ELECTION OUTLOOK

Invariant
Invariant
Published in
8 min readJan 17, 2018

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Issue 1: 291 days until Election Day

Campaign season is in full swing as both parties turn their focus to the 2018 midterm elections with all 435 House seats, 34 Senate seats, and 36 governors’ mansions up for grabs. House Speaker Paul Ryan (R-WI) and National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC) Chairman Steve Stivers (R-OH) must protect endangered incumbents from an unfavorable national environment. Meanwhile, Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) and National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC) Chairman Cory Gardner (R-CO) will work to expand their slim 51-to-49 seat majority.

To date, 31 House Republicans are retiring at the end of their term, including eight committee chairmen. In addition, three Republicans Senators will retire, including Senate Finance Committee Chairman Orrin Hatch (R-UT).

National polling and the 2017 election results reveal a highly polarized electorate. Engagement by women candidates is at an all-time high. Today, 354 female House candidates — including 291 Democrats and 63 Republicans — are running for Congress along with 38 Senate candidates, almost 10 times the number in the 2012 and 2014 elections.

With 291 days to go until Election Day, below is our first election update with a list of key dates, a review of the 2017 special election results, and a state of play for House, Senate, and gubernatorial races. Additional updates will be released monthly and then biweekly starting in September.

2017 ELECTION RESULTS

Democrats exceeded predictions in 2017 up and down the ballot, culminating in Doug Jones’ win in December over Roy Moore in Alabama to serve out former Republican Senator Jeff Sessions’ term. African-American voters drove Jones to victory with exit polls showing 98 percent of black women and 93 percent of black men supporting Jones over Moore, higher than former President Barack Obama’s margins in 2012. Meanwhile, Republicans defended open seats in Kansas, South Carolina, Montana, and Georgia from Democratic challengers.

Democrats did find success in state races across the country. In New Jersey, Phil Murphy defeated Lieutenant Governor Kim Guadagno to replace outgoing Republican Governor Chris Christie. In Virginia, Lieutenant Governor Ralph Northam won the race to succeed term-limited Democratic Governor Terry McAuliffe, outperforming Hillary Clinton’s margins in the 2016 presidential election. Virginia Democrats also came within two seats of flipping control of the House of Delegates as Democratic voter turnout surged.

HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES

Republicans hold a 45-seat majority [with four vacancies due to resignations: (1) PA-18 (Murphy); (2) MI-13 (Conyers); (3) AZ-08 (Franks); and (4) OH-12 (Tiberi)]. Democrats must net at least 24 seats to flip control of the House.

RealClearPolitics’ average of generic congressional ballot polling, which asks respondents whether they would support a Democratic or Republican candidate for Congress, shows Democrats holding an 11.4-point lead over Republicans nationwide. That lead, combined with the results from the 2017 elections, would result in a Democratic pickup between 19 and 35 seats if the elections were held today. Such a large shift would also reflect the historical trend of recent wave elections in first-term Presidential midterm elections.

RETIREMENTS AND RECRUITMENT

To date, 31 Republicans and 15 Democrats either resigned or announced their retirement at the end of the 115th Congress. Notably, eight committee chairmen will retire after reaching the House Republican conference’s three-consecutive term limit.

The retirement of long-time incumbents, such as Representatives Charlie Dent (R-PA), Dave Reichert (R-WA), Frank LoBiondo (R-NJ), and Ileana Ros-Lehtinen (R-FL), creates additional seats where Republicans hope strong candidates can keep them under their control. For Democrats, the loss of Representatives Tim Walz (D-MN), Jacky Rosen (D-NV), Ruben Kihuen (D-NV), and Carol Shea-Porter (D-NH) puts their seats into play.

Democrats face a recruitment bonanza going into the 2018 elections with over 200 challengers filing before June 30, 2017 and raising at least $5,000. Over the same time frame, Republicans only have 28 challengers.

However, Democrats must also contend with crowded primaries in places like New York’s 19th congressional district where three candidates are raising significant war chests, including attorney Antonio Delgado ($1,052,989), small business owner Brian Flynn ($1,041,689), and West Point-graduate Pat Ryan ($589,770). They face off in New York’s June 26 primary with the winner taking on first-term incumbent Republican John Faso.

Progressive groups like Swing Left are focusing their time and efforts on the 23 House districts with Republican incumbents that Hillary Clinton won in the 2016 presidential election. These districts are mainly located in upper middle-class suburbs in California, Pennsylvania, Texas, and Virginia, with a concentration of highly-educated white voters. On the other side, Congressional Leadership Fund and American Action Network raised $66 million in 2017 and will look to deploy resources around the country to protect vulnerable House Republicans.

RATINGS

The Cook Political Report lists 63 Republican-held seats as Likely, Lean, or Toss-up as opposed to 21 Democratic-held seats. Similarly, Inside Elections lists 53 Republican-held seats up for grabs as opposed to 13 Democratic-held seats.

