator Steve Farley and Arizona State University professor David Garcia are competing in the Democratic primary. Garcia narrowly lost the 2014 race for State Superintendent of Public Instruction.
• Georgia: Republican Governor Nathan Deal is termed-out in 2018, and the Republican field to replace him remains wide open. Lieutenant Governor Casey Cagle, who made headlines for his attacks on Delta Airlines, remains the front-runner but faces bids from former State Senator Hunter Hill, Secretary of State Brian Kemp, and businessman Clay Tippins. The Democratic primary features former State Representatives Stacey Abrams and Stacey Evans. Abrams is drawing support from national progressive groups and lawmakers such as Representatives David Scott and John Lewis. Evans is backed by former Senator Max Cleland, former Governor Roy Barnes, and others. If no candidate secures over 50 percent of the primary vote, the top two finishers head to a July runoff.
• Kansas: Former Governor Sam Brownback vacated his seat in January to become Ambassador-at-Large for International Religious Freedom, making Lieutenant Governor Jeff Colyer the incumbent heading into November’s election. Colyer will face businessman Wink Hartman, former State Representative Mark Hutton, Secretary of State Kris Kobach, and Insurance Commissioner Ken Selzer in the Republican primary. Democrats have their first contested gubernatorial primary since 1998 with former Wichita Mayor Carl Brewer, State Senator Laura Kelly, former State Representative Josh Svaty, and House Minority Leader Jim Ward all running for the nomination. However, Democrats’ chances could be imperiled by independent Greg Orman, who entered the race in December and whose 2014 independent challenge to Republican Senator Pat Roberts drew national headlines.
• Maryland: First-term incumbent Republican Governor Larry Hogan holds $9 million as he looks to win a second term in the deep blue state. Prince George’s County Executive Rushern Baker leads the wide Democratic field, which also includes former NAACP president Ben Jealous, Baltimore County Executive Kevin Kamenetz, and former Obama policy director Krishanti Vignarajah.
• New Hampshire: Republican Governor Chris Sununu faces the voters again after winning his first term in 2016 given the state’s two-year gubernatorial terms. Sununu is widely popular in the state and leads potential Democratic challenger and former Portsmouth Mayor Steve Marchand by a wide 42 percent to 28 percent margin.
• New Mexico: Term-limited Republican Governor Susana Martinez leaves office deeply unpopular in a state Hillary Clinton won by eight points. Democratic Representative Michelle Lujan Grisham faces Jeff Apodaca, former vice president at Univision and the son of former New Mexico Governor Jerry Apodaca, in a primary where both candidates accuse the other of unsavory behavior. The winner will face Republican Representative Steve Pearce, who lost his previous statewide bid in 2008 against Senator Tom Udall 39 percent to 61 percent.
• Tennessee: Representative Diane Black leads the Republican primary field to replace term-limited Governor Bill Haslam. Republican businessmen Randy Boyd and Bill Lee are already up on the airwaves targeting voters ahead of the state’s August primary. Republican State Speaker of the House Beth Harwell is also running. House Minority Leader Craig Fitzhugh and former Nashville Mayor Karl Deal will face off in the Democratic primary.
• Wisconsin: Governor Scott Walker is running for his third term and warned Republicans that Democrats could seize momentum in the race after they flipped a solidly Republican State Senate district in a January special election. A wide open Democratic field includes State Superintendent of Public Instruction Tony Evers, State Representative Dana Wachs, State Senator Kathleen Vinehout, Madison Mayor Paul Soglin, and others.

POLLING PROJECTIONS

The Cook Political Report lists 16 Republican-held seats as Likely, Lean, or Toss-up as opposed to seven Democratic-held seats. Inside Politics lists 16 Republican seats up for grabs as opposed to five Democratic-held seats.

AD OF THE MONTH

Have you heard Senator Ted Cruz’s new country song? Cruz wasted no time and dropped the jingle shortly after comfortably winning the Republican primary targeting his opponent Democratic candidate Beto O’Rourke.