PATH TO 218

House Republicans will rely on battle-tested incumbents to defend key races across the country. While demographics favor Democratic challengers in some districts, Members like Mike Coffman (R-CO), Jeff Denham (R-CA), and David Valadao (R-CA) all have won difficult races in the past that attracted increased outside money and attention.

Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) Chairman Ben Ray Lujan (D-NM) will look to ride the national wave against President Donald Trump and capitalize on the unpopularity of congressional Republicans. However, intra-party divisions and primary fights could derail some of the party’s best offensive opportunities.

SENATE

Senate Democrats must defend 26 seats in 2018, including 10 incumbents in states President Trump won in 2016. In addition, newly-appointed Senator Tina Smith (D-MN) must face voters in November to serve out the remainder of former Senator Al Franken’s (D-MN) term. Meanwhile, Senate Republicans will look to expand their 51-to-49 seat majority, while also protecting open seats in Arizona (Flake) and Tennessee (Corker).

Compared to House Republicans, Leader McConnell is enjoying relative stability among his conference. Senators Bob Corker (R-TN), Jeff Flake (R-AZ), and Orrin Hatch (R-UT) will retire at the end of their terms. Instead, McConnell will face potential contested primaries where right-wing candidates, some backed by former presidential advisor Steve Bannon, will look to unseat incumbents. However, Bannon’s recent schism with the President may limit the appeal and credibility he lends on the campaign trail.

Democratic incumbents such as Joe Manchin (D-WV), Heidi Heitkamp (D-ND), Jon Tester (D-MT), and Sherrod Brown (D-OH) face voters who overwhelmingly supported Trump in the 2016 election. While Manchin is attracting strong challengers in Representative Evan Jenkins and Attorney General Patrick Morrisey, Republicans’ struggle to recruit top-tier candidates to challenge Heitkamp, Tester, Brown, and other vulnerable Senate Democrats could hurt their chances.

Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee (DSCC) Chairman Chris Van Hollen (D-MD) said they will defend incumbents and look to build on Alabama Senator Doug Jones’ victory in Alabama. States such as Mississippi, Tennessee, and Texas provide narrow windows of opportunity for strong challengers, like former Tennessee Democratic Governor Phil Bredesen, to capitalize on the national environment and increased Democratic interest.

RATINGS

The Cook Political Report lists 13 Democratic-held seats as Likely, Lean, or Toss-up as opposed to only three Republican-held seats. Inside Politics lists nine Democratic seats up for grabs as opposed to two Republican-held seats.

PATH TO 51

Bannon’s decreasing influence will likely help McConnell and Gardner beat back problematic primary challengers to incumbents and allow the NRSC to focus resources on offensive opportunities across the map. With Republicans playing defense in only ten states, there are multiple opportunities to expand McConnell’s majority.

Democrats hope their incumbents, the majority of whom won re-election in 2012 despite sharing the ticket with former President Barack Obama, are able to outrun the party’s recent performance in their respective states. At the same time, open seats in Arizona and Tennessee are must-win races if Democrats are to net the two seats necessary to grab control of the Senate.

GOVERNORS

This year, 36 governors’ mansions are up for grabs as Republicans defend 26 seats while Democrats must protect nine (Alaska Governor Bill Walker is an independent). Nearly half are open seats with 16 governors reaching term limits or not seeking re-election. Democrats must protect seats in Colorado and Minnesota where popular incumbents, Governors John Hickenlooper (D-CO) and Mark Dayton (D-MN), are concluding their second terms. Republicans are hoping to maintain control in Florida, Maine, Michigan, Nevada, and New Mexico where Republican incumbents are reaching their term limits.

Popular first-term Republican incumbents such as Governors Charlie Baker (R-MA), Larry Hogan (R-MD), and Phil Scott (R-VT) will rely on their personal brands and appeal to overcome the national environment as they seek another term from blue-state voters.

In California, an expensive primary is underway to succeed retiring Governor Jerry Brown with Democrats Lieutenant Governor Gavin Newsom and former Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa leading the pack of well-funded candidates. California’s top-two finisher jungle primary could leave Republicans without a general election candidate, but former Representative Doug Ose gives Golden State Republicans a strong challenger.

RATINGS

The Cook Political Report lists 15 Republican-held seats as Likely, Lean, or Toss-up as opposed to only three Democratic-held seats. Inside Politics lists 16 Republican seats up for grabs as opposed to five Democratic-held seats.

Invariant is an innovative, bipartisan government relations firm providing strategic advice to companies, trade associations, non-profits, and individuals on how to make Washington work for them.

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Innovative, bipartisan government relations and communications firm providing strategic advice to companies, trade associations, non-profits, and individuals.